The ultimate impact of Donald Trump’s announced intention to withdraw the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership¹ trade deal is yet to be seen.

唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)宣布有意让美国退出贸易协议《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)的最终影响尚不得而知。

But it is clear that it will give China an opening to assume economic leadership in Asia and may be treated by leaders across the region as a sign of America’s retreat from the responsibilities of world leadership.

但是此举明显将给中国一个争夺亚洲经济领导权的突破口，还可能被该地区各国领导人视为美国放弃世界领袖责任的迹象。

The global progress of American economic and political values has been the dominant² trend in human events since the end of the second world war.

自从二战结束以来，美国向全球输出经济和政治价值观的进展一直是人类事件的主导性趋势。

The US and its allies prospered³ greatly from it and are immeasurably more secure than in the prewar world,

美国及其盟友借助这种趋势蓬勃发展，安全程度远远高于战前世界。

when we tried to isolate⁴ ourselves with, among other follies⁵, protectionist trade policies.

二战前，除其他种种愚蠢行为外，各国还试图用贸易保护主义政策自我孤立起来。

To be sure, the changes wrought⁶ by liberalised international trade have not all been positive.

没错，国际贸易自由化带来的变化并不都是积极的。

Together with technology-driven productivity gains, it has contributed to job losses in industries and communities where manufacturing was once the main support of a thriving middle class.

加上技术进步推动的生产率提升，贸易自由化在那些制造业曾经是欣欣向荣的中产阶级的主要支撑的产业和社区加剧了就业岗位消失。

The US is still a leading manufacturer but fewer Americans are employed in those industries.

美国仍然是领先的制造业大国，但是在这些行业就业的美国人日益减少。

That trend will continue whether or not we sign another trade agreement because productivity gains will continue.

无论我们是否签订又一份贸易协定，这种趋势都将持续下去，因为生产率仍然在不断提高。

Most lost manufacturing jobs were made obsolete⁷ by technology innovations.

制造业岗位的消失大部分源于技术创新。

But turning aside opportunities to sell more goods and services overseas will add to job losses, not stem them.

但是，放弃向海外出售更多商品和服务的机会，将进一步加重（而非遏止）就业岗位消失。

One in 12 American jobs is dependent on international trade.

美国每12个就业岗位中就有1个依赖于国际贸易。

To argue against the global economy is like stating opposition⁸ to the weather — it continues whether you like it or not.

反对全球化经济，就像跟天气唱反调——无论你喜不喜欢，它都我行我素。

More than 95 per cent of the world’s consumers live outside the US.

世界上95%以上的消费者生活在美国以外。

The global economy will become more accessible and competitive, whether we try to remove trade barriers or impose them.

无论我们移除还是设置贸易壁垒，全球经济都会变得越来越开放并具有竞争性。

That is why withdrawing from TPP will hurt our ability to compete.

这就是退出TPP将有损美国竞争力的原因。

Barriers to trade in America are lower than in the other TPP countries and regulatory standards are higher.

美国的贸易壁垒低于TPP其他成员国，而监管标准高于其他国家。

TPP would have removed more than 18,000 tariffs⁹ that had made our exports more expensive and less competitive in 11 Pacific Rim¹⁰ markets.

TPP将取消超过1.8万项关税，这些关税使得我们向环太平洋地区11个市场出口的成本更高、降低了我们的竞争力。

More importantly, the agreement was designed as a model for future trade agreements by focusing on non-tariff barriers to trade, pursuing regulatory reform in areas such as intellectual property, labour and environment laws, and limiting government support for state-owned companies.

更重要的是，该协定从设计上聚焦于非关税贸易壁垒；推动在知识产权、劳动力和环境法律等领域进行监管改革；以及限制政府对国有企业的支持，借此成为未来贸易协定的榜样。

Beyond its economic benefits, TPP was to serve as an important part of the foundation of American leadership in the Asia-Pacific region.

除经济利益外，TPP还是美国在亚太地区确立领导地位的重要举措。

It would strengthen US alliances there and build new relationships based on mutual¹¹ economic interests and increasingly shared geopolitical ones.

它将强化美国在该地区的同盟关系，以相互经济利益和日益共享的地缘政治利益为基础打造新关系。

Its collapse¹² will benefit China.

该协定夭折将有利于中国。

Beijing is pushing its own trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, with many countries that would have been in TPP.

北京方面正在推动自己的贸易协定《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)，其中很多国家原本会加入TPP。

It is a less advantageous¹³ agreement than TPP for all the countries involved save China but it offers Beijing an easier way of sealing its regional ascendancy¹⁴ than its heavy-handed claims on disputed islands in the South China Sea.

除了中国本身以外，RCEP对其他成员国的好处不如TPP，但是，相比中国在南中国海争议岛屿上的强硬主张，RCEP给中国提供了一个实现区域优势的更容易方法。

Politics abhors¹⁵ a vacuum and Asian countries will gravitate towards China if US influence is perceived as declining.

政治厌恶真空，如果亚洲各国认为美国影响力正在减弱，它们会向中国倾斜。

Rumours¹⁶ of the next administration’s intention to reduce the US military presence in Asia are shaping that perception, too, to China’s advantage.

有关特朗普政府有意缩减美国在亚洲军事存在的传言，也在促使各国形成这种看法，让中国得利。

It is a fool’s errand to try to recreate a mythical¹⁷ time when Fortress¹⁸ America was impregnable, unaffected by the world’s troubles.

尝试重建孤立主义的美国堡垒、不受外部世界种种麻烦影响的传奇时代，是徒劳无益的蠢事。

Instead, we should have faith in American leadership and the power of our values, including the advocacy of free trade, which have made the world and us safer, freer and richer.

相反，我们应该相信美国领导力和美国价值观（包括主张自由贸易，使整个世界和我国都更加安全、自由和富有）的力量。