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Last updated: May 28, 2018

最后更新：2018年5月28日

Who is going to win? That’s the question a reporter covering politics is bound to hear at dinner parties and gatherings¹ of friends and family in an election year.

谁会赢？在选举年，这是政治新闻记者肯定会在晚宴和亲友聚会上听到的问题。

That has certainly been the case this year in California, which — after years of being relegated² to the sidelines during national campaigns — has found itself at the heart of the Democratic battle to take control of Congress. Then there’s the fight to replace Gov. Jerry Brown, who is retiring, and the challenge from the left to Senator Dianne Feinstein, who is not.

今年，在加利福尼亚州肯定也是这样。长年在全国选举中沦为边缘后，加州发现自己处在民主党争夺国会控制权斗争的核心。然后是对即将退休的州长杰里·布朗(Jerry Brown)接替者的争夺，以及左翼对非左翼参议员黛安·范斯坦(Dianne Feinstein)发起的挑战。

I have covered national politics for more years than I will admit to — let’s just say I have observed more than one “Jerry Brown for president” campaign — and as a rule, I avoid the who-is-going-to-win question. (Indeed, the one time I broke my no predictions rule was in the presidential election of 2016. Let’s just leave it at that.)

我报道全国政治新闻的年头超出了自己能容忍的极限。这么说吧，我不止一次目睹“杰里·布朗竞选总统”的呼声。我给自己定的规矩是，避开“谁会赢”这个问题。（实际上，我唯一一次打破不做预测的规矩是在2016年总统选举期间。这个话题就说到这吧。)

Still, this period in California politics is as fraught⁴ and interesting as any since Arnold Schwarzenegger moved from Hollywood to Sacramento and became governor in a wild recall election. Interest is about as high as it ever gets in California for a nonpresidential election.

尽管如此，在加州政坛，这个时期令人担忧和有趣的程度堪比阿诺德·施瓦辛格(Arnold Schwarzenegger)从好莱坞搬到萨克拉门托，并在一次疯狂的罢免选举中当选州长以来的任何一个时期。就非总统选举而言，加州人的兴趣几乎达到了有史以来的最高点。

It’s a little confusing — eight congressional races and a few dozen candidates. And the day to go to the polls is closer than you might think: A nonpartisan, open primary on June 5 will determine the lineup for the November ballot⁵ — and we will know a lot that night about Democratic hopes for posting the big gains they need on the West Coast. (A big reason for that is the unusual system California has for choosing candidates. You can read about it here.)

情况有点令人费解——八个国会选举和几十个候选人。并且现在距离投票日期近得超乎你想象：6月5日的无党派公开初选将决定谁会出现在11月的选票上。此外，关于民主党是否能在西海岸获得所需的大收获，我们可以在当晚了解到大量信息。（造成这种情况的一大原因是加州与众不同的候选人选择制度。可点击此处进一步了解。）

We are here to help. Below are state-of-play cards in races for Senate, governor and eight House seats, a handy glimpse at the candidates, districts and issues. We will be updating this throughout the week.

我们来给你帮个忙。下面是参议院、州长和八个众议院席位的竞选现状，简单介绍了候选人、选区和问题。我们整周都会持续更新。

[Read our related coverage⁶ including a midterm calendar, Senate previewand House preview.]

[欢迎阅读相关报道，包括中期选举安排、参议院情况概述和众议院情况概述。]

Top Races to Watch

最值得关注的竞选

Governor

州长

Incumbent⁷: None. Jerry Brown, a Democrat³, is retiring.

现任：无。民主党人杰里·布朗即将退休。

The contenders: The main Democrats⁸ are Gavin Newsom, the lieutenant⁹ governor and a former mayor of San Francisco; Antonio Villaraigosa, a former mayor of Los Angeles; John Chiang, the state treasurer¹⁰; and Delaine Eastin, the former superintendent¹¹ of public education. The two main Republicans are John Cox, a business executive endorsed¹² by President Trump¹³, and Travis Allen, a State Assembly member.

竞争者：主要的民主党角逐者是曾任旧金山市市长的副州长加文·纽瑟姆(Gavin Newsom)、前洛杉矶市市长安东尼奥·维拉莱戈萨(Antonio Villaraigosa)、州财政负责人江俊辉(John Chiang)和前公共教育负责人德莱纳·伊斯汀(Delaine Eastin)。两名主要的共和党人选分别是得到特朗普总统支持的商界高管约翰·考克斯(John Cox)和州议员特拉维斯·艾伦(Travis Allen)。

How tough a race? By most measures — think money and poll numbers — Mr. Newsom is a clear front-runner going into the June 5 vote. The big question is whether this turns into a two-person race with Mr. Villaraigosa, a well-known figure in Southern California who could draw significant financial support. Mr. Newsom is doing what he can to make sure that it does not, running ads intended to boost the prospects¹⁵ of Mr. Cox. (In promoting Mr. Cox, Mr. Newsom finds himself in an unusual alliance with Mr. Trump.)

竞争激烈程度：从资金和民调数字等大部分衡量标准来看，纽瑟姆会在6月5日的投票中领先。一大问题是，这会不会变成他与维拉莱戈萨两人之间的竞争。后者是南加州的名人，能够获得大量财务支持。纽瑟姆正在尽其所能地确保不出现这一幕，投放意在增加考克斯胜机的广告。（在宣传考克斯这件事上，纽瑟姆发现自己与特朗普处在同一个不寻常的阵线之中。）

Big question: Will Mr. Cox make it to the November ballot against Mr. Newsom? If he does, the race pretty much ends when the votes are counted next Tuesday; California is overwhelmingly Democratic and Mr. Cox’s alliance with Mr. Trump — if valuable in a primary to win over Republican voters — won’t be particularly helpful in a general election. If Mr. Villaraigosa squeaks¹⁶ in to get a spot on the ballot, California is in for an interesting race.

一大问题：考克斯会出现在11月的选票上，和纽瑟姆展开角逐吗？如果会，那么下周二清点选票时，这场竞选基本上就结束了。加州大部分人支持民主党，考克斯与特朗普的联盟即使在初选中对争取共和党选民很有帮助，也不会在大选中特别有用。如果维拉莱戈萨能够挤进去，在选票上获得一席之地，加州即将迎来一场有趣的大战。

U.S. Senate

国会参议院

Incumbent: Senator Dianne Feinstein

现任：黛安·范斯坦参议员

Résumé: Seeking a sixth term, Ms. Feinstein, 84, is an institution in California politics. She is a former San Francisco mayor, a member of the Board of Supervisors¹⁸, and one of the most powerful Democrats in Washington.

简历：正在谋求第六届任期的范斯坦现年84岁，在加州政坛大名鼎鼎。她曾担任旧金山市市长，是监督委员会(Board of Supervisors)的委员，也是华盛顿影响力最大的民主党人之一。

Main opponents: Kevin de León, the former Democratic leader of the State Senate. Are there any Republicans? Yes. But it does not appear that any of them will make it through the June primary to win a spot on the November ballot. We will let you know over the next week if it looks like that might change. Watch this space.

主要对手：曾担任州参议院民主党领袖的凯文·德·莱昂(Kevin de León)。有共和党的吗？有。但似乎他们之中没人能通过6月的初选，出现在11月的选票上。如果情况有变，我们会在下周让大家知道。敬请关注。

How tough a race? Not particularly tough at all. Ms. Feinstein is far ahead of Mr. de León in most polls and in fund-raising.

竞争激烈程度：不是特别激烈。在大部分民调和资金募集方面，范斯坦远远领先于德·莱昂。

Big question: Mr. de León began his campaign on the hope that a wave of Democratic activism — and a sense that Ms. Feinstein is too moderate and has been around for too long — would translate into a surge of support for a newcomer. Might that happen in a two-person general election?

一大问题：德莱昂开启自己的竞选活动是基于这样一种希望：民主派的活动浪潮——以及范斯坦太过温和、在位太久的感觉——会导致对新来者的支持激增。这种情况会发生在两人的普选中吗？

[Dianne Feinstein is a California fixture¹⁹. Unseating her is an uphill challenge.]

[黛安娜·范斯坦是加州的元老级人物。取代她是一项艰巨的挑战。]

Congressional District 10: Central Valley

国会第10区：中央谷地

Incumbent: Representative Jeff Denham

现任：众议员杰夫·德纳姆(Jeff Denham)

Résumé: Seeking a fourth term, Mr. Denham is a Republican former state senator and an Air Force veteran who served in Operation Desert Storm.

简历：德纳姆在寻求第四个任期，他是共和党前州参议员，也是一名空军老兵，曾参与沙漠风暴行动(Operation Desert Storm)。

Main opponents: Michael Eggman, a farmer making his third run against Mr. Denham; Josh Harder, a venture capitalist; and Virginia Madue?o, a public relations executive.

竞争者：迈克尔·艾格曼(Michael Eggman)，一名农民，他是第三次挑战德纳姆；乔希·哈德(Josh Harder)，一位风险投资者；以及弗吉尼娅·马杜埃尼奥(Virginia Madue?o)，一位公共关系主管。

How tough a race? Mr. Denham defeated Mr. Eggman in 2016 with 51.7 percent of the vote.

竞争激烈程度：2016年，德纳姆以51.7%的得票率击败了艾格曼。

2016 results: Hillary Clinton won this district with 48 percent of the vote.

2016年的选举结果：希拉里·克林顿以48%的得票率赢得了该选区。

Big question: Can Democrats drive up the Latino vote in this Central Valley district?

一大问题：民主党能争取到中央谷地拉丁裔的更多选票吗？

Congressional District 21: Central Valley

国会第21区：中央谷地

Incumbent: Representative David Valadao

现任：众议员戴维·瓦拉达奥(David Valadao)

Résumé: Mr. Valadao, a rancher and former assemblyman, was elected in 2012.

简历：瓦拉达奥是一名牧场主，2012年当选国会众议员。

Main opponent: T.J. Cox, a businessman.

主要对手：商人T·J·考克斯(T.J. Cox)

How tough a race? He won re-election with nearly 57 percent of the vote.

竞争激烈程度：他以近57%的选票赢得连任。

2016 results: Mrs. Clinton thumped²⁰ Mr. Trump with 55 percent of the vote.

2016年的竞选结果：克林顿获得55%的选票，击败特朗普。

Big question: Is the Trump drag big enough to pull down a Republican who otherwise should not have a difficult race, particularly against an opponent who doesn’t live in the district?

一大问题：特朗普的拖累是否足以让一名共和党候选人落选？他的竞选本应不难，尤其是对手并不住在这个选区。

[Read more about this district and others in farming communities.]

[欢迎阅读更多有关这个选取和其他农业地区选区的报道。]

Congressional District 25: Los Angeles County

国会第25区：洛杉矶县。

Incumbent: Representative Steve Knight²¹

现任：众议员史蒂夫·奈特(Steve Knight)

Résumé: He was elected in 2014. Mr. Knight, a Republican, has served in the State Senate, the State Assembly and the Palmdale City Council.

简历：奈特是一名共和党，2014年当选，曾在州参议院、州议会和帕姆代尔市议会任职。

Main opponents: Bryan Caforio, a Los Angeles lawyer who challenged him in 2016; Katie Hill, the head of a nonprofit helping²² homeless people; and Jess Phoenix²³, a volcanologist.

主要对手：曾在2016年向他发起挑战的洛杉矶律师布莱恩·卡福里奥(Bryan Caforio)、一个帮助无家可归者的非营利组织负责人凯蒂·希尔( Katie Hill)和火山学专家杰斯·菲尼克斯(Jess Phoenix)。

How tough a race? He beat Mr. Caforio with 53 percent of the vote in 2016.

竞争激烈程度：2016年，他以53%的得票率击败卡福里奥。

2016 results: Mrs. Clinton won this district with 50 percent of the vote.

2016年的选举结果：克林顿以50%的选票拿下这个选区。

Big question: Will Democrats end up with the person whom party strategists consider their strongest prospect¹⁴ in the November campaign after the multicandidate June 5 contest? In the field, Mr. Caforio or Ms. Hill are the most likely to end up the Democratic challenger to Mr. Knight; Ms. Hill is viewed as the stronger candidate.

一大问题：6月5日的差额选举结束后，民主党最后会出现一个党内策略师认为最有望在11月的选举中获胜的人吗？角逐者中，卡福里奥或希尔最有可能成为与奈特对决的民主党人。希尔被认为实力更强。

Congressional District 39: Orange County

国会第39区：奥兰治县

Incumbent: Open. Representative Ed Royce, a Republican, is not seeking re-election

现任：空缺。共和党众议员埃德·罗伊斯(Ed Royce)不谋求连任。

Top candidates: An open seat means there are Republicans and Democrats on the ballot. Republicans include Bob Huff, a former minority leader of the State Senate; Shawn Nelson, an Orange County supervisor¹⁷; and Young Kim, a former member of the Assembly. Democrats include Gil Cisneros, a wealthy philanthropist, and Mai Khanh Tran, a pediatrician.

最有希望的候选人：席位空缺意味着选票上既有共和党人，也有民主党人。共和党人包括前州参议院少数党领袖鲍勃·赫夫( Bob Huff)、奥兰治县监督委员肖恩·纳尔逊(Shawn Nelson)和年轻的前州议员扬·金(Young Kim)。民主党人包括富甲一方的慈善家吉尔·西斯内罗斯(Gil Cisneros)和儿科医生马伊·汗·德兰(Mai Khanh Tran)。

How tough a race? It’s probably tougher for Republicans without Mr. Royce, particularly if Mr. Cisneros gets on the ballot — he has the money to wage a strong campaign.

竞争激烈程度：没了罗伊斯，对共和党来说可能更难，西斯内罗斯出现在选票上的话尤其如此。他拥有发起一场势头强劲的竞选活动的资金。

2016 results: Mrs. Clinton won 51 percent of the vote.

2016年的选举结果：克林顿获得51%的选票。

Big question: This is another one where California’s open primary system could prove decisive. Will the large field of Democrats allow Republicans to capture the top two positions and lock out Democrats from the November ballot?

一大问题：这场选举会再次表明，加州的公开初选制度可能会起决定性的作用。规模庞大的民主党候选人会允许共和党占据前两名的位置，将民主党排除在11月的选票之外吗？

Congressional District 45: Orange County

国会第45区：奥兰治县

Incumbent: Representative Mimi Walters

现任：众议员米米·沃尔特斯(Mimi Walters)

Résumé: A Republican, she was elected to Congress in 2014, coming up from the California Assembly and Senate. She is a former investment banker.

简历：共和党人，她于2014年当选为国会议员，之前任职于加州众议会和参议院。她曾是投资银行从业者。

Main opponents: Katie Porter, a consumer advocacy lawyer and professor at the University of California, Irvine; Dave Min, a law professor at U.C., Irvine; and Brian Forde, who worked as a science adviser²⁴ in the Obama White House.

竞争者：消费者维权律师、加州大学欧文分校(University of California, Irvine)教授凯蒂·波特(Katie Porter)；加州大学欧文分校法学教授戴夫·米恩(Dave Min)；以及曾担任奥巴马政府科学顾问的布赖恩·福德(Brian Forde)。

How tough a race? She won in 2016 with 58 percent of the vote.

竞争激烈程度：沃尔特斯在2016年赢得了58%的选票。

2016 results: Mrs. Clinton won with 49.8 percent of the vote.

2016年的选举结果：克林顿以49.8%的得票率赢得了该区。

Big question: A good district to watch how the health care issue plays out: Ms. Walters voted to repeal²⁵ Obamacare in favor of Trumpcare, and Democrats are using it as an issue against her.

一大问题：在这个区可以很好地观察医保法案产生的影响：沃尔特斯投票废除奥巴马医改法案，支持特朗普医改法案，民主党人在利用这个问题打击她。

Congressional District 48: Orange County

国会第48区：奥兰治县

Incumbent: Representative Dana Rohrabacher

现任：众议员达纳·罗拉巴克尔(Dana Rohrabacher)

Résumé: An Orange County institution, the Republican has been in Congress since 1989.

简历：这位共和党人是奥兰治县的知名人物，自1989年以来一直在国会任职。

Main opponents: Mr. Rohrabacher has drawn²⁶ a Republican challenger, Scott Baugh. Two Democrats are Harley Rouda, a businessman, and Hans Keirstead, a biomedical researcher.

主要对手：罗拉巴克尔有一位共和党挑战者——斯科特·鲍(Scott Baugh)。他的两位民主党对手分别是商人哈利·容达(Harley Rouda)和生物医学研究者汉斯·基尔斯特德(Hans Keirstead)。

How tough a race? Presumably quite tough. Mr. Rohrabacher is very close to Mr. Trump, and there have been a series of reports tying him to Russia and Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder²⁷.

竞争激烈程度：很可能会非常激烈。罗拉巴克尔与特朗普关系非常密切，有一系列报道将他与俄罗斯以及维基解密创始人朱利安·阿桑奇(Julian Assange)联系在一起。

2016 results: Mrs. Clinton won with 48 percent of the vote.

2016年的选举结果：克林顿赢得了该区48%的选票。

Big question: Will this race — which had been a top target for Democrats — slip away because of California’s top-two primary system? Mr. Baugh, a former Orange County Republican leader, is running a very strong campaign and this could end up being a Rohrabacher-Baugh race in November.

一大问题：赢得这个席位是民主党的首要目标，他们会因为加州的前两大初选体系而受挫吗？鲍曾是奥兰治县的共和党领袖，正在进行声势浩大的竞选活动，可能会导致11月的竞选变成“罗拉巴克尔与鲍”之间的竞争。

Congressional District 49: Orange and San Diego Counties

国会第49区：奥兰治县和圣迭戈县

Incumbent: Open. Representative Darrell Issa, a Republican, is not seeking re-election.

现任：无。共和党众议员达雷尔·伊萨(Darrell Issa)不寻求连任。

Main opponents: An open seat means there are Republicans and Democrats on the ballot. The Democrats include Doug Applegate, a Marine²⁸ veteran who ran against Mr. Issa last time; Sara Jacobs, a former foreign policy adviser for Mrs. Clinton’s 2016 campaign and the granddaughter of the co-founder of Qualcomm; Paul Kerr, a businessman; and Mike Levin, an environmental lawyer. The Republicans include Rocky Chávez, a State Assembly member, and Diane Harkey, a member of the Board of Equalization.

竞争者：职位空缺意味着选票上既有共和党人，也有民主党人。民主党人包括道格·阿普尔盖特(Doug Applegate)，他是一名海军陆战队老兵，上次曾和伊萨交手；萨拉·雅各布(Sara Jacobs)，她是克林顿2016年竞选团队的外交政策顾问，也是高通(Qualcomm)一位联合创始人的孙女；商人保罗·克尔(Paul Kerr)；以及环保律师迈克·莱文(Mike Levin)。共和党竞选者包括加州众议院成员罗基·查韦斯(Rocky Chávez)以及加州公平委员会(Board of Equalization)成员黛安·哈基(Diane Harkey)。

How tough a race? This was a big Democratic target when the always controversial Mr. Issa was on the ballot (he won by 1,700 votes in 2016). His decision to step aside has made it tougher for Democrats.

竞争激烈程度：去年，一向充满争议的伊萨在候选人之列时，赢得这个席位曾是民主党的重大目标（伊萨在2016年以1700张选票获胜）。他辞职的决定使得民主党的处境更加艰难。

2016 results: Mrs. Clinton won here with 50.7 percent.

2016年的选举结果：克林顿以50.7%的得票率获胜。

Big question: This is another district where Democrats have a crowded field and are in danger of getting shut out of the November election.

一大问题：这是另一个拥有众多民主党人，但他们有可能被排除在11月的选举之外的地方。

Congressional District 50: San Diego County

国会第50区：圣迭戈县

Incumbent: Representative Duncan Hunter

现任：众议员邓肯·亨特(Duncan Hunter)

Résumé: Elected in 2008.

简历：2008年当选

Main opponents: His Democratic challengers include Josh Butner, a former Navy SEAL officer, and Ammar Campa-Najjar, who was a fellow in the Obama White House.

主要对手：他的民主党对手包括前海军海豹突击队(Navy SEAL)军官乔希·巴特纳(Josh Butner)，以及前奥巴马白宫成员阿马尔·坎帕·纳贾尔(Ammar Campa-Najjar)。

How tough a race? Mr. Hunter is facing an investigation²⁹ for the improper³⁰ use of campaign funds, putting an otherwise safe Republican seat in play. The San Diego Union-Tribune weighed in with an editorial the other day under this headline: “50th District: Anyone but Duncan Hunter.”

竞选激烈程度：亨特正在接受不当使用竞选资金的调查，共和党的这个原本安全的席位也受到了挑战。几天前，《圣迭戈联合论坛报》(The San Diego Union-Tribune)加入论战，发表了一篇文章，标题是《第50区：除了邓肯·亨特，谁都可以》。

2016年的选举结果：特朗普获得了该区54.6%的选票。

Big question: Will corruption³¹ allegations hovering³² over this campaign, along with the problems the Republican Party is experiencing in California, give Democrats a chance at capturing this seat? And will Mr. Hunter be indicted³³, giving Republicans an opportunity to put a stronger candidate on the ballot this November?

一大问题：笼罩本次竞选的腐败指控，以及共和党在加州遇到的问题，会给民主党一个赢得该席位的机会吗？亨特会被起诉吗？会因此让共和党有机会在11月的选举中派出一位更有力的候选人吗？