S&P yesterday lowered its outlook on Fosun International’s BB-minus rating to negative, illustrating¹ that even rating agencies cannot agree on the risks of a debt-fuelled deal spree.

标准普尔(S&P)昨日将复星国际(Fosun International)的评级展望从BB-下调至负面，这表明就连各评级机构也无法就债务驱动的并购热潮的风险形成共识。

The move came just a month after rival Moody’s took a more sanguine² view of the Chinese conglomerate³, upgrading its outlook on the ratings of Fosun Group’s flagship listed company from “negative” to “stable”.

就在一个月前，标普竞争对手穆迪(Moody’s)对这家中国综合企业集团持更乐观态度，将复星国际旗舰上市公司的评级展望从“负面”上调至“稳定”。

Fosun, founded by Guo Guangchang, is China’s largest private company and also one of its most acquisitive.

复星国际由郭广昌创建，是中国最大民营企业，也是最具收购意识的中国企业之一。

It has scooped⁴ up Club Med, the French holiday operator, a stake in Cirque du Soleil and another in Thomas Cook, the UK holiday group. The group has also spent more than $4bn buying insurance assets.

该集团一举收购法国度假运营商地中海俱乐部(Club Med)，购入太阳马戏团(Cirque du Soleil)部分股权，同时持有英国度假集团Thomas Cook部分股权。该集团还斥资逾40亿美元收购保险资产。

But Fosun has recently gone quiet on the deal front after Mr Guo disappeared for four days in December in connection with a Chinese corruption⁵ probe. He was not a target of the investigation⁶ but was helping⁷ authorities, people close to the company said at the time.

但在去年12月郭广昌因协助一桩中国腐败调查失踪4天后，复星最近在并购方面偃旗息鼓。当时据了解该公司的人士称，他并非腐败调查的目标，而是在协助官方调查。

Fosun has aimed to copy the success of Warren Buffett by using its insurance operations to provide fresh investment capital for new deals. But S&P said yesterday that the group was still reliant on its other units to generate profits in the near term.

复星力求仿效沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的成功，利用保险业务为新的交易提供新的投资资金。但标普昨日表示，该集团近期内仍将依赖其他业务实现盈利。

“The negative outlook reflects our expectation that Fosun’s leverage⁸ for its industrial operations will remain high over the next 12 months,” S&P said.

标普表示：“负面展望反映出我们预期，未来12个月期间复星工业业务的杠杆将居高不下。”

“The prospect⁹ of a material leverage reduction is uncertain, despite our expectation that Fosun will focus on consolidating¹⁰ its existing investments instead of more aggressive acquisitions in the near term.”

“杠杆实质性下降的前景仍不确定，尽管我们预计，复星近期将把重点放在整合现有投资方面，而非更多咄咄逼人的并购。”

Moody’s, however, seems more confident. It revised the company to a stable Ba3 outlook (equivalent to BB at S&P) last month, writing: “The stable outlook reflects Fosun’s demonstrated ability to maintain its access to the funding markets and improve its debt maturity¹¹ profile, as well as Moody’s expectation that the company will prudently¹² manage its expansion and strengthen its financial profile according to plan.”

然而，穆迪似乎更有信心。上月，该机构将其对该公司的评级展望调整至稳定的Ba3（相当于标普的BB级），并写道：“稳定展望反映出，复星展现出有能力继续利用融资市场并改善其债务期限结构，还反映出穆迪预计，复星将按计划审慎管理其扩张并强化其财务状况。”

According to S&P, Fosun’s non-financial assets accounted for 45 per cent of its total assets, but 81 per cent of its revenues at the end of last year.

据标普称，复星的非金融资产占全部资产的45%，但去年底占到了收入的81%。

Shares are down 8.6 per cent this year.

复星股价今年累计下跌8.6%。