For many, a successful marriage can be put down to attraction, devotion, patience – and true love. But one group of statisticians begs to differ.

They have developed a distinctly unromantic formula to predict how compatible a couple are based on their ages, education and previous divorces.

The experts claim their theory can tell in advance that some couples are up to five times more likely to end up getting divorced than others.

According to the study, the couples with the best chance are those where a woman with a superior education marries a man who is five or more years older than herself.

Neither should be a divorcee.

By comparison, a marriage where a woman partners an equally poorly educated male divorcee who is five or more years her junior is up to five times more likely to fail.

The study is good news for David Cameron, 43, and wife Samantha, 38. Meanwhile, US President Barack Obama, 48, and wife Michelle, 45, may have only a three-year difference in age but have been married for 17 years.

But the study may not be welcomed by Michael Douglas, 65, and his 40-year-old wife Catherine Zeta-Jones – the research suggests a marriage is more likely to fail if only one partner has been previously¹ divorced, and Douglas was married once before.

Academics including Dr Emmanuel Fragnière of the University of Bath studied interviews with 1,534 Swiss couples who were either married or in a serious relationship. Five years later they followed up 1,074 of the couples to see which had separated.

Using the data collected about their age, education, nationality and previous relationships, they found the factors that many of those who broke up had in common.

Psychologists then analysed the importance of each factor to build up profiles of an ideal marriage and a nightmare couple. With age, they found that if the wife is five or more years older than her husband, they are more than three times as likely to divorce than if they were the same age.

With education, couples in which neither partner has studied much are the most likely to break up. Those where both are well educated are half as likely to divorce.

对于很多人来说，成功的婚姻可以归因于吸引力、奉献、耐心以及真爱。而日前的一组统计学家却有不同看法。

这些研究人员基于夫妻双方的年龄、受教育程度和婚史推出了一套可测算夫妻关系和谐度的、完全不浪漫的公式。

专家称，根据他们的这一理论可推算出，一些夫妻的离婚几率可比其他人高五倍。

根据该研究，如果妻子的受教育程度高于丈夫，且丈夫比妻子大五岁或者更多，那么应该是最理想的搭配。

此外，两人都没有婚史。

相比之下，如果女方和男方的受教育程度都较低，男方曾离异，且比女方小五岁或以上，那么他们离婚的几率会增加五倍。

这对于（英国保守党领袖）43岁的戴维•卡梅伦和他的妻子、38岁的萨曼莎来说应该是个好消息。此外，美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马（48岁）和妻子米歇尔（45岁）尽管只差三岁，但他们的婚姻已维持了17年。

但迈克尔•道格拉斯（65岁）和妻子凯瑟琳•泽塔-琼斯（40岁）可能不会喜欢这套公式。研究表明，如果夫妻中只有一方曾离异，那么两人离婚的几率较大，而道格拉斯之前就有过一次婚史。

包括巴斯大学的伊曼纽尔•弗拉尼耶博士在内的研究人员们对1534对瑞士情侣进行了调查，这些受访者或者已结婚，或者正在恋爱。五年之后，研究人员又回访了其中的1074对，看哪些人已经分手。

研究人员通过分析所收集的受访者的年龄、受教育程度、国籍和婚史资料，发现了那些分手的人之间存在的一些共同点。

之后，心理学家对每个因素的重要性进行了分析，然后构造出理想夫妻和“噩梦”夫妻的大致模式。研究人员发现，从年龄来看，如果妻子比丈夫大五岁或更多，他们离婚的几率要比同龄夫妻大三倍。

从受教育程度看，受教育水平都很低的夫妻最容易离婚。而双方都接受过良好教育的夫妻离婚几率会减半。