Of the technical advances transforming the energy business, none is potentially more important than storage. Used on a sufficient scale, it could make heat and light available to those living in subsistence conditions and radically¹ alter the world’s energy mix.

在改变能源业的技术进步中，可能没有哪一项比能源存储更重要的了。在应用规模足够大的情况下，这项技术能够为那些勉强维生的人提供光和热，并从根本上改变世界能源结构。

But it is important to demolish² two myths. First, the technological³ advances are not about to transform the energy system to the point where a large proportion of consumers defect from existing distribution systems. Second, it does not require a dramatic breakthrough to become economic.

但驳倒两个神话很重要。首先，技术进步对能源体系的改变，并不会达到使大部分消费者弃用现有能源输配体系的地步。其次，我们并不需要取得爆炸式的突破就能使能源存储技术具备经济可行性。

On the first, by far the most likely next step is the integration⁴ of storage mechanisms⁵ into existing grids⁶ and other distribution systems in ways that manage peak loads and thus contribute to reducing the necessary generating capacity.

关于前者，最有可能的下一步发展是使能源存储机制融入现有输配网和其他输配系统，以管理高峰负荷，从而有助于减少必要的能源产能。

On the second, the story is one of gradualism. The core technologies are known and are advancing. Some are already commercially competitive; you are probably reading this on a computer that holds power for much longer than was possible only a decade ago. There could well be developments that would change the entire energy system but a eureka moment is not necessary.

关于后者，则要认识到技术进步的渐进性。能源存储的核心技术已经为人所知，也正在取得进展。一些技术已经拥有了商业竞争力；你或许正在用一台电脑阅读这篇文章，这台电脑的续航时间要比十年前可能达到的水平长得多。或许会出现一些改变整个能源体系的技术发展，但爆炸性突破并非必不可少。

Moody’s notes battery costs have fallen 50 per cent in the past five years. Lazard reports that industry expects a further significant fall in the next five years; and that, if projections⁷ are accurate, “some energy storage technologies may be positioned to displace a significant portion of future gas-fired generation capacity in particular as a replacement⁸ for peaking gas turbine facilities”.

据穆迪(Moody’s)报告，过去5年电池的成本下降了50%。Lazard报告，行业人士预计接下来5年电池成本还会进一步显著下降；并且，如果相关预测是准确的，“一些能源存储技术可能取代未来相当一部分燃气发电产能，尤其是取代目前急剧增加的燃气轮机设备”。

This suggests advances in storage could rapidly overturn established business models. Many of the technologies already have a strong industrial base, which is helping⁹ to reduce production costs. Many more are still at an early stage of commercialisation, building on research in universities worldwide.

这表明，能源存储技术的进步可能迅速推翻即成商业模式。许多存储技术已经拥有雄厚的工业基础，这有助于减少生产成本。还有更多存储技术在世界各地大学的研究基础上发展，还处于商业化的初期阶段。

There are several storage technologies, each with particular applications. Pumped hydro systems enable us to manage the use of flows of water. Batteries can balance power loads and help manage the challenges of energy supplies that are intermittent¹⁰. There are also uses at the production and at the consumption end of the supply chain.

有几种能源存储技术，每一种都有特定的用途。抽水蓄能系统让我们可以管理对水流的利用。电池能够平衡能源负荷，有助于处理间断式的能源供应。还有用于能源生产和能源供应链消费端的技术。

Some techniques, such as pumping water, have been used for centuries. Others, such as lithium ion, are not yet commercially viable¹¹, but the pace of improvement in costs is impressive.

人们对一些技术的使用长达数个世纪，比如抽水。其他一些技术还不具备商业可行性，但成本改善方面的进展步伐令人印象深刻，比如锂离子。

Storage can be used with any form of supply, from coal to wind, and for any purpose from transport to heating. It improves efficiency by allowing consumers to use energy when they want rather than only at the moment of production. Economically, the greatest impact and the most significant benefits will accrue¹² to the renewables sector¹³, where a greater proportion of supply is wasted and where intermittency¹⁴ forces users into substantial back-up costs.

能源存储技术可被用于从煤炭到风能的任何形式的能源供应，也可以用于从交通到供暖的任何目的。通过能源存储技术，消费者可以在需要的时候使用能源，而非只在能源生产出来的时候使用能源，从而提高能效。经济上，可再生能源领域受到的影响最大，得到的益处也最多。在该领域，能源供给的浪费比例更大，能源供给的间断性还迫使用户承受高昂的备用能源成本。

Technological advances, along with falling costs, promise to make solar the power source of choice in the 21st century. If governments want to decarbonise the economy it is hard to think of a better use for public money and subsidies¹⁵ than researching storage.

技术的进步和成本的下降有望使太阳能成为21世纪的能源选择。如果政府希望使经济脱碳，很难想到有什么比能源存储技术研究更适合投入公共资金和补贴了。

The vital point is that storage is growing cheaper at a rate likely to challenge at least part of the existing energy system within five years. The conventional alternatives under threat from this sort of competition start with gas turbines but extend to expensive plans to upgrade transmission lines and distribution systems.

关键的一点是，能源存储技术的成本正在快速降低，或许能在5年内挑战至少部分现有技术的地位。对于这类竞争，受到威胁的传统替代方案不仅包括燃气轮机，还包括传输线和输配体系升级这样昂贵的方案。

When serious and objective financial institutions start saying such things, investors¹⁶ and companies involved in the old energy economy would be foolish not to take notice of the mounting evidence that storage technology is the next big shift in the energy business.

严肃和客观的金融机构已经开始谈论这类事情，越来越多的证据表明能源存储技术将是能源行业的下一个重大转变，参与旧能源经济的投资者和企业如果不注意这一点将是愚蠢的。