Analysts² last week descended³ on Yum Brands in Shanghai with a volley of tough questions after billionaire investor⁴ Dan Loebsuggested the US fast-food chain consider hiving off its Chinese operations.

在亿万富翁投资者丹•洛布(Dan Loeb)建议百胜餐饮集团(Yum Brands)考虑剥离中国业务后，分析师上周在上海向这家美国快餐连锁集团抛出了一大堆尖锐问题。

The annual Shanghai investor conference, scheduled long before Mr Loeb’s intervention⁵, came as the fate of the woe-laden China operations of the owner of KFC and Pizza Hut is uppermost in investors⁶’ minds.

百胜旗下拥有肯德基(KFC)和必胜客(Pizza Hut)等餐饮品牌。在上海举行年度投资者会议之际，其麻烦缠身的在华业务成为投资者最关心的问题。这次投资者会议早在洛布插手经营战略之前就已排定。

What Mr Loeb dubbed⁷ a play on a “unique open-ended middle-class growth story in China” is valued at $20bn-$22bn by analysts. But the view from the streets is rather less gung ho, with restaurants as likely to be stuffed with thrifty⁸ grannies as the upwardly mobile middle-class patrons referred to by Mr Loeb.

洛布将剥离百胜中国业务称作一笔“利用中国中产阶级独特、无限增长题材”的交易，分析师估计其价值可达200亿至220亿美元。但在一般投资者看来，情况却没有那么乐观。洛布认为百胜中国旗下餐厅接待的都是有能力攀爬社会阶梯的中产阶级顾客，但这些餐厅很可能坐满了节俭的中国大妈。

For the past quarter of a century, KFC was the gold standard for foreign brands among Chinese. But now its restaurants, especially in big cities, play host to grannies entertaining an only grandchild or elderly matchmakers running impromptu⁹ dating agencies alongside the more lucrative¹⁰ customers.

过去四分之一世纪里，肯德基一直是在华外国品牌的典范。但如今的肯德基餐厅，特别是大城市的肯德基餐厅，除了一部分钱包鼓鼓的顾客，还是老奶奶款待家中独孙、或上了年纪的媒人临时给人做媒的地方。

“I am tempted¹¹ to say KFC’s best days in China are probably behind them. They are dealing¹² with a lot of tough trends,” says James Roy, consumer analyst¹ at China Market Research in Shanghai.

上海中国市场研究集团(China Market Research)消费行业分析师詹姆斯•罗伊(James Roy)表示：“我不得不说，肯德基在中国最好的日子很可能已经过去了。它眼下面对许多不利趋势。”

These challenges include rising labour costs and rents, labour shortages, changing consumer tastes and increasing competition. This suggests that Yum faces more structural¹³ problems than simply a blip caused by the recent food safety scandals .

这些挑战包括：劳动力成本和租金不断上涨，人工短缺，消费者口味改变，竞争日益加剧。这说明，百胜所面临的更多是结构性问题，而不止是近期食品安全丑闻带来的暂时麻烦。

“Yum China has recovered from previous downturns in its business. However, each time the recovery has taken longer and requires more marketing¹⁴ expenditure,” says Li Junheng of JL Warren Capital. “Yum’s challenges in China are mostly structural, rather than one-off. These structural issues are unlikely to disappear with financial engineering that focuses on expanding the stock multiple and ignores fundamentals.”

“百胜中国从之前的多次业务低谷中走了出来。然而，复苏所花的时间和营销支出一次比一次多，”沃伦资本(JL Warren Capital)的李君蘅说。“百胜在中国面临的挑战大多是结构性、而非一次性的。靠一些推高股票估值倍数而忽视基本面的财务手段，不太可能解决这些结构性问题。”

KFC faces growing competition from innovative¹⁵ start-up fast-dining concepts. Mr Roy says “China is evolving away from that type of restaurant. They need to do something to remain relevant — and they aren’t doing it as well as, for example, McDonald’s.”

肯德基日益面对来自创新创业型快餐概念的竞争。罗伊表示，“这类餐厅在中国越来越不流行了。他们必须采取措施避免被边缘化，而在这方面他们没有别的企业——比如麦当劳(McDonald's)——做得好。”

Yum recently reported a 12 per cent annual same-store sales decline in the first quarter and weaker margins¹⁶. But Greg Creed¹⁷, its chief executive, predicted a better second half to the year.

百胜最近的财报称，中国市场第一季度同店销售额同比下降12%，利润也同比下滑。但该公司首席执行官格雷格•克里德(Greg Creed)预计今年下半年业绩会有所好转。

KFC’s decline comes at a time when foreign retail¹⁸ brands are struggling in China not just in the fast-food sector¹⁹, but in many areas including supermarkets, electronics and home improvement retailing²⁰. Big international brands such as US retailers²¹ Best Buy and Home Depot²² have been forced to abandon China in recent years.

在肯德基走下坡路之际，不少外国零售品牌都在华遭遇了困难，不止是快餐业，超市、电子产品和家装零售等许多行业也是如此。近年来，美国零售商百思买(Best Buy)和家得宝(Home Depot)等大型国际品牌都被迫退出了中国市场。

But Sara Senatore, restaurant analyst at Bernstein, who attended the conference, sees a brighter future for Yum in China. “They appear to be recovering from the supply chain scandals.

但参加了百胜上海年度投资者会议的伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)餐厅分析师萨拉•塞纳托雷(Sara Senatore)，却对百胜在华前景持较为乐观的看法。“他们看上去正在从供应链丑闻中走出来。”

“While they acknowledge the market has become more competitive  . . . because of the advantages they have always had here, scale, brand recognition and supply chain, there is every reason to believe they can retain their market share leadership,” she says.

她说：“尽管他们承认市场竞争已变得更加激烈……但由于他们在这里一直拥有一些优势，比如规模、品牌认知度和供应链，因此有充分理由相信他们能够保住在市场份额方面的领先地位。”

Torsten Stocker, greater China retail partner at A.T. Kearney, the professional services firm, says it is too soon to predict the demise²³ of one of the mainland’s most famous brands. “It is natural that a ‘market creator’ like Yum will have to work extra-hard to stay ahead of the competitors that it often spawns²⁴ itself,” he adds

咨询公司科尔尼(A.T. Kearney)大中华区零售业合伙人托尔斯滕•施托克尔(Torsten Stocker)表示，现在就预言一个在中国内地极为知名的品牌将走上末路还为时太早。他接着说：“像百胜这样的‘市场创造者’自然必须付出额外的努力，才能一直领先于往往由它自己孕育出的竞争对手。”