As the price of crude oil reaches its highest level of the year, traders are split over whether the rally of almost 80 per cent since prices bottomed in January can keep going.

在油价处于年内最高点之际，交易员们对于这轮涨势能否持续看法不一。原油价格自1月触底后，已反弹近80%。

With the price of Brent, the international benchmark, and US West Texas Intermediate, rising strongly, five factors could dictate¹ the next move.

国际基准布伦特原油(Brent)以及美国西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)的价格正在强劲上涨，下一步走势如何，可能要看五个因素：

Nigeria and other troubled Opec producers

尼日利亚，还有其他陷入困境的欧佩克(OPEC)产油国

The latest leg-up in prices comes as output in Nigeria, which used to be Africa’s largest producer, has fallen to the lowest level in more than 20 years.

支撑油价上涨的最新一个利好是，昔日非洲最大的产油国尼日利亚的石油产量降至逾20年来的最低水平。

Militant² attacks on oil facilities in the Niger delta³ have slashed⁴ the Opec member’s output to below 1.4m barrels a day — a drop of more than 40 per cent from its recent peak — and reignited fears of prolonged unrest.

武装分子不断袭击尼日尔三角洲的石油设施，致使尼日利亚石油日产量降至140万桶以下——较近年产量峰值下滑40%以上——同时再次引发了人们对尼日利亚会长期陷入动乱的担忧。

In Libya output remains⁵ depressed⁶, while in Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro has declared a 60-day state of emergency.

利比亚的石油产量仍然低迷，与此同时，委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯•马杜罗(Nicolás Maduro)宣布该国进入为期60天的紧急状态。

Supply disruptions

供应中断

It is not only weak Opec countries that are struggling to maintain output. Wildfires in Alberta have knocked out about 1m barrels a day or more than a fifth of Canada’s production.

并非只有疲弱的欧佩克国家正在艰难地维持产量。阿尔伯塔省(Alberta)的森林大火使加拿大石油日产量减少约100万桶，相当于全国产量的五分之一以上。

Supplies are also being hit by the lower price. Output in the US, which drove the creation of the glut⁷ in the years before the price crash, has fallen more than 500,000 b/d from a peak of 9.7m b/d 13 months ago.

供应也受到了低油价的冲击。在油价暴跌之前，美国石油市场处于供应过剩的状态，而目前美国石油日产量较13个月前的峰值970万桶减少了逾50万桶。

In China, still a big source of demand growth, output is set to slip more than 3 per cent, or 140,000 b/d, this year, according to Opec’s monthly report.

根据欧佩克的月度报告，中国仍然是全球石油需求增长的一大来源，预计今年其日均产量将下滑逾3%，或14万桶。

Disruptions, which analysts⁸ put at more than 3m b/d, have helped put the market into, or close to, a deficit⁹ for the first time in more than two years.

供应中断——分析师估计超过300万桶/日——有助于推动石油市场在两年多的时间里首次进入（或接近于）供小于求的状态。

Saudi Arabia

沙特阿拉伯

Is the Opec kingpin going to raise output? That is perhaps the biggest question dogging oil markets in the medium term. With the replacement¹⁰ of veteran oil minister Ali al-Naimi this month, cementing deputy crown prince Mohammed bin¹¹ Salman’s control over the sector¹², traders are nervously¹³ watching for any sign of higher output .

这个欧佩克核心国会增产吗？这或许是中期内困扰石油市场的最大问题。沙特经验丰富的石油部长阿里•纳伊米(Ali Al-Naimi)本月离任，副王储穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)进一步巩固了对石油部门的控制，在这种情况下交易员正紧张关注着沙特任何可能要增产的迹象。

Saudi Arabia, the only country with significant spare capacity, has made clear its belief that the lowest-cost producers should pump the most.

作为唯一拥有大量备用产能的国家，沙特已经明确表态：成本最低的产油国应该输出最多的石油。

But after raising output from 9.6m b/d in late 2014 to a record 10.6m b/d last June, its output has been steady. Since August 2015 production has averaged 10.2m b/d with little fluctuation¹⁴.

但是，在将日产量从2014年末的960万桶增加至去年6月的历史最高水平1060万桶后，其产量便保持稳定。自2015年8月以来，沙特石油产量平均为每日1020万桶，几乎没有波动。

Khalid al-Falih, the new oil minister, has promised “stability” in policymaking, but also emphasised Saudi Arabia’s ability to use its “maximum sustainable capacity” to meet demand.

沙特新任石油部长哈立德•法利赫(Khalid al-Falih)承诺在政策上保持“稳定”，但是也强调了沙特利用其“最大可持续产能”来满足需求的能力。

US shale¹⁵

美国页岩油

The average annual crude oil output from the US is forecast to fall from a peak of 9.4m b/d last year to 8.2m b/d in 2017, according to the Energy Information Administration.

根据美国能源信息署(EIA)的预测，美国原油产量预计将从去年每日940万桶的峰值，下滑至2017年的日均820万桶。

Amid higher prices the agency has trimmed the expected drop by 100,000 b/d since prices were below $40 a barrel. Nearer $50 the outlook is less clear.

比起油价处于每桶40美元以下的时候，该机构已将美国日产量减少的预期规模下调了10万桶。油价越接近50美元/桶，前景越不明朗。

Some oil companies have said they could restart drilling above $50 a barrel. But the impact of any price rise may come quicker through the futures¹⁶ market. Banks will ask companies to hedge as soon as the price is high enough to keep their operations going. That will probably put the brakes on any price rises as companies sell forward their production.

一些石油企业称，当油价上涨至每桶50美元以上，它们可能会恢复钻井作业。但是油价上涨的影响可能会通过期货市场更快地显现。一旦油价上涨至足以维持作业的水平，银行将要求企业进行对冲。由于石油企业提前出售产量，这可能将对油价上涨构成阻碍。

Hedge funds

对冲基金

When oil prices hit a floor below $30 in January, hedge funds started buying. In the first 19 weeks of the year money managers were net buyers of Brent crude, building a near-record position equivalent to 420m barrels.

今年1月油价触及30美元以下的谷底时，对冲基金开始买入。在今年的前19周内，资产管理公司一直是布伦特原油的净买家，建立了接近纪录高点的仓位，相当于4.2亿桶。

The move was largely replicated¹⁷ in WTI, where net longs rose to almost 250m barrels.

WTI原油市场的情况也基本一样，净多头增至将近2.5亿桶。