Using prediction models, British and Australian researchers found that improving efficiency, increasing carbon capture and reducing fossil fuel dependence¹ in farming would not be enough to meet emissions² targets.

But combining these steps with a 30 percent reduction in livestock³ production in major meat-producing nations and a similar cut in meat-eating, would lead to "substantial population health benefits" and cut emissions, they said.

The study found that in Britain, a 30 percent lower intake⁴ of animal-source saturated⁵ fat by adults would reduce the number of premature⁶ deaths from heart disease by some 17 percent -- equivalent to 18,000 premature deaths averted⁷ in one year.

In Sao Paulo, Brazil, it could mean as many as 1,000 premature deaths averted in a year, they said.

According to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, 18 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions are from meat production and experts say rising demand for meat, particularly in countries with growing economies, could drive livestock production up by 85 percent from 2000 levels by 2030.

The scientists said global action was needed to maximize the benefits of cutting meat production and consumption, and that the environmental advantages "may apply only in those countries that currently have high production levels."

The study was published in The Lancet medical journal as part of a series in climate change and health ahead of the Copenhagen global climate summit scheduled next month.

In a second study, British scientists found that increased walking and cycling, and fewer cars, would have a much greater impact on health than low-emission vehicles in rich and middle-income countries.

Andrew Haines, director of the London School of Hygiene⁸ and Tropical Medicine and head of the research series, said delegates at Copenhagen needed "to understand the potential health impacts of their plans."

英国和澳大利亚的研究人员通过使用预测模型进行研究后发现，仅靠提高能源使用率、增加碳收集以及降低农业对矿物燃料的依赖还不足以实现减排目标。

但研究人员称，如果在此基础上将肉类主要生产国的家畜产量和肉类消费分别降低30%，则可“极大增进人们的健康”，同时减少碳排放。

研究发现，在英国，如果成年人摄入的动物饱和脂肪量减少30%，那么因心脏病而早逝的病例数可减少17%，相当于一年避免1.8万例早死病例。

研究人员称，在巴西圣保罗市，这意味着每年可避免一千个早死病例。

联合国粮农组织的数据显示，18%的温室气体排放来自于肉类生产。专家称，到2030年，不断增长的肉类需求，尤其是发展中经济体的肉类需求，将推动家畜产量在2000年的基础上增长85%。

科学家表示，世界各国需采取行动，将减少肉类生产消费的益处最大化，由此产生的环境优势“可能只适用于目前肉类生产量较高的国家”。

该研究报告在《柳叶刀》医学期刊上发表，在下月的哥本哈根全球环境峰会召开前，该杂志刊发了一系列有关气候变化与健康的文章。

在另一项研究中，英国科学家发现，在富裕和中等收入国家，多走路骑车、少开车对于健康的益处比乘坐低排放量的交通工具要大很多。

该系列研究的负责人、伦敦卫生与热带医学院主任安德鲁•海恩斯称，哥本哈根峰会的与会代表们需“认清他们制定的计划对于健康的潜在影响”。