研究：50年后亚裔将成美最大移民群体

The ranks of immigrants and their children will grow to hit a record share of the US population in the second half of this century, new projections¹ show, with Asian immigration taking over as the major source of population growth.

皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)一项新的预测显示，本世纪下半叶，外来移民及其子女在美国人口中的占比将升至创纪录水平，亚裔移民将接棒成为美国人口增长的主要来源。

The forecasts show the extent to which immigration will reshape the US population in the coming decades, even as politicians including Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump² use hostility³ towards foreigners to appeal to significant parts of the electorate⁴.

该预测显示出未来几十年移民将在多大程度上重塑美国人口格局，尽管包括共和党总统候选人唐纳德礠朗普(Donald Trump)在内的一些政客正通过敌视外国人来拉拢大量选民支持自己。

The report from the Pew Research Center finds that foreign-born individuals and their children will comprise no less than 36 per cent of the US population by 2065, higher than the peaks reached at the beginning of the 20th century and up from 26 per cent now. The ranks of foreign-born individuals alone will also rise to a record.

这份研究报告发现，到2065年时，海外出生的人及其子女将至少占美国人口的36%，不但比现在的26%要高，而且高于20世纪初达到的峰值。即使只考虑海外出生的人本身，其数量也将升至创纪录水平。

The research finds that the largest driver of US population growth over the next five decades will be immigration from Asian countries, with the expansion overtaking arrivals of Hispanics.

该研究发现，未来50年美国人口增长的最大驱动因素将是来自亚洲国家的移民，这一移民群体的扩张将超过拉美裔移民。

By 2065, Asians are projected to become the largest immigrant group, at 38 per cent of the immigrant population, surpassing Hispanics, at 31 per cent. Overall, the immigrant population will soar to 78m by 2065, compared with 45m today, with a growth rate double that of the US-born population.

到2065年时，预计亚裔将成为最大的移民群体，占全部移民人口的38%，而拉美裔占31%。总体来说，到2065年时美国的外来移民人口将飙升至7800万（现在为4500万），增长速度是美国境内出生人口增速的两倍。

The outlook comes as controversy⁵ over immigration plays a big role in the presidential election debate. Mr Trump’s attacks on Mexicans have raised fears among Republican strategists that the party will alienate⁶ Hispanic voters when they are becoming a powerful voice at the ballot⁷ box.

移民问题引发的争论如今正是美国总统大选辩论的重头戏。特朗普对墨西哥裔移民的抨击引起了共和党内战略家的担忧，他们担心在拉美裔选民成为投票箱前一支重要力量之际，共和党会疏远这些选民。

His words pander⁸ to a belief that illegal immigrants are still flooding into the US. Yet the ranks of unauthorised immigrants in the US stayed static between 2009 and 2014, Pew numbers showed, as illegal arrivals from Mexico slowed.

特朗普的言论迎合了某些人的一种看法，即非法移民仍在如潮水般涌入美国。然而皮尤的数据显示，2009年到2014年间，美国非法移民数量没有什么变化，而墨西哥裔非法移民的流入有所减缓。

“We are basing our trends on the patterns we have seen over the last 10 years,” said Jeffrey Passel, senior demographer⁹ at the research centre.

皮尤资深人口统计学家杰弗里帕塞尔(Jeffrey Passel)说：“我们是基于过去10年观察到的模式得出这一发展趋势的。”

Pew polling shows Americans deeply divided over benefits of further immigration, with 55 per cent of Democrats¹⁰ saying immigrants make US society better while 53 per cent of Republicans say immigrants make society worse.

皮尤的民调显示，对于进一步的移民流入是否有好处，美国人的看法存在严重分歧，55%的民主党人认为外来移民让美国社会变得更好，53%的共和党人认为让社会变得更糟。

The US population is expected to reach 441m by 2065, compared with 324m today, with 88 per cent of the increase linked to future immigrants and their descendants, says the report.

皮尤的报告显示，预计到2065年时美国人口将达4.41亿（现在为3.24亿），88%的人口增长与未来的移民及其后裔有关。