Zhou Tianyong, an economist¹ from the Party School of the Central Committee of Communist Party of China, told the Global Times on last Friday that China's economic growth rate in 2015 was 6.9 percent, official figures indicated, the first time that the official rate has been below 7 percent in six years. According to his research, demographics play a major role.

中央党校经济学家周天勇上周五接受《环球时报》时表示，官方数据显示，中国2015年的经济增长速度是6.9%，六年来首次降到7%以下。根据他的研究，人口因素在其中起了很大的作用。

Zhou said that a shrinking labor force led to the soaring of labor costs, which directly affects the country's exports. Meanwhile, the aging population raises challenges for the country's social security system.

周天勇表示，由于劳动力供给减少，导致了劳动力成本的飙升，进而降低了中国出口产业的竞争力。而与此同时，老龄化人口的增多也给中国社会保障体系带来了不小的压力。

He added that a fall in the working-age population would affect the country's consumption, as well as leading to the decline of rigid demands such as houses and cars, and would further contribute to the surplus of cement, steel, and coal.

他还强调称，劳动力人口下降将会影响中国的消费，减少对诸如房产和汽车等产品的刚性需求，甚至还会导致水泥、钢铁、煤炭等行业产能过剩。

"If the country lacks industrial demand, exports, consumption, investment will definitely shrink, along with economic growth," said Zhou.

周天勇说：“如果中国缺少对工业产品、出口产品和消费的需求的话，那么投资就会萎缩，同时经济增长的速度也会放缓。”

Zhou's research found a strong correlation between economic and population growth between 1974 and 1994, leading him to predict more future pressures.

周天勇的研究指出，从1974年到1994年这二十年，中国的经济和人口增长显著相关。这也使得他预测中国未来的经济将面临更多的压力。

The number of people aged between 16 and 59 will decrease to 896 million in 2020 and 824 million in 2030, while the number of those aged 60 and over will grow to 253 million in 2020 and 365 million in 2030, according to new data provided by the Population and Development Studies Center at the Renmin University of China to the Global Times.

根据中国人民大学人口和发展研究中心向《环球时报》提供的数据显示，预计到2020年，16到59岁的劳动人口将减少到8.96亿人，而到2030年，将进一步减少到8.24亿。与此同时，60岁以上的老年人口在2020年时将增加到2.53亿，而到2030年将进一步增加到3.65亿。

Zhou's opinion was echoed by Yi Fuxian, a long-term critic of China's family planning policy and a scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in the US, who warned that China has entered a "low fertility trap."

周天勇的观点和美国威士康星大学麦迪逊分校的学者易富贤不谋而合。此前他一直对中国的计划生育政策持批评态度，并警告称，中国已经步入了一个“低生育率陷阱”。

"China's current demographic structure is severely distorted, as the country now faces problems such as low fertility, an aging society and gender² imbalance. This may hinder economic development as well as social stability in the long run," said Mu Guangzong, a professor at Peking University's Institute of Population Research.

北京大学人口研究所教授穆光宗说：“中国目前的人口结构严重扭曲，面临着诸如低生育率、人口老龄化和性别失衡等问题。这可能会阻碍经济发展和社会长治久安。”