The prize for the worst performing major commodity of 2014 goes to . . .

2014年度“表现最差大宗商品奖”的得主是……

If you thought the answer was oil, you would be wrong. Crude’s vertiginous¹ fall since June may have grabbed the headlines, but as the year draws to a close, iron ore is on track to take the unwanted accolade².

如果你以为答案是石油，那你就错了。原油价格自6月以来令人眩晕的下跌或许抢占了媒体的头条，但在临近年末之际盘点这一年的情况，这顶不受欢迎的桂冠应该会戴到铁矿石头上。

The price of the steelmaking ingredient, a profit generator³ for big mining houses such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale, has dropped more than 50 per cent over the course of the year, outpacing Brent, the international oil marker, down 45 per cent.

作为炼钢原料，铁矿石的价格今年已累计下跌逾50%，超过了国际原油基准布伦特原油(Brent crude)的跌幅，后者今年以来累计下跌了45%。铁矿石是必和必拓(BHP Billiton)、力拓(Rio Tinto)和淡水河谷(Vale)等大型矿商的摇钱树。

The reason for the meltdown is primarily supply. The big producers brought a significant amount of new capacity on line this year just as demand growth in China, the biggest steel producer and consumer of seaborne iron ore, started to slow.

铁矿石暴跌的主要原因是供给过剩。大型铁矿石生产商今年新上线了大量产能，而中国对铁矿石的需求增速又恰好开始放缓。中国是全球第一大钢材生产国和海运铁矿石消费国。

Ominously⁴, they plan to add more tonnes to the market in 2015 even though the iron ore price is at a five-and-half-year low of $65.50 a tonne.

不妙的是，尽管铁矿石价格已然处于每吨65.50美元这一5年半低点，这些铁矿石生产商仍然计划在2015年进一步增加市场供应。

With the majors seemingly hell-bent on delivering these extra tonnes — as the lowest-cost producers running vast operations, they assume they can withstand weak prices while rivals fall out of the market — the question is what, if anything, can absorb or offset⁵ this fresh supply.

大型铁矿石生产商看上去铁了心要增加供应，它们的生产成本最低、经营规模最大，因而认为在竞争对手纷纷出局的时候，自己能够撑过这段价格低迷期。那么问题来了：什么东西（如果真有这种东西的话）能够消化、或抵消新增的供应呢？

Those looking to increased demand from China’s steelmaking industry are likely to be disappointed. Morgan Stanley thinks 2015 will mark the peak in Chinese steel consumption and production.

那些寄望于中国钢材行业将增加需求的人很可能会失望。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)认为，中国的钢材消费和生产将在2015年见顶。

The case for a stabilisation in prices rests on more supply leaving the seaborne market. Rio Tinto estimates 125m tonnes of capacity will close this year. The cuts have come from non-mainstream producers as well as high-cost, privately⁶ owned, mines in China itself.

铁矿石价格企稳的希望寄托在海运市场减少供应上。力拓估计，今年将有1.25亿吨产能关闭。非主流生产商以及中国国内那些高成本的民营矿商已为削减供应做出了贡献。

But the remaining high-cost supply could be more difficult to dislodge.

但余下的高成本供应可能更难移除。

Depreciating⁷ commodity currencies have thrown a lifeline to some producers, while large parts of the Chinese mining and steel industry are controlled by state-owned steel companies where jobs, not profits, are the priority. A sustained period of low prices — perhaps $50 a tonne — will be needed to force closures.

大宗商品出口国货币贬值，让一些生产商得到了喘息的机会。与此同时，中国采矿和钢材行业大部分为国有钢铁公司控制，它们优先考虑的是就业、而非利润。只有铁矿石价格长期徘徊在低位，比如每吨50美元，才会迫使生产商关闭产能。