If there is an energy transition away from fossil fuels under way, it has so far moved painfully slowly.

如果远离化石燃料的能源转型正在进行中的话，那么迄今转型进展极其缓慢。

The share of renewables and nuclear power in the world’s energy mix rose to a new high of 13.7 per cent last year, according to the latest BP Statistical¹ Review of World Energy. That might sound encouraging, until you consider that it was 13.1 per cent in 1995.

英国石油公司(BP)最新一版《世界能源统计年鉴》(Statistical Review of World Energy)显示，去年，可再生能源及核能在世界能源结构中的占比上升至13.7%的新高。这听起来或许令人振奋，直到你想起1995年该比例为13.1%。

The projection² from the International Energy Agency that by 2030 renewable energy could become the world’s largest source of electricity is a sign of its potential, but the slow pace of the shift away from fossil fuels is evidence of their compelling advantages in terms of cost and convenience.

国际能源署(IEA)预测，到2030年可再生能源或将成为世界上最大的电力来源，这显示出了其未来的潜力，但从化石燃料转移的缓慢步伐，也表明了化石燃料在成本和便利上令人难以抗拒的优势。

Tackling the threat of catastrophic climate change cannot rely on wind and solar power alone but requires multiple changes, including a shift within fossil fuels away from coal towards gas. China, the world’s largest energy user with 23 per cent of global use last year, will be critical in deciding whether those changes are made.

为了应对灾难性气候变化的威胁，仅依靠风力和太阳能发电是不够的，而是需要多种改变，包括在化石燃料内部从煤炭转向天然气。中国作为世界上最大的能源消耗国（去年其能源使用量占全球的23%），在这些改变能否发生上将起到重要决定作用。

There were positive signs last year in that global carbon dioxide emissions³ grew at one of the slowest rates in the past 15 years, according to BP, and China was a principal reason. Its emissions grew by just 0.9 per cent, well below the 10-year annual average of 9 per cent.

BP表示，去年出现了积极迹象——全球二氧化碳排放量的增速为过去15年最低之一，而中国正是主要原因。中国二氧化碳排放量仅增长0.9%，远低于过去10年平均9%的增速。

The slowdown in China’s economy and its shift away from construction and heavy manufacturing meant energy consumption grew by just 2.6 per cent, its slowest rate since 1998. At the same time, new nuclear plants and hydroelectric dams came on line, and hydro power generation was helped by higher rainfall. As a result, BP estimates China’s consumption of coal, the highest -emitting fuel, rose by just 0.1 per cent.

中国经济增长放缓，以及经济重心从建筑业及重工业转移，使其能源消耗量增长仅为2.6%，达到自1998年以来的最慢增速。与此同时，新的核电站及水电站投产，而更高的降雨量则推动了水力发电。因此，BP预计中国的煤炭（碳排量最高的能源）消耗量增长仅为0.1%。

A report last week from Fergus Green and Lord Nicholas Stern of the London School of Economics argued that China’s coal consumption had hit a plateau and “on the balance of possibilities” was on a declining trend. They said the country’s greenhouse gas emissions could peak in 2020-25, earlier than the government’s 2030 objective, and fall “at a rapid rate” thereafter.

伦敦政治经济学院(London School of Economics)的弗格斯•格林(Fergus Green)及尼古拉斯•斯特恩爵士(Lord Nicholas Stern)在上周公布的一份报告中认为，中国的煤炭消耗量已经达到平稳阶段，“综合各种可能考虑”正处于下降趋势。他们称，中国的温室气体排放量或将在2020-25年达到顶峰，早于政府制定的2030年的目标，并将在此后“快速”下降。

That outcome is uncertain. With gross domestic product per capita about one quarter that of the US, China still has plenty of scope for further industrialisation. Alongside heavy investment in renewable and nuclear power, it is still building new coal plants, last year adding 36 gigawatts of capacity to the grid⁴.

这种结果是不确定的。在人均国内生产总值(GDP)约为美国的1/4的情况下，中国仍有大量空间推进工业化。在大举投资可再生能源及核能的同时，中国仍然在建设新的燃煤电厂，去年新增了36千兆瓦装机容量。

To reach the reductions in coal use that Mr Green and Lord Stern suggest are possible, China will need rapid growth not just in non-fossil fuels but also in natural gas, which creates only about half the carbon dioxide of coal when burnt for power. About 4 per cent of China’s power generation capacity is gas-fired today, but the government has set a target that use of the fuel should roughly double by 2020 to 10 per cent of energy consumption, from 5.6 per cent last year.

为了达到格林和斯特恩爵士认为可能的煤炭使用削减目标，中国不仅需要迅速增加对非化石燃料的使用，还需要增加使用天然气（燃烧发电时产生的二氧化碳仅为煤炭的一半左右）。如今中国约4%的发电装机容量来自于燃气发电，但政府已经制定了目标，要求到2020年天然气的使用在能源消耗中的比例应该增加近一倍，由去年的5.6%上升至10%。

China’s moves to expand its gas supplies, both domestic and imported, have often met with suspicion in the US and the EU. Its efforts to exploit its vast shale⁵ gas reserves, supported by the US administration, have raised concerns about giving Chinese companies a boost in international competition. Import deals such as the agreements reached with Russia last year have been seen as attempts to extend geopolitical influence.

中国为扩大国内及进口天然气供应所采取的举措，时常会招致美国和欧盟(EU)的怀疑。中国开采其庞大页岩气储量的努力（得到了美国当局的支持），引起了人们对提升中国企业国际竞争力的担忧。诸如去年中俄天然气供应协议在内的进口协议，被视为中国欲扩大地缘政治影响力的努力。

If the threat of global warming is to be kept acceptably low, however, curbing⁶ China’s coal consumption is the single most important step to take.

然而，如果全球变暖的威胁要维持在可接受的低水平，控制中国的煤炭消耗量便是要采取的最重要的一步。

Other countries should be supportive of China’s attempts to increase its gas supplies. In the long run, it will be in all of our interests.

其他国家应该支持中国为增加天然气供应所付出的努力。从长远来看，这将符合所有人的利益。