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中国股市下跌敲响保证金贷款警钟
添加时间:2015-07-05 19:37:38 浏览次数: 作者:未知
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  • At a stock trading hall for retail1 investors2 near People’s Square in Shanghai, the mood is glum3.

    在上海人民广场附近一个面向散户投资者的证券营业厅,人们情绪低沉。

    Shenyin Wanguo, like other Chinese brokerages, maintains its hall for investors to hang around, make a few trades and share tips. Among the mostly elderly investors, zest4 for market speculation5 goes hand-in-hand with the socialist6 conviction that the government can and should protect them from risk.

    就像中国其他券商那样,申银万国(Shenyin Wanguo)维持这个营业厅是为了让投资者流连于股市,做几笔买卖,交流炒股点子。在这些以老年人为主的散户中,对市场投机的狂热与社会主义信念同时存在,这种信念就是:政府能够而且应当保护他们免受风险。

    “Even I, an old party member, don’t believe the regulators any more,” says Ms Xu, a 76-year-old retiree.

    “即使是身为老党员的我,也不再相信监管机构了,”76岁的退休人员徐女士表示。

    China’s main stock index lost 5 per cent yesterday, shrugging off an interest-rate cut by the central bank over the weekend. The market has now tumbled 22 per cent since hitting a seven-year high on June 12. Ms Xu blames the securities regulator for approving too many initial public offerings, siphoning demand away from existing shares.

    中国主要股指昨日下挫5%,没有被央行在上周末的降息举措打动。自6月12日触及七年高点以来,中国股市已下跌22%。徐女士指责证券监管机构批准了太多的首次公开发行(IPO),分流了市场对现有股票的需求。

    She also lost money punting on internet stocks amid pledges by top leaders to promote the technology sector7. ChiNext, the Shenzhen-based start-up index, had more than tripled in the year to June but has since plummeted8 30 per cent.

    在高层领导人承诺促进科技行业发展的背景下,她投资了网络股,但赔了钱。位于深圳的创业板(ChiNext)在截至6月的一年里上涨两倍多,但自那以来已跌去30%。

    “The country is promoting ‘internet plus’ so I bought some internet-themed stocks,” she says. “Their results looked good. But then came a few days of limit-down. Now I’m stuck,” she says, referring to the maximum 10 per cent limit on a stock’s gain or loss on a single day.

    “国家在推动‘互联网+',所以我买了一些互联网主题的股票,”她说。“他们的业绩看起来很不错。但后来连续几天跌停。现在我被套牢了,”她说。跌停指的是股价触及10%的个股单日下跌限度。

    Reflecting the surge of retail investors into the market, trading accounts holding at least some stock hit 68m by the end of May, up 27 per cent from a year earlier, according to clearing houses.

    散户投资者大举涌入市场的证据之一是,结算所数据显示,至少持有一些股票的交易账户数量在5月底达到6800万,比一年前增加27%。

    Yet analysts10 say the roots of China’s stock boom, and its unfolding bust11, lie not in old-fashioned retail trading halls. Instead, margin12 lending, which did not exist during China’s last big equity13 boom and bust, has played a central role.

    不过,分析师们表示,无论是中国股市的大涨,还是其眼下经历的震荡,根源都不在面向散户的老式营业厅。相反,在中国股市上一轮大涨大跌期间不存在的保证金贷款,这一次起到了核心作用。

    Official margin lending through securities brokerages peaked at Rmb2.3tn ($371bn) on June 19, up from just Rmb403bn a year earlier. Goldman Sachs estimates such lending equals 12 per cent of the free-float market capitalisation of margin-eligible stocks, and 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product.

    通过券商进行的正规保证金贷款在6月19日达到2.3万亿元人民币(合3710亿美元)的巅峰,而去年此时只有4030亿元人民币。高盛(Goldman Sachs)估计,此类贷款相当于符合融资交易条件的股票的自由流通股总市值的12%,国内生产总值(GDP)的3.5%。

    But even that figure fails to capture the full extent of leveraged15 stock investing. In addition to brokerages, grey-market margin lending through third parties has pumped an additional Rmb500bn to Rmb1tn in borrowed money into the market, according to estimates from Haitong Securities.

    但是,就连上述数字也未能充分反映杠杆炒股的规模。除了券商外,据海通证券(Haitong Securities)测算,通过第三方进行的灰色市场保证金贷款,也向股市输送了5000亿至1万亿元人民币。

    Brokerages limit margin leverage14 to a ratio of two to one and require clients to put up at least Rmb500,000. By contrast, Xunqianwang, a company that connects punters with borrowed money, allows leverage of up to six to one, and requires as little as Rmb2,000 of the client’s own funds. The company, whose Chinese name translates as “search for money”, boasts that new clients can gain approval in an hour.

    券商对保证金贷款规定的杠杆率上限为2比1,并要求客户至少拿出50万元人民币本金。相比之下,在炒股者与资金之间牵线搭桥的寻钱网允许最大为六比一的杠杆率,而且只要求客户自己至少拿出2000元人民币。寻钱网夸口说,新客户有望在一小时内获得批准。

    “We can still control the risk because we strictly16 examine and assess every client,” says Zhong Jingtian, the founder17 and chief executive. The company restricts which stocks a client can buy and does not give loans to a single client exceeding Rmb3m.

    “我们仍然可以控制风险,因为我们严格审查和评估每一个客户,”寻钱网创始人和首席执行官周竞天表示。该公司对客户可以买入哪些股票实行限制,而且不向单一客户提供超过300万元人民币的贷款。

    Analysts say the proliferation of margin lending creates the risk of a snowball effect as margin investors, faced with mounting losses, are forced to liquidate18 their positions unless they can post additional collateral19.

    分析师们表示,保证金贷款的泛滥带来了雪球效应风险,因为在亏损越来越大的情况下,利用保证金的投资者除非能够拿出额外担保金,否则将被迫平仓。

    David Cui, equity analyst9 at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, estimates that the Shanghai Composite would need to fall an additional 40 per cent for large-scale margin calls to kick in on official margin lending. “However, this doesn’t mean that margin call is not a serious risk right now,” he wrote in a note yesterday. “The selling pressure so far has mainly come from stock-related borrowings via various unofficial channels where the leverage is much higher.”

    美银美林(BofAML)股票策略师崔伟(David Cui)估计,上证综指(Shanghai Composite)还需要再下跌40%,才会触发正规保证金贷款的大规模追加要求。“不过,这并不意味着追加保证金通知现在不是一个严重风险,”他在昨日一份简报中写道。“迄今的抛压主要来自各种非正规渠道的股票相关借款,它们的杠杆率要高得多。”

    Some analysts still expect the market to rebound20. They argue that the fundamental factors underpinning21 the rally, especially loose monetary22 policy and ongoing23 economic reforms in China, are still intact, even as valuations now look more reasonable.

    一些分析师仍预计市场将反弹。他们认为,支撑股市涨势的一些基本面因素,尤其是中国的宽松货币政策和正在开展的经济改革,仍然完好存在,同时现在的估值看起来较为合理。

     11级    英语新闻 


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    1 retail [ˈri:teɪl] VWoxC   第7级
    n.零售;vt.零售;转述;vi.零售;adv.以零售价格
    参考例句:
    • In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets. 这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
    • These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair. 这些鞋子零卖10元一双。
    2 investors [ɪn'vestəz] dffc64354445b947454450e472276b99   第8级
    n.投资者,出资者( investor的名词复数 )
    参考例句:
    • a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
    • a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会
    3 glum [glʌm] klXyF   第10级
    adj.闷闷不乐的,阴郁的
    参考例句:
    • He was a charming mixture of glum and glee. 他是一个很有魅力的人,时而忧伤时而欢笑。
    • She laughed at his glum face. 她嘲笑他闷闷不乐的脸。
    4 zest [zest] vMizT   第9级
    n.乐趣;滋味,风味;兴趣
    参考例句:
    • He dived into his new job with great zest. 他充满热情地投入了新的工作。
    • He wrote his novel about his trip to Asia with zest. 他兴趣浓厚的写了一本关于他亚洲之行的小说。
    5 speculation [ˌspekjuˈleɪʃn] 9vGwe   第7级
    n.思索,沉思;猜测;投机
    参考例句:
    • Her mind is occupied with speculation. 她的头脑忙于思考。
    • There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign. 人们普遍推测他要辞职。
    6 socialist [ˈsəʊʃəlɪst] jwcws   第7级
    n.社会主义者;adj.社会主义的
    参考例句:
    • China is a socialist country, and a developing country as well. 中国是一个社会主义国家,也是一个发展中国家。
    • His father was an ardent socialist. 他父亲是一个热情的社会主义者。
    7 sector [ˈsektə(r)] yjczYn   第7级
    n.部门,部分;防御地段,防区;扇形
    参考例句:
    • The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
    • The enemy have attacked the British sector. 敌人已进攻英国防区。
    8 plummeted [ˈplʌmɪtid] 404bf193ceb01b9d9a620431e6efc540   第9级
    v.垂直落下,骤然跌落( plummet的过去式和过去分词 )
    参考例句:
    • Share prices plummeted to an all-time low. 股票价格暴跌到历史最低点。
    • A plane plummeted to earth. 一架飞机一头栽向地面。 来自《简明英汉词典》
    9 analyst [ˈænəlɪst] gw7zn   第9级
    n.分析家,化验员;心理分析学家
    参考例句:
    • What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst? 你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务?
    • The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards. 分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。
    10 analysts ['ænəlɪsts] 167ff30c5034ca70abe2d60a6e760448   第9级
    分析家,化验员( analyst的名词复数 )
    参考例句:
    • City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
    • I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。
    11 bust [bʌst] WszzB   第9级
    vt.打破;vi.爆裂;n.半身像;胸部
    参考例句:
    • I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
    • She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust. 她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。
    12 margin [ˈmɑ:dʒɪn] 67Mzp   第7级
    n.页边空白;差额;余地,余裕;边,边缘
    参考例句:
    • We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train. 我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
    • The village is situated at the margin of a forest. 村子位于森林的边缘。
    13 equity [ˈekwəti] ji8zp   第8级
    n.公正,公平,(无固定利息的)股票
    参考例句:
    • They shared the work of the house with equity. 他们公平地分担家务。
    • To capture his equity, Murphy must either sell or refinance. 要获得资产净值,墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。
    14 leverage [ˈli:vərɪdʒ] 03gyC   第9级
    n.力量,影响;杠杆作用,杠杆的力量
    参考例句:
    • We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock. 我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
    • He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力,他的计划失败了。
    15 leveraged [ˈli:vəridʒd] 4be9cca5c3e3ca3895aa6ea20348747d   第9级
    促使…改变( leverage的过去式和过去分词 ); [美国英语]杠杆式投机,(使)举债经营,(使)利用贷款进行投机
    参考例句:
    • Chrysler has traditionally been a highly leveraged company. 克莱斯勒一向是一家周转十分灵活的公司。
    • Leveraged recaps have become popular for a number of reasons. 杠杆资本重组的大行其道有好几个原因。
    16 strictly [ˈstrɪktli] GtNwe   第7级
    adv.严厉地,严格地;严密地
    参考例句:
    • His doctor is dieting him strictly. 他的医生严格规定他的饮食。
    • The guests were seated strictly in order of precedence. 客人严格按照地位高低就座。
    17 Founder [ˈfaʊndə(r)] wigxF   第8级
    n.创始者,缔造者
    参考例句:
    • He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school. 他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
    • According to the old tradition, Romulus was the founder of Rome. 按照古老的传说,罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。
    18 liquidate [ˈlɪkwɪdeɪt] I3OyM   第8级
    vt. 清算;偿付;消除 vi. 清算;清理债务
    参考例句:
    • A unanimous vote was taken to liquidate the company. 全体投票一致通过停业清理公司。
    • They have not hesitated in the past to liquidate their rivals. 过去他们曾毫不犹豫地铲除对手。
    19 collateral [kəˈlætərəl] wqhzH   第8级
    adj.平行的;旁系的;n.担保品
    参考例句:
    • Many people use personal assets as collateral for small business loans. 很多人把个人财产用作小额商业贷款的抵押品。
    • Most people here cannot borrow from banks because they lack collateral. 由于拿不出东西作为抵押,这里大部分人无法从银行贷款。
    20 rebound [rɪˈbaʊnd] YAtz1   第10级
    n. 回弹;篮板球 vi. 回升;弹回 vt. 使弹回
    参考例句:
    • The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake. 伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
    • Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves. 我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。
    21 underpinning [ˈʌndəˌpiniŋ] 7431aa77983d1e766a4ef27b6d3f1735   第11级
    n.基础材料;基础结构;(学说、理论等的)基础;(人的)腿v.用砖石结构等从下面支撑(墙等)( underpin的现在分词 );加固(墙等)的基础;为(论据、主张等)打下基础;加强
    参考例句:
    • Underpinning this success has been an exemplary record of innovation. 具有典范性的创新确保了这次成功。 来自辞典例句
    • But underpinning Mr Armstrong's technology changes is a human touch. 但阿姆斯特朗技术变革的支柱是人情味。 来自互联网
    22 monetary [ˈmʌnɪtri] pEkxb   第7级
    adj.货币的,钱的;通货的;金融的;财政的
    参考例句:
    • The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold. 过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
    • Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means. 荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。
    23 ongoing [ˈɒngəʊɪŋ] 6RvzT   第8级
    adj.进行中的,前进的
    参考例句:
    • The problem is ongoing. 这个问题尚未解决。
    • The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area. 报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

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