We seem to be making a bit of a mess of running the economy on planet earth. Can we do any better in space? The final frontier was once the exclusive playground of the superpowers’ military-industrial complexes, as the cold war played out above our heads. But space has rapidly been globalised and democratised, opening up to other countries and private sector¹ companies.

我们似乎把地球经济管理搞得有点糟。我们能否在太空领域表现得更出色？这个终极前沿曾经是超级大国军工企业专有的领地，冷战在我们头顶上方展开。但近年太空已迅速全球化和民主化，向其他国家和私营企业开放。

Some 40 governments spent a total of $64bn on space activities in 2013, led by the US, China, Russia and India, according to the latest figures from the OECD. A new generation of space entrepreneurs, including Elon Musk² and Jeff Bezos, has also emerged, promising³ to transform the economics of space travel. More than 50 satellite telecommunications operators supply an increasingly fast-changing market.

根据经合组织(OECD)的最新数据，2013年，大约40个国家在太空活动方面的支出总计640亿美元，排在前面的是美国、中国、俄罗斯和印度。新一代太空企业家也已崛起，包括埃隆•马斯克(Elon Musk)和杰夫•贝索斯(Jeff Bezos)，他们承诺改变太空旅行的经济性。50多家卫星电信运营商供应着这个变化越来越快的市场。

Rupert Pearce, chief executive of Inmarsat, one of the biggest of those operators, says the satellite industry is being transformed. “We have seen an incredible step change in the pace of innovation,” he says. “We are living in a world of pervasive⁴ connectivity.”

其中最大运营商之一国际海事卫星组织(Inmarsat)首席执行官鲁珀特•皮尔斯(Rupert Pearce)表示，卫星行业正在经历变革。“我们看到创新速度正发生难以置信的巨变，”他表示，“我们生活在一个普遍连接的世界里。”

Thanks to the data revolution the demand for satellite communications is expanding fast. The number of connected devices is forecast to rise from 5bn to 20bn over the next five years as the “internet of things” becomes a reality. Driverless cars could create a surge in demand for geolocation services. The supply side of the industry is evolving just as fast as satellites become smaller, cheaper and more sophisticated.

在数据革命的推动下，对卫星通信的需求快速上升。未来5年，随着“物联网”成为现实，预计联网设备数量将从50亿部升至200亿部。自动驾驶汽车可能会带来地理定位服务需求飙升。随着卫星变得更小、更廉价且更精密，该行业的供应面也在快速演变。

One company taking advantage of the opportunities is Planet, a US start-up that is putting swarms⁵ of small satellites into space with cameras to provide near-constant images of earth, helping⁶ environmentalists monitor de-forestation or fund managers track crop yields. “We are getting to the point in the global sensing revolution where we can access real-time image data,” says Robbie Schingler, Planet’s co-founder.

一家利用这种机遇的公司是美国初创企业Planet，该公司正将大量小型卫星送上太空，这些卫星的摄像头可提供近乎连续不断的地球图片，帮助环保主义者监测毁林情况，或者帮助基金经理跟踪农作物产量。Planet联合创始人罗比•申格勒(Robbie Schingler)表示：“全球传感革命已达到我们可以获取实时图像数据的程度。”

These “downstream” activities, largely run by the private sector, are flourishing pretty much by themselves. But “up-stream” is more complex, and still mostly the preserve of national and international institutions. Who should regulate and manage this extraterrestrial resource? How will we finance infrastructure⁷ such as the International Space Station, which cost about $100bn to develop? Who has the right to profit from — or tax — asteroid⁸ mining?

这些“下游”活动（多数由私营行业管理）的蓬勃发展基本上是自由发展的。但“上游”活动更为复杂，多数仍是国家和国际机构的专有领地。谁应监管和管理这些地球以外的资源？我们将如何为国际空间站（开发成本为1000亿美元左右）等基础设施融资？谁有权从小行星采矿获利，或对其征税？

To stimulate⁹ fresh thinking, Nasa challenged economists¹⁰, including the Nobel Prize-winning Eric Maskin and Mariana Mazzucato, to examine the economic development of low earth orbit, or “commercial space”. Their suggestions were published this month.

为了刺激新的想法，美国国家航空航天局(NASA)向经济学家发问，以考察近地轨道（即所谓“商业太空”）的经济发展问题。这些经济学家包括诺贝尔奖得主埃里克•马斯金(Eric Maskin)和马里亚纳•马祖卡托(Mariana Mazzucato)。他们的看法于本月发表。

The critical question is how the public sector best interacts with the private sector. In 2011, Nasa set up the Center for the Advancement¹¹ of Science in Space to encourage public institutions and commercial enterprises to use the ISS as a platform for innovation. The economists have several good ideas for this. Comprehensive databases could be created to record space research. Smarter insurance could help entice¹² thinly capitalised start-up companies. Biotech firms could be incentivised to exploit a microgravity environment.

关键问题是公共部门如何与私营部门实现最佳互动。2011年，NASA设立了太空科学发展中心(Center for the Advancement of Science in Space)，鼓励公立机构和商业企业把国际空间站作为创新平台。经济学家们对此提出了几个不错的想法：创建全面的数据库记录太空研究；更智慧的保险可能有助于吸引资金薄弱的初创企业；激励生物科技公司利用微重力环境。

But based on most of the contributions to Nasa, it looks as if the space economy will end up pretty much like the one on earth, where the cash-strapped public sector remains¹³ in thrall¹⁴ to the private sector. The worry is that the infrastructure costs will be socialised while the profits are privatised.

然而，从提供给NASA的多数建议看，太空经济好像最终会变得与地球经济大致相同，资金紧张的公共部门受制于私营部门。人们的担心是，基础设施成本将社会化，而利润将私有化。

That would be a shame. Given its extraordinary history of accomplishment¹⁵, Nasa is one public sector institution that should be allowed to dream big and given funding for its research efforts. It would be in keeping with the spirit of space exploration to experiment with far bolder economic designs.

那将是令人遗憾的。鉴于NASA的非凡成就历史，这个公共部门机构应该被允许大胆梦想并获得研究经费。毕竟，尝试大胆得多的经济设计将是符合太空探索的精神的。