The oil market “could drown in oversupply¹” as a rise in Iranian output offsets³ production cuts elsewhere, threatening a further price collapse⁴, the world’s leading energy forecaster has said.

全球顶尖能源预测机构国际能源署(IEA)表示，石油市场“可能会被供应过剩淹没”，伊朗石油产量的增加将抵消掉其他国家减产的影响，这可能导致油价进一步下挫。

In a stark⁵ assessment⁶ of the challenges facing the global oil industry, the International Energy Agency warned on Tuesday of an overhang of at least 1m barrels a day for a third consecutive⁷ year in 2016.

周二，IEA在这份对全球石油业面临的挑战进行的严峻评估中警告称，今年供应过剩的规模将连续第三年达到每日至少100万桶。

Production outside the Opec cartel would decline this year, the IEA said. But that would be offset² by slower demand growth and higher production from Iran now that sanctions linked to its nuclear programme had been lifted.

IEA表示，石油输出国组织（Opec，简称：欧佩克）以外国家的石油产量今年将下滑。但石油需求放缓以及伊朗产量增加将抵消掉这一下滑。伊朗受到的与核计划有关的制裁现在已被解除。

“Unless something changes, the oil market could drown in oversupply,” the wealthy nations’ energy watchdog said in its closely watched monthly oil market report.

IEA在其受到密切关注的月度石油市场报告中表示：“除非情况发生变化，否则石油市场可能会被供应过剩淹没。”

It said if Iran — a powerful member of the producers’ group — moved quickly to offer its oil under attractive terms and its Opec peers such as Saudi Arabia refused to “stay on the sidelines”, prices could lurch⁸ lower.

IEA表示，如果伊朗（欧佩克的强大成员国之一）迅速采取行动、以有吸引力的条件供应石油，而沙特等其他欧佩克成员国拒绝“离场观望”，油价可能会继续下跌。

Oil prices have tumbled almost 75 per cent in 18 months as the largest producer countries have refused to give ground, with supplies and inventories⁹ ballooning to near-record levels.

油价已在18个月内下跌了近75%，原因是大型产油国拒绝让出市场份额，石油供应和库存急剧增加、逼近历史高点。

Global oil stocks rose by 1bn barrels in 2015 from the year before and the IEA has forecast a further increase of 285m barrels over the course of 2016.

2015年的全球石油库存较上一年的水平增加了10亿桶。IEA预测，2016年全年，石油库存还会再增加2.85亿桶。

Overall the IEA expects demand growth to moderate from almost 1.7m b/d in 2015 to 1.2m b/d this year.

IEA预测，总体而言，石油需求增幅将从2015年的每日近170万桶降至今年的每日120万桶。