It can take a long time for new ideas to catch on in the payments world. Plastic debit¹ and credit cards, for example, account for half of payments in the UK and US, but it has taken more than 60 years to get there. Globally, cash is still dominant².

支付领域的新想法可能需要很长时间才能得到推广。例如，塑料借记卡和信用卡在英国和美国占到一半的支付份额，但它们是花了60多年才做到这一点的。就全球而言，现金支付仍占主导地位。

Despite being 15 years old, online payment system PayPal only accounts for about 10 per cent of online payments, says Bob Graham, senior vice-president for banking³ and financial services at consulting firm Virtusa.

咨询公司Virtusa负责银行业和金融服务的高级副总裁鲍勃•格雷厄姆(Bob Graham)表示，尽管已有15年的历史，但在线支付系统PayPal仅占在线支付市场大约10%的份额。

The online payments market is still small, accounting⁴ for just 2-3 per cent of consumer transactions worldwide, says Patrick Collison, co-founder of payment service Stripe. According to some estimates, there are 366bn non-cash transactions each year.

支付服务公司Stripe联合创始人帕特里克•科利森(Patrick Collison)表示，在线支付市场规模仍然很小，只占到全世界消费交易的2%-3%。根据某些估算，每年非现金交易规模达3660亿美元。

However, the online payments market is expected to grow, not least because consumers want easier ways to pay for goods. Businesses also want more efficient mechanisms⁵ to handle trade invoices⁶ and payments.

然而，在线支付市场有望增长，主要是因为消费者希望以更便利的方式付款。企业也希望有更高效的机制来处理交易票据和支付事宜。

Barriers for new payment systems include cost and rates of adoption⁷. Retailers⁸ have to pay for tills and card readers and banks have to put in software to process payments. New payment systems need to reach a point where there are enough cards, tokens or apps in circulation, and enough tills, ticket barriers, or websites willing to accept them, to justify⁹ any investment.

推广新支付系统的障碍包括成本和采用率。零售商不得不花钱购置收银机和读卡器，银行不得不安装软件来处理支付事宜。只有当银行卡、口令牌或应用程序足够普及，同时还有足够的收银台、检票口或者网站愿意接受它们，新的支付系统才值得投资。

Despite this, there is no shortage of newcomers, such as PayM and Barclays’ Pingit in the UK, Swish in Sweden, or Apple Pay, looking for customers.

即便存在障碍，新支付系统也在不断涌现，比如英国的PayM和巴克莱(Barclays)的Pingit，瑞典的Swish或者Apple Pay。

These are likely to succeed or fail based on the experience of consumers. Unless they are secure and convenient, they will remain niche¹⁰ technologies.

这些在线支付技术可能成功也可能失败，关键看用户体验。除非非常安全和便利，否则它们将依然是小众技术。

A million people signed up to Apple Pay (a mobile wallet app that lets consumers make contactless payments with their phones) in its first week of operation in October. But this is tiny compared with the plastic cards market, says Mr Graham.

今年10月，Apple Pay（一种移动钱包应用，让消费者通过手机非接触式支付）上线第一周就有100万人注册。但格雷厄姆表示，与塑料银行卡市场相比，这种数量微不足道。

John Skipper, a technology expert at PA Consulting, says payment systems have to be easy for consumers. He says a big barrier to adoption has been confusion about how systems work. Pingit was a success among Barclays’ customers because it was clear and straight­forward to use. But, he adds, it failed to become widely adopted, because it was too inaccessible¹¹ for non-Barclays customers.

PA Consulting的技术专家约翰•斯基珀(John Skipper)表示，支付系统必须让消费者易于使用。他说，采用支付系统的一大障碍是人们不明白其工作原理。Pingit之所以在巴克莱的客户中取得成功，是因为它的使用方法简单明了。但他补充称，Pingit之所以未能推广开，是因为非巴克莱的客户使用不便。

Another problem for newcomers is that the variety of payment systems is deterring¹² retailers from investing in the technology, as they wait for global standards to emerge.

新进入这一行业的企业面临的另一个问题是，现在的支付系统五花八门，这使得零售商不愿投资于这种技术，它们等待相关方制定全球标准。

But perhaps the greatest change is the way consumers use smartphones to make purchases. To pay by a card on a smartphone, says Jean Lassignardie, chief marketing¹³ officer at Capgemini Financial Services, means typing in a card number and an address, which can be awkward, so a an electronic wallet or PayPal is a strong alternative.

但是最大的改变或许在于消费者使用智能手机购物的方式。英国凯捷金融服务(Capgemini Financial Services)首席营销官吉恩•拉西格纳蒂尔(Jean Lassignardie)表示，在智能手机上用银行卡支付意味着要输入卡号和地址，这可能有些不方便，因此电子钱包或PayPal是一种较好的替代。

The services consumers are paying for on their phones are changing too, from purely¹⁴ digital items such as music downloads, to taxis, accommodation, or meals. As a result, digitally driven services, such as Uber, a lift-sharing company, or Airbnb, which lets people rent accommodation online, are as much about processing payments and creating trust as they are about the apps.

消费者在手机上购买的服务也在改变，从音乐下载等纯粹的数字产品发展到打车、住宿或餐饮服务。因此，拼车公司Uber或者允许人们在线租房的Airbnb等数字驱动的服务不仅仅需要处理支付问题和建立信任，而且还需要相关应用。

Physical retailers are also adopting digital payments. Companies such as Starbucks have persuaded consumers to pay by mobile apps by combining payments and a loyalty¹⁵ scheme.

实体零售商也在采用数字支付方式。星巴克(Starbucks)等公司将支付和会员项目结合起来，说服消费者使用移动应用支付。

One reason electronic wallets – and other alternatives to cash and cards – have so far failed to take off is that they have not made consumers’ lives simpler or brought value to the businesses that use them.

电子钱包以及其他代替现金和银行卡的支付方式迄今未能取得成功的一个原因是，它们没有让消费者的生活更加简单，或者为使用它们的商家带来价值。

“There is no value added in a business such as a hotel accepting additional payment [systems],”says Deborah Baxley, a consultant¹⁶ at Capgemini Financial Services. “But,” she adds, “it can remove a source of irritation¹⁷ for consumers.”

英国凯捷金融服务的顾问德博拉•巴克斯利(Deborah Baxley)表示：“酒店等接受额外支付（系统）的企业没有增加任何价值。但是，它可以消除一个让消费者不满的根源。”

Businesses are more likely to invest in systems that will give them greater control over the value such systems can add to their business.

企业更可能投资于那些将让它们对此类系统所增加的价值有更大控制权的系统。

“Big corporates are taking matters into their own hands [on payments],” says Christophe Uzureau, a payments expert at analysts¹⁸ Gartner. “There is a movement to have more control over issues such as cash management.”

咨询公司Gartner支付专家Christophe Uzureau表示：“大企业正自己动手创建（支付业务）。现在有一种加大对现金管理等事务的控制权的趋势。”

Ultimately, online payments could allow businesses to wrest¹⁹ more control of the payment value chain from banks. Along the way, they stand to gather more data about customers’ habits by combining information on purchases, locations and loyalty programmes.

最终，在线支付可能让企业能够从银行那里夺得对支付价值链的更大控制权。在此过程中，它们会结合购买、位置和会员信息来搜集更多有关客户购物习惯的数据。

Smart online wallets, which calculate the best bank, card or other payment scheme for a consumer using criteria²⁰ such as offers, loyalty points, interest charges and exchange rates, may be the next thing, suggests Matthew Friend, managing director and head of Accenture Payment Services in North America.

Accenture Payment Services董事总经理、北美地区负责人马修•弗兰德(Matthew Friend)表示，在线智能钱包可能是下一个热点。在线智能钱包从折扣、积分、利息费用和汇率等标准出发，为客户计算出最佳的银行、银行卡或其他支付方式。

Nonetheless, the online payments sector²¹ will grow, if only because accepting more ways to pay will allow businesses to sell more. “Every time a website accepts new ways to pay, it drives more transactions,” Mr Friend says.

然而，就算只是因为接受更多支付方式将会增加企业的销售，在线支付领域也会得到发展。弗兰德表示：“网站每次接受新的支付方式，就会推动更多的交易。”