The renminbi closed at its softest level in more than four years against the dollar on Tuesday as investors² continued to fret³ about the capital outflows evident from currency reserve data published earlier in the week.

周二人民币对美元汇率收于四年多来最低点，本周早些时候公布的外汇储备数据促使投资者继续担忧资本外流。

Weakness was even more marked in the more volatile⁴ offshore⁵ market, where the spread between onshore and offshore rates reached its highest in more than three months, implying investors expect China’s currency to continue weakening.

在波动较大的离岸市场，人民币弱势更为显著，在岸市场与离岸市场的汇率差达到三个多月来的最高水平，这意味着投资者预期人民币汇率将继续走低。

Tuesday’s onshore daily “fix” by the People’s Bank of China set the renminbi at Rmb6.4078 to the dollar, 0.15 per cent weaker than Monday, and the pair later closed at Rmb6.4179. The offshore rate — not restricted like its onshore counterpart to a 2 per cent band either side of the fix rate — fell by 0.3 per cent twice and closed at Rmb6.4919 — just shy of its Rmb6.5112 peak late in August.

周二(12月8日），中国人民银行(PBoC)设定的在岸人民币每日参考汇率为1美元兑6.4078元人民币，比周一降低0.15%，该汇率收于1美元兑6.4179元人民币。不像在岸汇率那样受2%浮动区间限制的离岸人民币汇率，两次下跌0.3%，收于1美元兑6.4919元人民币，逼近今年8月下旬1美元兑6.5112元人民币的峰值。

The renminbi’s weakness was considered a sign that investors were testing just how far and how fast China was prepared to let its currency decline as it manages a slowing economy. Forecasts for a softer renminbi have grown bolder since the currency was givenreserve status by the International Monetary⁶ Fund late last month.

人民币疲软被视为一个信号，表明投资者在试探中国在应对经济放缓的同时愿意让人民币贬值走多远、走多快。继上月底国际货币基金组织(IMF)授予人民币储备货币资格后，对人民币进一步贬值的预测变得更加肯定。

“It appears that China’s central bank intends to engineer a managed depreciation⁷ in the renminbi as the economy slows, which makes sense from both policy and economic perspectives,” said Commerzbank strategist Zhou Hao, who said further weakness was “inevitable⁸”.

“随着经济放缓，中国央行看来有意安排人民币进行可控的贬值，这无论是从政策还是经济角度来说都是合理的。”德国商业银行(Commerzbank)策略师周浩表示。他认为进一步贬值是“不可避免的”。

He also highlighted investor¹ fears that the recent rise in volatility⁹ would spike¹⁰ further — another factor likely to weigh on the currency.

他还强调，投资者担心近期有所上升的波动性将会进一步飙升，这是另一个可能拖累人民币汇率的因素。

“Of course, there is little doubt that PBoC will intervene intensively when they deem that market volatility is too high,” he added.

“当然，如果他们认为市场波动过大，中国央行无疑将会高强度干预，”他补充说。

The onshore renminbi has fallen about 3 per cent against the dollar so far this year, leaving China’s exporters at a competitive disadvantage compared with many Asian rivals whose currencies have fallen further — and also against those of the eurozone, whose currency has weakened more than 10 per cent.

今年以来，在岸人民币对美元汇率下跌了3%，令中国出口商与许多货币贬值幅度更大的亚洲国家、以及货币贬值幅度超过10%的欧元区国家的对手相比处于竞争劣势。

HSBC strategists on Tuesday said they had lowered their 2016 year-end forecast for the renminbi to Rmb6.7 from Rmb6.6 previously¹¹.

汇丰(HSBC)策略师周二表示，他们已将2016年底人民币兑换美元的汇率预测从原来的1美元兑6.6元人民币下调到1美元兑6.7元人民币。

Goldman Sachs has a target of Rmb6.6 by the end of next year.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)对明年底人民币汇率的目标是1美元兑6.6元人民币。