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石油市场的春天尚未来临
添加时间:2016-04-29 21:10:31 浏览次数: 作者:未知
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  • Spring is coming in the oil market. That was the message from the heads of the world’s largest trading houses at the FT’s commodities conference in Lausanne this week. The overwhelming consensus1 among these influential2 figures in the market is that crude is unlikely to return to the prices below $30 per barrel that it reached in January, and the trend is now upwards3.

    石油市场将迎来春天。这是全球各大交易商的掌门人在本周英国《金融时报》洛桑大宗商品会议上传递出的信息。这些在石油市场举足轻重的人物达成了压倒性的共识,声称油价不太可能回到今年1月触及的每桶30美元以下的水平,现在的趋势是上行。

    The markets do seem to support that interpretation4. After a 4 per cent jump on Tuesday, internationally traded Brent crude is almost 60 per cent above its low point in January.

    市场走势似乎确实支持这种解读。在周二大涨4%以后,在国际上交易的布伦特原油(Brent)价格较1月低点高出近60%。

    Even now, prices of about $44 per barrel are still below the level that most people in the oil industry would consider sustainable for the long term, so it is certainly plausible5 to think that the correction is now under way.

    即便现在,每桶约44美元的价格仍低于石油行业多数人认为长期可持续的水平,因此认为油价正在修正的看法貌似是合理的。

    Before oil producers start planning for happier days, though, there are a couple of more gloomy points that they need to consider.

    然而,在石油生产商开始为更美好的日子做打算时,它们需要思考两种较为悲观的观点。

    First, there are good reasons to think that oil prices could go down again in the short term. And second, even if the longer term trend is upwards, it will be hard to see a return to the prices of about $100 per barrel that seemed normal only two years ago.

    首先,我们有充足的理由认为油价短期内可能会再次走低。其次,即便较长期趋势是上涨,人们也很难看到油价重新回到每桶100美元左右的水平——两年前这个水平还显得很正常。

    One immediate6 spur to prices has been the prospect7 of the meeting of oil-producing countries, including Russia and most members of Opec, in Doha on Sunday. Several countries have been talking up the prospect that they will confirm the “freeze” in oil production that was provisionally agreed by Russia and Saudi Arabia in February, signalling to the market that the excess supply that has been driving down prices will soon disappear.

    目前刺激油价的一个直接因素是产油国本周日将在多哈召开会议,包括俄罗斯和石油输出国组织(Opec,简称欧佩克)的多数成员国。几个国家一直在谈论这种前景:他们将证实由俄罗斯和沙特在2月暂时约定的“冻结产量”计划,从而向市场表明,拉低油价的供应过剩局面将很快消失。

    But when Igor Sechin, chairman of the Russian state-controlled oil group Rosneft, told the FT conference that “everyone is expecting the successful outcome of our work” in Doha, he was indulging in wishful thinking.

    俄罗斯政府控股的俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)董事长伊戈尔•谢欣(Igor Sechin)在洛桑会议上表示,“所有人都期待我们(在多哈)的工作取得成功的结果。”他这样想未免太一厢情愿了。

    For some countries, including Russia, promising8 not to increase production will merely confirm what they were doing anyway. Others are showing less than resolute9 commitment to solidarity10 with other producers. Iraq is rapidly increasing production before the freeze, while Iran has said it will not join in any deal and plans to continue raising its output.

    对于包括俄罗斯在内的一些国家而言,承诺不增产只会证实他们现在正在做些什么。至于其他国家,它们与其他产油国抱团的决心算不得坚定。伊拉克正抢在冻产之前迅速增加产量;伊朗已表态不会加入任何协议,并计划继续提高产量。

    Regardless of what is said at Doha, the global oil market is likely to remain oversupplied11 for a while.

    不管多哈会议上说了什么,全球石油市场的供应过剩局面可能仍会持续一段时间。

    We have been here before, exactly a year ago. After the steep crash from the summer of 2014, oil rebounded12 from January to April 2015, and held on over $60 for some time. It looked then as though the worst had passed, too. But in July the oversupply13 started weighing on the market again, and another leg down in prices began.

    我们以前曾经历过这种情况,准确来说是一年前。在经过2014年夏季油价暴跌后,从2015年1月到4月,油价出现反弹,并在60美元上方维持了一段时间。当时也是这样,看上去好像最糟糕的时期已经过去。但去年7月,供应过剩开始再次令市场承压,油价再度下跌。

    Since then, the US shale14 industry has been battling to cut costs and raise productivity so it can survive at lower prices.

    此后,美国页岩油行业一直在努力降低成本和提高生产率,以求在低油价时期维持生存。

    The shale industry, which was largely responsible for the oil crash in the first place because of the production boom that began in 2010, has been mauled by lower prices, but its output has not collapsed15 as many analysts16 expected, and the principal producers are still in business. Even heavily indebted Chesapeake Energy, seen as one of the most vulnerable, this week managed to secure its future for a while longer with a renegotiated $4bn bank lending facility.

    美国页岩油行业始于2010年的生产热潮是最初油价暴跌的主要原因,而油价下跌反过来对该行业造成重创,但其产量并没有像很多分析人士预期的那样大幅下滑,主要生产商仍在运营。甚至连被视为最脆弱的生产商之一、负债累累的切萨皮克能源公司(Chesapeake Energy)本周也争取到按重新谈判的条件维持40亿美元的银行信贷额度,从而确保自己能够存活得更久一点。

    The US shale industry does not work with oil at $40, but at $50 and certainly at $60, companies say they can drill plenty more wells that would be financially viable17. Once oil starts returning to those levels, we can expect to see more drilling and more production from the US, in effect putting a ceiling on prices.

    如果油价在每桶40美元,美国页岩油行业无法实现盈利,但生产商们表示,如果油价在50美元,它们可以在财务可行的情况下钻探更多油井,如果油价在60美元的话就更没问题了。一旦油价向这些水平回归,我们预计将看到来自美国的更多钻探和生产活动,从而有效为油价构筑上限。

    Nothing lasts forever in commodity markets and it is quite possible that rising demand will eventually push crude back above $100 again. But while the worst may now be over for oil producers, those halcyon18 days of two years ago are likely for the foreseeable future to remain a golden memory.

    在大宗商品市场,没有什么是永恒的,需求上升很有可能最终将油价重新拉升至100美元以上。然而,尽管对于石油生产商而言,最糟糕的时期可能已经过去,但在可预见的将来,两年前的那种盛况仍将是一段美好回忆。

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    1 consensus [kənˈsensəs] epMzA   第7级
    n.(意见等的)一致,一致同意,共识
    参考例句:
    • Can we reach a consensus on this issue? 我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗?
    • What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting? 下午会议上一致的意见是什么?
    2 influential [ˌɪnfluˈenʃl] l7oxK   第7级
    adj.有影响的,有权势的
    参考例句:
    • He always tries to get in with the most influential people. 他总是试图巴结最有影响的人物。
    • He is a very influential man in the government. 他在政府中是个很有影响的人物。
    3 upwards [ˈʌpwədz] lj5wR   第8级
    adv.向上,在更高处...以上
    参考例句:
    • The trend of prices is still upwards. 物价的趋向是仍在上涨。
    • The smoke rose straight upwards. 烟一直向上升。
    4 interpretation [ɪnˌtɜ:prɪˈteɪʃn] P5jxQ   第7级
    n.解释,说明,描述;艺术处理
    参考例句:
    • His statement admits of one interpretation only. 他的话只有一种解释。
    • Analysis and interpretation is a very personal thing. 分析与说明是个很主观的事情。
    5 plausible [ˈplɔ:zəbl] hBCyy   第7级
    adj.似真实的,似乎有理的,似乎可信的
    参考例句:
    • His story sounded plausible. 他说的那番话似乎是真实的。
    • Her story sounded perfectly plausible. 她的说辞听起来言之有理。
    6 immediate [ɪˈmi:diət] aapxh   第7级
    adj.立即的;直接的,最接近的;紧靠的
    参考例句:
    • His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call. 他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
    • We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting. 我们主张立即召开这个会议。
    7 prospect [ˈprɒspekt] P01zn   第7级
    n.前景,前途;景色,视野
    参考例句:
    • This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect. 事态呈现出可喜的前景。
    • The prospect became more evident. 前景变得更加明朗了。
    8 promising [ˈprɒmɪsɪŋ] BkQzsk   第7级
    adj.有希望的,有前途的
    参考例句:
    • The results of the experiments are very promising. 实验的结果充满了希望。
    • We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers. 我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。
    9 resolute [ˈrezəlu:t] 2sCyu   第7级
    adj.坚决的,果敢的
    参考例句:
    • He was resolute in carrying out his plan. 他坚决地实行他的计划。
    • The Egyptians offered resolute resistance to the aggressors. 埃及人对侵略者作出坚决的反抗。
    10 solidarity [ˌsɒlɪˈdærəti] ww9wa   第7级
    n.团结;休戚相关
    参考例句:
    • They must preserve their solidarity. 他们必须维护他们的团结。
    • The solidarity among China's various nationalities is as firm as a rock. 中国各族人民之间的团结坚如磐石。
    11 oversupplied [ˈəuvəsəˈplaid] b8764c1d68a60331518673270c619d73   第12级
    v.过度供给( oversupply的过去式和过去分词 )
    参考例句:
    • Malnutrition includes undernutrition, in which nutrients are undersupplied, and overnutrition, in which nutrients are oversupplied. 营养不良包括营养低下,即营养素供给不足,和营养过剩,即营养素供给过度。 来自互联网
    12 rebounded [ˈri:ˈbaʊndid] 7c3c38746f183ba5eac1521bcd358376   第10级
    弹回( rebound的过去式和过去分词 ); 反弹; 产生反作用; 未能奏效
    参考例句:
    • The ball rebounded from the goalpost and Owen headed it in. 球从门柱弹回,欧文头球将球攻进。
    • The ball rebounded from his racket into the net. 球从他的球拍上弹回网中。
    13 oversupply ['əʊvəsə'plaɪ] zmIz1V   第12级
    n.供应过量;v.过度供给
    参考例句:
    • The market softened because of oversupply. 市场因供过于求而疲软。
    • Overexpansion of tea fields has led to oversupply. 茶园过度扩张,使得市场上逐渐供过于求。
    14 shale [ʃeɪl] cEvyj   第12级
    n.页岩,泥板岩
    参考例句:
    • We can extract oil from shale. 我们可以从页岩中提取石油。
    • Most of the rock in this mountain is shale. 这座山上大部分的岩石都是页岩。
    15 collapsed [kə'læpzd] cwWzSG   第7级
    adj.倒塌的
    参考例句:
    • Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
    • The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。
    16 analysts ['ænəlɪsts] 167ff30c5034ca70abe2d60a6e760448   第9级
    分析家,化验员( analyst的名词复数 )
    参考例句:
    • City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
    • I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。
    17 viable [ˈvaɪəbl] mi2wZ   第8级
    adj.可行的,切实可行的,能活下去的
    参考例句:
    • The scheme is economically viable. 这个计划从经济效益来看是可行的。
    • The economy of the country is not viable. 这个国家经济是难以维持的。
    18 halcyon [ˈhælsiən] 8efx7   第10级
    n.平静的,愉快的
    参考例句:
    • He yearned for the halcyon day sof his childhood. 他怀念儿时宁静幸福的日子。
    • He saw visions of a halcyon future. 他看到了将来的太平日子的幻境。

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