We’re in the home stretch before the holidays, that welcome respite¹ before the awards machine cranks back into frenetic gear in the new year, and, as you’ve probably heard, a potential spoiler might have inserted itself late in the race. Spoiler isn’t the right term, given that it was impossible not to be aware of the 8,000-pound gorilla² that is “Stars Wars: The Force Awakens³.”

年末的长假马上就要到了，在新年的颁奖机器疯狂转动之前，我们很欢迎这个喘息的机会。你可能已经听说了，有一部影片可能已在比赛的最后阶段进来搅局。说搅局也许有点不准确，因为《星球大战：原力觉醒》(Stars Wars: The Force Awakens)中8000磅（约合7257斤）重的大猩猩不可能不引起人们的注意。

How will this sequel (the Bagger would argue “requel”) factor into Oscar play? It certainly seems a solid contender for below-the-line work, but when it comes to best picture, the signs are pointing all over the place.

这部续集将如何对奥斯卡角逐产生影响呢？就线下制作(below-the-line，指布景、道具等部分——译注)而言，它无疑是一个强有力的竞争者，但是对最佳影片来说，存在各种相互矛盾的迹象。

While there have been a few awards-minded front-runners for best picture — “Spotlight⁴” and “Carol” — the seeming outliers “Mad Max: Fury Road” and “The Martian,” which in other years would have been dismissed as too genre-y, have found themselves in contention⁵, and collecting awards and nominations⁶. Yet sequels don’t generally win major Oscars, until they do, as “The Godfather Part II” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” showed.

虽然已有几部有意角逐奥斯卡最佳影片的领跑者，比如《聚焦》(Spotlight)和《卡罗尔》(Carol)，但是一些看似与获奖无缘的影片（在往年，它们会被认为是太过明显的类型片而遭到摒弃）也在参与争夺，收获奖项和提名，比如《疯狂的麦克斯4：狂暴之路》(Mad Max: Fury Road)和《火星救援》(The Martian)。不过，续集通常很难赢得奥斯卡大奖，当然也有例外，比如《教父2》(The Godfather Part II)和《指环王3：王者无敌》(The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King)。

In the case of “The Force Awakens,” a best-picture nomination⁷ would be a victory, though sequels don’t often get even that much. (A recent exception beyond “Lord of the Rings” was “Toy Story 3.”) Yet the American Film Institute did name “The Force Awakens” one of the 10 best films of 2015. That said, the institute did the same with “Unbroken” last year, a film that landed no top Oscar noms.

对《星球大战：原力觉醒》来说，能获得奥斯卡最佳影片提名就将是一个胜利，虽然续集往往连提名都得不到（最近的例外除了《指环王3：王者无敌》还有《玩具总动员3》[Toy Story 3]）。不过，美国电影学院(American Film Institute)确实将《星球大战：原力觉醒》列为2015年十佳影片之一。但是，去年《坚不可摧》(Unbroken)也进了前十，最后却没有获得任何一项奥斯卡大奖提名。

But as the Bagger’s astute⁸ pal⁹ Kyle Buchanan over at Vulture noted¹⁰, the Screen Actors Guild¹¹ Awards — one of the more reliable bellwethers¹² — didn’t give much love to the populist blockbusters this year. There were no SAG¹³ nominations for the cast of “The Martian” and only a stunt¹⁴ ensemble¹⁵ nod for “Mad Max.” They also ignored the blockbuster Rocky sequel “Creed¹⁶.” But that guild clearly isn’t wholly averse¹⁷ to box office darlings: the cast from “Straight Outta Compton” — an apparent awards outlier if ever there was one — did garner¹⁸ an SAG nomination.

不过，正如我们专栏敏锐的伙伴凯尔·布坎南(Kyle Buchanan)在Vulture网站上指出的那样，更可信赖的风向标之一美国演员工会奖(Screen Actors Guild Awards)并没不厚爱今年的热门大片。他们没有给予《火星救援》任何一项表演奖项提名，只给了《疯狂的麦克斯4：狂暴之路》最佳特技团体奖提名。他们也不理睬热门大片《洛基》(Rocky)续集《奎迪》(Creed)。不过，美国演员工会奖显然并不是反感所有的票房宠儿：它们给予《冲出康普顿》(Straight Outta Compton)表演奖项提名，虽然该剧显然不是获奖热门。

In the end, what might hamper¹⁹ “The Force Awakens” with the Academy is the fact that it doesn’t break much new cinematic or narrative²⁰ ground. For sure, it compensates²¹ for the sins of the prequels, but that doesn’t mean it feels fresh. The original “Star Wars” did get a best picture nomination — among other Academy nominationss — but it lost to “Annie Hall.” The latest “Star Wars” does faithfully return us to that galaxy²² far, far away — but we’ve been there before.

说到底，阻碍《星球大战：原力觉醒》获得奥斯卡奖的原因可能是它在电影拍摄和叙事方面没有创新。当然，它弥补了前传的问题，但这并不意味着它具有新鲜感。原版《星球大战》的确获得了奥斯卡最佳影片奖提名（也获得了其他奖项的提名），但它输给了《安妮·霍尔》(Annie Hall)。最新一部《星球大战》的确忠诚地把我们带回了那个遥远的星系，但是我们以前就去过了。