With the shops in Tokyo’s Ginza district preparing to close for the day, and the tour guide begging they return to the coach, two tourists from Chengdu, China, hit a crescendo¹ in their debate over quality, styling and workmanship.

东京银座的商店正准备打烊，导游正在劝说两名来自中国成都的游客回到大巴车上，而这两名游客关于质量、款式和做工的讨论达到了高潮。

Rationed² to a single case each because of extraordinary demand, one grabs the largest box of Merries, the other a box of Goo.N and they leave in divided silence. When it comes to Japanese nappies and their beloved softness, Chinese passions run high.

由于购买需求异常旺盛，每名消费者限购一箱纸尿裤。其中一名游客抓起最大的一箱妙而舒(Merries)，另一个人则拿起一箱大王(Goo.N)，最后带着分歧沉默地离开了。一提到日本纸尿裤及其受人欢迎的柔软度，中国人便热情高涨。

Investors³ are trying to parse⁴ the demographics, arbitrage⁵ windows, bottlenecks⁶ and distortions of an Asian nappy market with annual sales of about $12bn, forecast by CLSA to reach $45bn by 2030.

投资者正尝试着解析亚洲纸尿裤市场的人口统计特征、套利窗口、瓶颈以及扭曲状况。据里昂证券(CLSA)预计，到2030年亚洲纸尿裤市场的年销售额将从目前的120亿美元上涨至450亿美元。

As wealthier societies age, adult diapers are expected to represent an ever-larger portion of these sales, but in the shorter term, the focus is on Asia’s rising middle class and its babies.

随着较富裕国家日益老龄化，成人纸尿裤占亚洲纸尿裤销售额的份额将日益扩大，但是在短期内，亚洲不断壮大的中产阶级及其新生儿才是该市场的重心。

CLSA and Euromonitor data suggest a tight correlation⁷ between expansion of this socio-economic group across the region and increased disposable nappy adoption⁸. Indonesia’s 16m under-threes now work their way through an average of eight disposable nappies per baby per month. Five years ago, demand was a quarter of that.

里昂证券和欧睿(Euromonitor)的数据显示，整个亚洲这一社会经济群体的扩大与一次性纸尿裤的使用量增加之间存在紧密关联。印度尼西亚目前有1600万的3岁以下儿童，平均每个儿童每月使用8片纸尿裤。而5年前的需求量是这一水平的四分之一。

China’s average per baby consumption per month leapt from 21 five years ago to 39 last year. Wang Jingyi, a 25-year-old from Beijing who has a seven-month-old daughter, typifies the local tendency to opt⁹ for Japanese versions. “I’ve never used a Chinese brand diaper,” she explains.

中国婴儿平均每个月使用的纸尿裤数量从5年前的21片增加至去年的39片。王静宜（音译）来自北京，今年25岁，有个7个月大的女儿，她代表了中国人选择日本纸尿裤的倾向。“我从来没用过中国国产品牌的纸尿裤，”她解释道。

As the world’s largest producer of nappy-making machines, Japan’s Zuiko has a privileged insight into this surging market. It says Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia are areas where investment in future nappy production is hottest. Zuiko’s sales figures from last year suggest that it has positioned its mostly Asian customers to churn out an additional 7bn nappies as demand soars.

作为全球最大的纸尿裤生产设备制造商，日本瑞光(Zuiko)对于这个迅速发展的市场有着特有的见解。瑞光称，泰国、马来西亚和印度尼西亚是对未来的纸尿裤生产投资最热的国家。瑞光去年的销售数据表明，随着需求飙升，预计其客户（主要为亚洲厂商）的产量将增加70亿片。

The popularity of Merries, produced by Japan’s Kao Corp and hotly favoured on internet forums¹⁰ in China, is a symptom of the unusual times. The limit of one-box-per-visit for premium¹¹ brands is not only in place at Chinese tourist-thronged stores in Ginza, but in supermarkets across Japan.

妙而舒的人气是如今这个非常时代的一个表现。该品牌由日本花王集团(Kao Corp)生产，在中国的网络论坛上备受青睐。优质品牌每人限购一箱的限制不仅出现在中国游客聚集的银座商店，还存在于日本各地的超市。

Nappy rationing¹², now in force for more than a year, sits strangely in a country with one of the lowest birth-rates in the world.

纸尿裤限购已实施了一年多，在这个出生率居于全世界最低水平的国家，这颇为奇怪。

Kao has ramped¹³ up production in Japan to its limit, and has attempted to take greater control over its ecommerce sales into China. Still the shortages persist, and lead times for new production facilities are longer than they used to be because Japan has led nappy technology to become more complex. Even if Kao placed an order tomorrow with Zuiko for a new Merries-making machine, it would not relieve pressure on the market before early 2017.

花王已经将其在日本的产量提高至极限，并且尝试着更好地控制在中国电子商务渠道的销量。不过短缺情况仍在持续，同时，由于日本引领纸尿裤技术发展得更加复杂，新生产设备的交货周期比过去更长。即便花王明天向瑞光下单订购一台全新的妙而舒生产设备，这也只能在2017年初以后缓解市场压力。

Meanwhile, there is little to suggest any let-up from Chinese buyers, particularly if the yen¹⁴ continues to trade in its recent range. Demand for Merries is driven by China’s rising clamour for Japanese quality in all things worn, ingested or rubbed on to the skin. Another propellant has been the depreciation¹⁵ of the Japanese currency since 2013: Chinese tourists, along with parallel exporters, quickly spotted¹⁶ that it is cheaper to get a box of Merries in Shizuoka than in Shanghai.

与此同时，没有什么依据表明中国消费者有停止抢购纸尿裤的迹象，特别是在日元继续维持现有汇率水平的情况下。中国日益追捧日本在服装、食品以及护肤品等一切产品上的质量，这推动了中国对妙而舒的需求。另一个助推因素是自2013年开始的日元贬值：中国游客以及平行出口商迅速发现，在静冈县买一箱妙而舒比在上海买更便宜。

Occasionally, suburban¹⁷ Japanese supermarkets clock the fact that nappy export gangs are arriving in trucks and loading up with product bound for China. But attempts to calculate the scale of the parallel exports are tricky¹⁸. One guide is the surge of Merries’ share in Japan: up from 23 per cent in 2012 to 29 per cent last year.

位于日本郊区的超市偶尔会遇到这样的情况：纸尿裤的出口商开着卡车前来，再装满发往中国的商品。然而，想要算出平行出口的规模却成了棘手的问题。一种体现指标是妙而舒在日本所占市场份额的增长：从2012年的23%上升至去年的29%。

This was not grabbed from domestic competitors, say analysts¹⁹, but pure market expansion driven by parallel exports to China.

分析师称，这部分增长并不是从日本本土竞争者手里夺走的，而是由向中国的平行出口推动的纯粹市场扩张。