As a metaphor¹ for the benefits of education, that statement is fine. But taken as a claim about the financial returns of a college degree, it poses two problems.

第一个问题是，学生和他们的家人仍然缺少充足的数据，他们无法像股票和债券投资者那样估算特定大学学位的长期回报。

The first is that students and their families still lack sufficient data to estimate long-term returns for specific college degrees the way investors² do with stocks and bonds.

其二是投资风险问题。股票投资者可以通过购买多元化股票投资组合来管理风险，但大学生则只能把注全压在单一资产上：他自己。

The second problem is one of investment risk. Stock investors can manage risk by buying a diverse basket of shares, but a college student bets on a single asset: himself.

因此，对学生和他们的家人来说，了解影响大学投资风险和回报的因素具有至关重要的意义，这样才能做出有利于己的决定。

That makes it crucial that students and their families understand the factors that affect the risk and return of a college investment in order to swing the math in their favor.

上大学能带来更高的收入：美国劳工统计局(U.S. Bureau of Labor³ Statistics)称，去年拥有学士学位的人收入中值为一周1,053美元，而没上过大学的高中毕业生为一周638美元。去年大学毕业生的失业率为4.9%，而没上过大学的人失业率为9.4%。

College brings higher pay: $1,053 a week for the median bachelor's degree holder⁴ last year, versus⁵ $638 for a high school graduate with no college, says the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Last year's unemployment rate was 4.9% for college grads versus 9.4% for those with no college.

非营利组织美国大学理事会(College Board)在2010年的一份报告中（基于2008年数据）计算出，一个18岁入读四年制大学、并且大学阶段一直贷款的普通学生到33岁可以收回上大学的全部成本，包括因读大学而放弃的工资以及贷款利息。

The College Board, a not-for-profit association, calculated in a 2010 report (based on 2008 data) that a typical student who enters a four-year college at age 18 and borrows his way through earns enough by age 33 to make up for his costs, including foregone wages and loan interest.

假如一只债券也能在相同的时间里收回投资成本，那么它的年收益率应该在5%到6%之间。这个收益率水平是不错的；将通货膨胀因素考虑在内，股票投资的历史收益率在7%左右。另外，该报告并没有谈到上大学的其他益处，比如开启心智、获得乐趣和较高的工作满意度。

If a bond paid for itself that quickly, the return would be between 5% and 6% a year. That's a handsome payoff; stocks have historically returned around 7% a year after inflation. And it says nothing of college's other benefits, such as enlightenment, fun and higher job satisfaction.

有两个地方需要着重指出：大学理事会的估算假定所有人念的都是公立大学。公立大学的费用通常比私立大学便宜──常常会便宜很多──这就推高了回报。此外，该报告也没有考虑辍学或延期毕业等问题。哈佛大学教育学研究生院(Harvard Graduate School of Education)去年发布的一份报告显示，进入四年制大学学习的学生仅有56%在六年内取得学士学位。

Two big caveats⁶: The College Board math assumes everyone goes to a public college. Those usually cost less than private ones─often a lot less─and that skews returns higher. The report also doesn't account for dropouts or extra college years. Only 56% of students who enroll⁷ in a four-year college earn a bachelor's degree within six years, according to a report last year by the Harvard Graduate School of Education.

位于西雅图的数据统计公司PayScale考察了薪酬与大学和主修专业等变量的关系。该分析也未考虑退学者，但考虑了延期完成学位的学生。研究发现，853所学校的所有专业平均年回报率为4.4%。此项研究假定学生能获得助学金（多数学生都有）。

PayScale, a Seattle data firm, examines the links between pay and variables like colleges and majors. Its analysis, which also ignores dropouts but accounts for students who take longer to complete their degrees, finds an average yearly return of 4.4% for degrees from 853 schools. That assumes students get financial aid, as most do.

学校与学校之间的回报水平差别很大；有超过100所学校的回报率为负，加州哈维玛德学院(Harvey Mudd College)、佐治亚理工学院(Georgia Institute of Technology)、弗吉尼亚大学(University of Virginia)等学校的年回报率超过11%。达特茅斯学院(Dartmouth)、哈佛(Harvard)、斯坦福(Stanford)和普林斯顿(Princeton)的回报率超过10%，不过纽约的皇后学院(Queens College)回报率也在10%以上──因为纽约州居民一年只需要支付5,000美元多一点的学费，而斯坦福一年的学费则为41,000美元左右。

Returns vary sharply; they are negative for more than 100 schools and over 11% a year for ones like Harvey Mudd College in California, the Georgia Institute of Technology and the University of Virginia. Dartmouth, Harvard, Stanford and Princeton are over 10%, but so is Queens College in New York─where state residents pay just over $5,000 a year in tuition, versus about $41,000 for Stanford.

PayScale的分析师凯蒂•巴尔达罗(Katie Bardaro)称，回报最低的一般是主要开设护理、刑事司法、社会学和教育学等专业的学校。回报最佳的通常是工程、计算机科学、经济学和自然科学等专业较强的学校。

The worst returns tend to come from schools whose programs focus on nursing, criminal justice, sociology and education, says Katie Bardaro, an analyst⁸ at PayScale. The best returns are often from schools with strong engineering, computer science, economics and natural-science programs.

不过事物也有另外一面。巴尔达罗说，“要想成功地拿到工程专业学位要困难得多。”

There's a flip⁹ side: 'It's a lot harder to successfully graduate from those engineering programs,' says Ms. Bardaro.

PayScale的分析未将一个学校的某一特定专业与其他学校相同专业进行对比。前美国教育统计专员(U.S. Commissioner¹⁰ of Education Statistics)、智囊机构美国研究协会(American Institutes for Research)副主席马克•施耐德(Mark Schneider)称，“在我们搞清楚这个问题之前，学生、学校指导老师和政策制定者都有些盲目。”

PayScale's analysis doesn't show how a specific degree from one school compares with that same degree from another school. 'Until we know that, students, school counselors¹¹ and policy makers¹² are flying blind,' says Mark Schneider, former U.S. Commissioner of Education Statistics and vice¹³ president of American Institutes for Research, a think tank.

施耐德建立了一家名为College Measures的数据统计公司来收集这类数据，并希望在今年晚些时候报告他的发现。此外，美国教育部(U.S. Department of Education)近期将发布“有酬就业”数据，其中包括贷款偿还率和负债收入比率数据。该信息意在揭示哪些学校合理利用了联邦助学资金，但它也将为我们了解教育回报情况提供线索。

Mr. Schneider set up a data firm, College Measures, to collect such data, and hopes to report his findings later this year. In the meantime, the U.S. Department of Education is set to release 'gainful employment' data as soon as this coming week, including loan-repayment rates and debt-to-income ratios. The information is meant to show which schools are putting federal aid to good use, but it will also provide clues to returns.

总部位于华盛顿的游说团体大学学费和绩效中心(Center for College Affordability¹⁴ and Productivity)负责人、俄亥俄大学(Ohio University)教授理查德•维德(Richard Vedder)称，在我们能够更加准确地预计大学的回报之前，学生和他们的家人应该考虑减少投资风险。毕竟，未偿还学生贷款现在已经超过了信用卡债务总额，就连宣布破产的人一般也还是要偿还学生贷款。

Until we can predict college returns more accurately¹⁵, students and their families should think in terms of reducing investment risk, says Richard Vedder, an Ohio University professor and director of the Center for College Affordability and Productivity, a Washington-based advocacy group. After all, outstanding student loans now eclipse total credit-card debt, and even bankruptcy¹⁶ filers don't typically get out from under their school loans.

首先要对学业成绩进行实事求是的评估。维德说，成绩好、考试分数高的高中学生有可能进入好学校，获得较高的投资回报。而中不溜的学生可以通过上成本较低的州立和社区大学来降低风险，如果他们在大学里成绩好的话，或许可以在两年后转学到其他学校。

Start with a frank assessment¹⁷ of performance. High school students with high grades and excellent test scores are likely to go to good schools and earn high returns on their investment, says Mr. Vedder. Middling performers can reduce risk by going to low-cost state and community colleges, perhaps transferring to another school after two years if they do well.

大学理事会的分析师詹妮弗•马(Jennifer Ma)称，关于这个问题，只要能削减上大学的成本就可以降低投资风险。上大学的头两年住在家里对学生的社交生活没什么好处，但有可能提升他的投资回报。

For that matter, anything that cuts college costs reduces investment risk, says Jennifer Ma, a College Board analyst. Living at home for the first two years of school won't do wonders for a student's social life, but it's likely to boost his returns.

施耐德说，学生应该对扣除预期助学金后的大学净成本进行比较。（他们可以利用政府的大学导航(College Navigator)工具估算出净成本）。施耐德说，风险最大的投资是上费用高、没什么名气又不提供很多助学金的文理学院。反之，如果一个费用高的学校有名气而且助学金多，或许也是“值得投资”的。

Mr. Schneider says students should compare net college costs after projected aid. (They can approximate net costs using the government's College Navigator tool) The riskiest¹⁸ investment is a high-cost liberal-arts college that lacks a strong brand name and doesn't offer much aid, says Mr. Schneider. By contrast, a high-cost school with a strong brand and plenty of aid may be a 'good buy.'

PayScale的巴尔达罗称，学生应该先认真研究一下毕业后能拿到多少钱，再决定要花多少钱上大学。毕竟，将通货膨胀因素考虑在内的话，学杂费在过去20年里上涨了184%，但美国劳工部(Labor Department)的数据显示，大学毕业生的薪资只上涨了9%。

PayScale's Ms. Bardaro says students should research carefully the pay they are likely to secure before deciding how much to spend on college. After all, tuition and fees have increased 184% in 20 years after accounting¹⁹ for inflation, but wages for college grads have risen just 9%, according to Labor Department data.

奥巴马的投资建议用意是好的，但大学和华尔街一样都无法确保投资回报。

Mr. Obama's investment tip is well-intentioned, but in college as on Wall Street, returns aren't guaranteed.