By Apple’s own high standards, the hype surrounding Wednesday’s iPhone launch was looking more subdued¹ than usual.

按照苹果(Apple)自身的高标准，围绕周三iPhone发布会的舆论热度似乎比以往要低。

The company had just been hit by a Euro13bn tax bill by the European Commission.

这家公司刚遭受欧盟委员会(European Commission) 130亿欧元税务罚单打击。

On top of that setback², for the first time since the device made its debut³ in 2007, sales of the iPhone are in decline.

除了这一挫折，iPhone销量自2007年问世以来首次滑坡。

Supply-chain leaks point to a less radical⁴ redesign of the current model than Apple customers have come to expect every two years.

供应链流出的消息显示iPhone新机型在设计上没有太多重大改变，不及苹果客户每隔两年的期待。

Then on Friday Samsung handed its arch-rival an unexpected gift: one of the most costly⁵ product recalls the tech industry has ever seen.

而上周五，韩国电子制造商三星(Samsung)给自己的主要竞争对手送上一份意外大礼——高科技产业有史以来最昂贵的产品召回之一。

Samsung is replacing all 2.5m units that it has shipped of its Galaxy⁶ Note 7 smartphone just weeks after its release, due to a spate⁷ of exploding batteries.

由于接连发生电池爆炸事件，三星将前几周前刚发货的250万部Galaxy Note 7智能手机悉数召回。

Just when the Korean electronics manufacturer was regaining⁸ momentum⁹ in the sluggish¹⁰ smartphone market, the sweeping¹¹ recall resets¹² Samsung’s attempt to head off Apple’s annual launch.

三星刚刚在低迷的智能手机市场重获动力，此番大规模召回让它抢在苹果年度发布会前头发布新品的努力回到原点。

The timing¹³ is as bad for Samsung as it is positive for Apple, said Geoff Blaber, analyst¹⁴ at CCS Insight.

CCS Insight的分析师杰夫•布拉波(Geoff Blaber)表示：这一时机对三星起到的负面作用，与对苹果的正面作用相当。

If consumers are facing a lengthy¹⁵ wait, it undoubtedly¹⁶ opens the door for its closest rival.

如果消费者要面临漫长的等待，无疑会为最接近的竞争者带来机会。

Samsung has said it will take just two weeks to manufacture replacement¹⁷ phones for customers, which could leave just enough time for Apple to bring its new iPhones to market first.

三星表示只用两周就会为客户制造出替换手机，这使得苹果可以恰好先一步向市场推出新iPhone。

In the meantime, some mobile operators, including T-Mobile in the US, have said they will offer full refunds¹⁸ to Note buyers, leaving many with spare cash to spend on an iPhone if they feel they can no longer trust Samsung.

此外，包括美国T-Mobile在内的部分移动运营商表示将向购买了三星Note 7的消费者提供全额退款，这让许多消费者有闲钱购买iPhone——如果他们觉得无法再信任三星的话。

The pressure is definitely on Samsung.

布拉波表示：三星无疑承受着压力。

It’s a huge amount of inventory¹⁹ that it needs to rebuild, Mr Blaber said.

它需要重建庞大的库存量。

Until this incident, Samsung had been winning plaudits for its bold moves with the Galaxy S7 and latest Note 7 handsets.

在此事件之前，三星以围绕Galaxy S7和最新发布的Note 7手机的大胆举措赢得喝彩。

After its smartphones had struggled against soaring sales of the iPhone 6 in 2014 and 2015, Samsung has regained²⁰ market share in 2016 thanks to its S7 Edge’s curved screen and strong battery performance, two areas where Apple is seen as lagging behind its rival.

2014年到2015年iPhone 6销量飙升，三星智能手机陷入困境。随后在2016年，三星凭借S7 Edge的曲面屏和强大的电池表现——外界认为苹果在这两个领域落后其竞争对手——重夺市场份额。

Following its mid-August debut, Samsung had sold 1m Notes before the recall.

自8月中旬上市到此次召回前，三星Note 7已卖出1百万部。

There’s no doubt in my mind that the timing of the Note launch was intended to pre-empt Apple’s announcement, said Jan Dawson, tech analyst at Jackdaw Research.

Jackdaw Research科技业分析师简•道森(Jan Dawson)表示：我认为Note的发布时机毫无疑问是为了抢在苹果新品发布前头。

Arguably, it worked well for Samsung at first — the Note 7 has been one of Samsung’s best-reviewed phones ever and it seems to have got off to a great start sales-wise as well.

可以说，这一策略一开始对三星效果很好，Note 7是三星有史以来评价最高的手机之一，而且销量情况似乎也开了个好头。

Mr Dawson praised Samsung for its swift reaction to the exploding battery problem.

道森称赞了三星对电池爆炸问题作出的迅速反应。

Nonetheless, at the exact moment when the iPhone 7 arrives, it will be impossible to buy Samsung’s latest product.

但是恰恰在iPhone 7上市的那个时候，消费者将不可能买到三星的最新产品。

That’s a significant black eye for Samsung, which will not only have to cover the cost of the recall but also lose several critical weeks of sales as well, Mr Dawson said.

道森说：这对三星来说是一个重大耻辱，它不仅要承担召回成本，还失去了关键当口的数周销量。

That could mean losing hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of sales and customers to its arch-rival.

这可能意味着数十万、甚至可能数百万的销量和消费者流失到其主要竞争对手那里。

Even without product malfunctions²¹, eking²² out growth in the smartphone market is tough enough at the moment.

即使不出现产品故障，要在当前智能手机市场维持增长已经十分艰难。

Analysts²³ at IDC last week projected just a 1.6 per cent rise in global unit sales this year, down from 2015’s 10.4 per cent increase.

IDC分析师上周预计，今年全球智能手机销量将仅增长1.6%，2015年该数字为10.4%。

Despite the iPhone 7’s anticipated new dual-lens camera and wireless²⁴ headphones, Wall Street analysts had forecast that is the product’s current quarterly sales declines were unlikely to be reversed until next year.

尽管iPhone 7新的双镜头和无线耳机受到期待，但华尔街分析师预测在明年之前，iPhone当前的季度销售下降趋势不大可能逆转。

The dynamics²⁵ in Apple’s largest user bases, being China and the US, have fundamentally changed, said Ben Bajarin, tech analyst at Creative Strategies.

Creative Strategies分析师本•巴加林(Ben Bajarin)表示：苹果最大的用户群在中国和美国，这些用户的动态已经有了根本变化。

Apple is not really losing customers; people are just hanging on to their phones for longer.

苹果并没有真的流失客户，人们不过是降低了更换手机的频率。

Wall Street consensus²⁶ forecasts are for iPhone unit sales to fall at least 8 per cent in the current quarter ending in September, which is likely to include at least a week of new product availability, to around about 44m units.

华尔街共识性的预测是，在截至9月底的当前季度（包括苹果新品上市后的至少一周），iPhone销量至少会降低8%，降至大约4400万部。

Sales in the all-important December quarter are expected to be at best flat, at about 74m compared with 74.8m a year earlier, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

FactSet的调查显示，在包含至关重要的12月的那个季度，销量充其量有望与去年同期持平，达到大约7400万部，去年同期的这个数字是7480万部。

Fuelling the near-term iPhone pessimism²⁷ is the sense that the really big upgrades for the iPhone are coming in 2017, when the product celebrates its tenth anniversary — including a Note 7-style curved screen.

就近期而言，令人们对iPhone悲观的是这一判断：在2017年，iPhone庆祝问世十周年时，iPhone将迎来真正重大的升级，其中包括采用三星Galaxy Note 7那种曲面屏。

This year, we are not hearing any killer applications, said Abhey Lamba of Mizuho Securities.

今年，我们没听说有任何令人难以抗拒的新特性。

It’s hard to have a good gauge²⁸ of demand right now.

瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)的阿巴伊•兰巴(Abhey Lamba)说，目前很难对需求做出准确的判断。

However, Samsung’s mis-step could make the difference between growth and decline for the iPhone in the coming months.

然而，未来几个月里，三星的失误可能对iPhone是会增长还是会萎缩产生影响。

Mr Blaber said the recall could move the needle for Apple very slightly, albeit²⁹ at most a couple of million units.

布拉波表示，三星召回事件可能会让苹果的销量稍微增加一点点，尽管充其量会增加200万部。

Apple’s iPhone Plus is the natural alternative to the Note 7 in that price tier, Mr Blaber said.

苹果的iPhone Plus是同一价位上Galaxy Note 7的天然替代品。

It is beholden on Apple that they can really get as much stock [on to the market] as fast as they can.

布拉波说，苹果必须确保自己能真正尽快（向市场）供应尽可能多的货。

Assuming they can do that, they stand to do very well out of Samsung’s misfortune.

假设苹果能做到这一点，他们肯定将从三星的不幸遭遇中获益极多。