China’s foreign exchange reserves rose in February, surprising analysts¹ by breaking an eight-month string of declines and offering the latest evidence that a stable renminbi and tighter capital controls are succeeding in staunching capital outflows.

中国外汇储备2月出现上升，打破了持续八个月的跌势，出乎分析师们意料，并提供最新证据表明，人民币汇率稳定和更严格的资本管制正在成功地遏止资本外流。

China’s currency weakened by a record 6.5 per cent against the dollar in 2016 amid unprecedented² capital outflows. In response, the central bank sold dollars from its reserves to relieve pressure on the currency. Foreign exchange reserves fell below $3tn for the first time in five years in January.

2016年期间，人民币相对于美元创纪录地走低6.5%，与此同时中国出现前所未有的资本外流。作为回应，中国央行从其储备中卖出美元，以减轻人民币汇率下行压力。1月中国外汇储备5年来首次下降至3万亿美元以下。

But they rose by $6.9bn to reach $3.01tn at the end of February, the central bank said yesterday. Analysts had expected a decline of $25bn, according to a Reuters poll.

但中国央行昨日表示，2月外汇储备上升69亿美元，月底增至3.01万亿美元。根据路透社(Reuters)的一项调查，分析师们此前预计中国外汇储备会进一步下降250亿美元。

Adjusting for valuation effects from exchange-rate fluctuations³, reserve inflows were probably even higher at about $25bn, according to an FT estimate. The dollar strengthened against a range of global currencies in February, reducing the dollar-denominated value of Chinese reserves held in euro, yen⁴ and other non-dollar currencies.

根据英国《金融时报》的一项估算，计入汇率波动所产生的估值效应后，中国外汇储备的流入可能更高，约为250亿美元。2月份美元兑一系列全球货币走强，降低了中国所持的欧元、日元和其他非美元货币储备资产的美元价值。

After last year’s weakening the renminbi has held firm in 2017, rising 0.7 per cent so far. That has reduced investor⁵ appetite to move money offshore⁶. Strong growth figures have bolstered⁷ confidence, while higher money market interest rates since late 2016 have discouraged outflows by increasing the yields available on renminbi assets.

在去年走弱之后，人民币在2017年保持坚挺，迄今上涨0.7%。这已经降低了投资者把资金转往境外的胃口。强劲的经济增长数字增强了信心，同时自2016年末货币市场利率上升也通过提高人民币资产的收益率，抑制了资本外流。

But analysts warn that signals from the Federal Reserve that another US rate rise is coming this month will increase the lure⁸ of US dollar assets relative to China. “I don’t think this is necessarily a turning point. You can’t say that because February data looks good, it’s going to stay good,” said Zhang Yu, head of international research at Minsheng Securities in Beijing. “This data mainly reflects that the renminbi has performed well at the start of the year. But looking ahead, outflow pressure will still be significant.”

但分析师们警告，美联储(Federal Reserve)发出的有关美国将在本月再度加息的信号，将提升美元资产相对于中国的诱惑力。“我不认为这必然是一个转折点。你不能说，因为2月的数据看起来不错，形势就会保持良好，”北京民生证券研究院海外研究主管张瑜表示。“这一数据主要反映了人民币在年初表现良好。但展望未来，外流压力仍会很大。”

Beyond currency and interest-rate factors, regulators have imposed measures to limit outflows. The limits include tighter approvals for foreign acquisitions by Chinese companies, increased disclosure requirements on forex purchases by individuals and limits on banks’ cross-border renminbi remittances⁹. Chinese football clubs also face new limits on signing expensive foreign stars.

除了汇率和利率因素外，监管机构也已采取措施限制资金外流，包括收紧对中国企业境外收购的审批，增加对个人购汇的披露要求，以及对银行跨境人民币汇款的限制。计划聘请天价外籍球星的中国足球俱乐部也面临新的限制。

Illustrating¹⁰ the effect of new capital controls, outbound foreign direct investment from China tumbled by 36 per cent in January, including an 84 per cent decline in outbound real estate¹¹ acquisition, according to the commerce ministry¹². Outbound acquisitions surged to a record $144bn in 2016, with real estate among the most popular targets.

根据中国商务部的统计，1月中国对外直接投资(FDI)下滑36%，其中境外房地产收购暴跌84%，显示出新资本管制措施的影响。境外收购在2016年飙升至创纪录的1440亿美元，房地产跻身于最受欢迎的目标之列。

But regulators have sought to reassure¹³ investors¹⁴ the clampdown is primarily aimed at rooting out fraud and discouraging “irrational¹⁵” foreign investments such as those outside an acquirer’s core business. They have said legitimate¹⁶ investments will not be blocked.

但监管机构已寻求让投资者放心，限制措施的主要目的是铲除欺诈，阻止“非理性”境外投资，例如在收购方核心业务以外的那些投资。他们表示，正当的投资不会被阻止。

“The regulator’s focus on accurate and complete disclosures is having an impact. Outbound investment has fallen back to a reasonable range,” said Yan Ling, economist¹⁷ at China Merchants Securities in Beijing.

“监管机构对准确、全面披露的注重正在产生影响。境外投资已回落到合理范围，”北京招商证券经济学家闫玲表示。

“Going forward, the key factor is the external environment. 2017 will be better than 2016, but it’s not clear if things can continue like this.”

“展望未来，关键因素是外部环境。2017年会比2016年好，但不清楚目前形势能不能保持下去。”