Angela Merkel, the German chancellor¹, is right that the current refugee crisis is forcing Europe to consider whether it can live up to its own, self-proclaimed values. Unfortunately, the answer is likely to be “No”.

德国总理安格拉默克尔(Angela Merkel)说得没错，目前的难民危机正迫使欧洲考虑能否践行自己所标榜的价值观。遗憾的是，答案很可能是“不能”。

For almost 500 years, European nations dominated, colonised and populated the rest of the world. After 1945, the states of western Europe signed up to a new post-imperial and post-fascist set of values, based on universal human rights and enshrined in documents such as the 1951 UN Convention on refugees.

近500年以来，欧洲国家称霸世界其他地区、进行殖民，并将人口输往世界各地。1945年后，西欧国家达成了一套新的后帝国主义及后法西斯主义的价值观。这些价值观基于普世的人权，并被写入1951年版的联合国《关于难民地位的公约》等文件中。

But the desperate and dispossessed of the world were largely kept at a distance, while Europeans continued to enjoy some of the highest living standards in the world. Faced with distressing² images of famines or wars in the “third world”, Europeans could salve their consciences by making a donation to charity or attending a benefit concert.

但是，世界上的绝望和流离失所基本上都发生在距欧洲很远的地方，而欧洲人则继续享受着可谓全世界最高的生活水平。面对“第三世界”令人悲伤的关于饥荒或战争的图片时，欧洲人可以通过向慈善组织捐款或参加慈善音乐会来慰藉自己的良心。

Now the refugee crisis is asking Europeans to live up to their values in ways that are likely to be costly³, inconvenient⁴ and that will accelerate far-reaching social changes. It would be heartwarming to believe that the crowds that turned out to welcome Syrian refugees arriving at Munich station show that Europe will respect its commitments in full. It would also be dangerously naive⁵.

眼下难民危机正在要求欧洲人以很可能代价高昂、造成不便、并将加速深远社会变革的方式，去践行自己的价值观。大批人群专程欢迎抵达慕尼黑火车站的叙利亚难民，认为这表明欧洲将完全遵守自己承诺的想法或许暖人心房。但这也天真得危险。

There are already signs that even the German government is having second thoughts about the numbers involved. The Germans may be able to shame and bully⁶ their European partners into sharing the refugee burden, through a system of quotas⁷. But the numbers literally⁸ do not add up.

已有迹象表明，德国政府甚至也在重新考虑相关的数字。德国人或许可以羞辱或威吓欧洲伙伴，迫使后者通过一个配额体系共同承担难民负担。但数字加起来确实不够。

The European Commission, has proposed that the EU should take 160,000 refugees. This marks a considerable increase on the 40,000 the commission proposed last July. But there are already 4m Syrian refugees living outside their country. Germany alone expects to get 800,000 asylum⁹ applications, from Syria and elsewhere, this year.

欧盟委员会(European Commission)提议，欧盟应该接收16万难民。与去年7月欧盟委员会提出的4万人的数字相比，这标志着相当可观的增加。但是目前已有400万叙利亚难民背井离乡。仅德国今年预计就将收到80万份来自叙利亚及其他地区的庇护申请。

The perception that Germany has now decided¹⁰ to accept all Syrians — combined with the hope of further changes in EU policy — seems likely to persuade more of the millions of refugees stuck in camps in Turkey or the Middle East to attempt the dangerous journey to Europe. Nor are the Syrians the only desperate group. There are also, collectively, hundreds of thousands of Eritreans, Afghans and Iraqis on the move.

认为德国已决定接收所有的叙利亚人、欧盟政策也有望进一步改变的想法，似乎很可能会鼓动困在土耳其或中东难民营的数百万难民中的更多人去尝试前往欧洲的危险旅程。叙利亚人并非唯一不顾一切的群体，还有总计数十万的厄立特里亚人、阿富汗人以及伊拉克人处于迁移之中。

At some point, the desperation and hopes of the refugees are likely to collide with the fears and resentments¹¹ of European voters. The eastern European members of the EU have made their unhappiness with refugee quotas very clear. Recent opinion polls also show that a majority of French people oppose any softening¹² of asylum rules, and a British majority back the Cameron government’s determination not to accept EU-mandated quotas.

在某个时刻，难民的绝望和希望很可能会与欧洲选民的恐惧和不满发生冲突。欧盟中的东欧成员国已经非常明确地表示了其对难民配额的不满。最近的民调也表明，法国大多数人反对放松庇护规则，而多数英国人则支持卡梅伦当局不接受欧盟强制配额的决心。

These reactions should not come as a surprise, Europe’s fear of illegal immigrants and asylum seekers is replicated¹³ in both Australia and the US — rich, largely white countries that were once offshoots of European civilisation¹⁴. In Australia, the government of Tony Abbott won power after promising¹⁵ to “stop the boats” of would-be refugees, heading for Australian shores. Mr Abbott’s policies have been condemned¹⁶ by the UN and human-rights groups — but seem popular in Australia itself.

人们不应该对此感到意外，欧洲对非法移民及寻求庇护者的恐惧同样出现在澳大利亚和美国——这两个曾为欧洲文明分支、富有且以白人为主的国家。在澳大利亚，托尼縠伯特(Tony Abbott)当局在承诺“阻止”开往澳大利亚海岸的载有准难民的船只后当选。艾伯特的政策受到了联合国和人权组织的谴责——但是在澳大利亚本国似乎很受欢迎。

In the US, the remarkable¹⁷ emergence¹⁸ of Donald Trump¹⁹ as a serious candidate for the Republican presidential nomination²⁰ is driven, in large part, by his ability to play on fears of illegal immigration. Experts dismiss Mr Trump’s plan to deport²¹ 11m illegal immigrants and to build a giant wall along the Mexican border as impractical²² and immoral²³. But the Trump surge has pushed other Republicans to take similar positions.

在美国，唐纳德礠朗普(Donald Trump)作为共和党总统候选人提名热门人选的异军突起，在很大程度上得益于其利用人们对非法移民的恐惧的能力。特朗普提出了驱逐1100万非法移民并要沿墨西哥边界修建巨型隔离墙的计划，专家们斥之为不切实际且不道德。但特朗普的崛起迫使其他共和党人也采取类似的立场。

Thomas Edsall, a shrewd analyst²⁴ of race and politics in the US, argues that in his use of immigration “Donald Trump is part of a movement gaining momentum²⁵ among whites across the northern hemisphere”, including Europe. As Mr Edsall points out, a lot of this is to do with race. Some 50.5m Americans are now Hispanic and many white Americans clearly feel threatened by that. White fears get an extra edge in Europe, where Muslim immigration plays on concerns about terrorism and social cohesion²⁶.

精于分析美国种族和政治问题的托马斯埃兹尔(Thomas Edsall)认为，在利用移民问题上，“唐纳德礠朗普是在北半球（包括欧洲）白人之间势头越来越大的一场运动的一部分”。正如埃兹尔所指出，这在很大程度上与种族相关。如今，约有5050万美国人为西班牙裔，而很多美国白人显然感受到了这带来的威胁。在欧洲，白人又多了一个恐惧的理由，因为穆斯林移民带来了对恐怖主义和社会凝聚力的担忧。

Mr Trump will probably never become president and Europe’s far-right and anti-immigration parties will probably fail to win power in a big country. But their arguments have already changed politics and the current migrant crisis will play into their hands.

特朗普或许永远不会成为总统，而欧洲的极右翼及反移民的政党或许也不会在任何一个大国上台执政。但是他们的主张已经改变了欧洲政治，而当前的移民危机将给他们可乘之机。

International law suggests that Europe must offer asylum to every genuine refugee who reaches the EU. Political reality suggests that the numbers involved will be too large to sustain domestic support for such a policy. At that point, European politicians will try to wriggle²⁷ out of their commitments — probably by trying to prevent refugees from reaching the EU in the first place. The harsh deterrents²⁸ adopted by Hungary and Australia — currently the subject of widespread condemnation²⁹ — may come to seem more normal.

根据国际法的规定，欧洲必须为每一位抵达欧盟的真正难民提供庇护。但政治现实是，所涉及的难民数量太大，以至于很难维持国内对该项政策的支持。在这一点上，欧洲的政治人士将设法逃避自己的承诺——很可能会尽力在一开始就阻止难民抵达欧盟。匈牙利和澳大利亚采取的严厉阻遏措施（目前遭到了普遍谴责）可能会变得更加常见。

If Europe’s politicians move down that path, they will be accused — rightly — of failing to live up to “European values”. But, in reality, they face a clash of values. Ms Merkel has said the Europe has a moral and legal obligation to accept genuine refugees. But politicians operating in a democracy also have a moral and legal obligation to respect the wishes of their voters.

如果欧洲的政治人士沿着这条路走下去，他们会受到未能实践“欧洲价值观”的指责——这种指责是恰当的。但是，在现实中，他们面临着价值观的冲突。默克尔说，欧洲有道德和法律义务接纳真正的难民。但是，在民主国家从政的政治人士也有道德和法律义务尊重自己选民的意愿。