It could be a decade before virtual reality headsets become cheap and portable enough to replace smartphones as the tech industry’s dominant¹ computing² platform, the founder³ of Oculus VR has warned.

也许还要10年时间，虚拟现实头盔才能变得足够便宜、轻便，取代智能手机成为科技业主流的计算平台，虚拟现实头盔制造商Oculus VR的创始人提醒说。

Virtual reality is tipped to be one of the biggest themes of this week’s Consumer Electronics Show, with Sony, HTC and Facebook-owned Oculus all set to release their headsets in the first half of 2016.

虚拟现实技术预计将成为本周国际消费电子展(Consumer Electronics Show)最重要的主题之一，索尼(Sony)、HTC以及Facebook旗下的Oculus都将在2016年上半年推出自己的虚拟现实头盔。

However, Palmer Luckey, who founded Oculus from his parents’ garage in 2012, says the technology requires many years of further development before it can “replace smartphones” for mainstream⁴ users.

然而，2012年在父母的车库中创立Oculus的帕尔默勒基(Palmer Luckey)表示，这项技术还需经历多年的进一步发展，才能“取代智能手机”成为主流用户的选择。

“I think until you have really high-end computing power and until you have really slim form factors, you’re not going to see glasses that people wear every day as part of their everyday lives,” Mr Luckey says. “The only way we’re going to get to billions of users is if VR becomes something that everybody wants to use. And I think to do that, you’re going to [need to] get the cost way down and the quality way up.”

“我认为，在拥有真正的高端计算能力并实现外形纤薄化之前，你不会看到那种人们在日常生活中天天戴着的眼镜诞生，”勒基说，“我们赢得数十亿用户的唯一途径是让虚拟现实技术成为人人都愿意使用的东西。我认为要做到这一点，（需要）压低成本、提升品质。”

On how long that might take, Mr Luckey says: “It could be five years. It’s more likely to be 10 years. But I also don’t think that virtual reality has to get to a slim pair of glasses to be successful.”

在被问到这可能需要多长时间时，勒基说：“有可能是5年。更可能是10年。但我也并不认为，虚拟现实非得做成一副轻薄的眼镜才算成功。”

In part, more development is necessary to reduce the risk of a social backlash akin⁵ to that suffered by Google Glass, Mr Luckey says. “I’m not going to pretend that there won’t be an issue, there will always be people who are against these types of things.”

勒基表示，在某种程度上，虚拟现实技术需要进一步的发展，才能减少类似谷歌眼镜(Google Glass)遭遇的社会批评那样的风险。“我不会假装不存在这类问题，因为总会有人反对这些东西。”

He acknowledges that the current headset design is “obviously not the ideal” form factor. “As it goes from a bulky pair of goggles⁶ to a slim pair of glasses, you’re going to have a much different reaction to this type of thing.” But “in the long run, the utility and adoption⁷ will outstrip⁸ any fashion concerns”.

他承认，现在虚拟现实头盔的设计在外形上“显然并非理想”。“如果虚拟现实设备能从笨重的护目镜变成轻薄的眼镜，人们将对它产生截然不同的反应。”但是，“长远来看，其功能与普及度将战胜人们对其外观的担忧”。

Oculus announced yesterday that it would begin taking pre-orders for the Rift⁹ tomorrow. Mr Luckey tweeted that shipping¹⁰ would “start” in the first quarter of 2016. The company has not yet revealed pricing for the first version of its Rift headset but Mr Luckey says it will initially¹¹ be a “significant investment” that “disproportionately” appeals to videogamers and other early adopters in its first years on the market.

Oculus本周一宣布，将从1月6日开始接受对Rift头盔的预订。勒基在Twitter上表示将在2016年第一季度“开始”发货。该公司尚未披露Rift头盔首发版本的定价，但勒基称，购买该产品的花费将是一笔“重大投资”，在该产品上市头几年，只会对视频游戏玩家及其他早期用户有“格外的”吸引力。

Mr Luckey says a VR system will probably cost a total of $1,500, including the headset and a PC powerful enough to run its high-resolution graphics¹² fast enough to maintain the illusion of virtual worlds.

勒基表示，购买一套虚拟现实系统可能共计需要1500美元，包括一个头盔和一台性能足够强大、能以足够快的速度处理高分辨率画面以支持虚拟世界感受的个人电脑。

Even then, the Rift’s cost is being subsidised to make it more affordable¹³, as Facebook and Oculus try to establish the market for VR, he says.

即使在这样的价位上，Rift头盔也是受到了Facebook与Oculus的补贴的，好让更多人买得起。Facebook与Oculus正努力建立虚拟现实市场。

In December, Oculus and Samsung released the more affordable Gear VR headset, which uses a Galaxy¹⁴ smartphone for its screen and processor instead of tethering to a PC. The $99 accessory is seen as a way for newcomers to try out VR for the first time.

去年12月，Oculus和三星(Samsung)发布了更便宜的Gear VR头盔，并使用三星Galaxy智能手机作为显示屏和处理器，以代替连接电脑。这款售价99美元的设备被视为是吸引新手初次体验虚拟现实的一个途径。

Gear VR is a “portable experience that you can take anywhere”, Mr Luckey says. “But the quality of the graphics are definitely much lower quality than what you get on a high-end PC.

Gear VR头盔“让你可以随身携带，在任何地方体验虚拟现实”，勒基说，“但其画质绝对要比从高端个人电脑获得的画质低得多。”