伦敦金融城的三种命运Three scenarios² for the City after Brexit

As a worker in the City of London for 20 years — first in a lowly role at the Bank of England, then in a mid-ranking position at the now defunct³ Association for Payment Services — Theresa May would not have imagined her current quandary⁴.

特里萨•梅(Theresa May)曾在伦敦金融城(the City of London)工作过二十年——最初为英格兰银行(Bank of England)的基层职员，之后在现已解散的支付清算服务协会(Association for Payment Services)担任中层职位——她或许从未想到过有一天自己会面临目前的困难局面。

Now prime minister, Mrs May faces the daunting⁵ prospect⁶ of negotiating Britain’s divorce from the EU while at the same time protecting the country’s key interests.

作为英国的新一任首相，梅肩负着令人生畏的艰巨使命：进行英国脱离欧盟的谈判，在此过程中保护英国的核心利益。

Close to the top of that list is the City’s role as a financial services hub and an anchor for the UK’s biggest industry, worth as much as 10 per cent of gross domestic product. Depending on how successful Mrs May is, the City could face three different futures⁷.

其中最重要的一个方面，是伦敦金融城作为金融服务中心以及英国第一大产业的支柱的地位——金融服务业在英国国内生产总值(GDP)中所占比重高达10%。伦敦金融城可能面临三种不同的未来图景，而这取决于梅的脱欧谈判有多成功。

Souped-up Singapore

未来图景一：加强版的新加坡

Brexit could offer an opportunity to maximise London as a less regulated offshore⁸ centre for renminbi trading, private banking⁹ or fintech, making use of the UK’s timezone advantage between Shanghai and New York.

英国脱欧或许能够打开机遇窗口，最大程度强化伦敦作为监管相对宽松的离岸金融中心的地位，发展人民币交易、私人银行或者金融科技等领域的业务，充分利用伦敦处在上海和纽约之间的时区优势。

If London loses its role as a gateway¹⁰ to European markets, then the City could seek to emulate¹¹ places such as Singapore — which is able to attract business from Asia’s powerhouses through light touch regulation and a favourable¹² tax regime. Despite its small size, the city state is ranked by Z/Yen, a consultancy, as the world’s leading financial centre behind London and New York.

如果伦敦失去了欧洲市场门户的地位，那么伦敦金融城或可尝试模仿新加坡等地区的模式——新加坡凭借柔性监管以及优惠的税收制度得以从亚洲强国吸引业务。虽然规模较小，这个一城之国仍被咨询机构Z/Yen评为全球主要金融中心之一，位列伦敦和纽约之后。

The UK could turn into a sort of souped-up Singapore “if the offshore part picks up the slack left by the departure of some European businesses,” said a managing director in government affairs at a large bank.

英国可以转型为某种加强版的新加坡，“如果离岸业务能够添补某些欧洲业务撤离英国所留下的空白的话，”一家大型银行负责政府事务的常务董事表示。

Britain already has a growing presence as a base for offshore renminbi trading and in April unseated Singapore as the second-largest clearing centre after Hong Kong for the currency.

英国作为离岸人民币交易中心的地位不断增强，今年4月还取代了新加坡，成为排在香港之后的第二大人民币清算中心。

The Swiss bankers’ association has proposed an “F4” alliance between Switzerland, London, Hong Kong and Singapore to pool ideas and resources to co-ordinate positions on global financial regulation and access to the EU market.

瑞士银行家协会建议，瑞士、伦敦、香港和新加坡可以组成“F4”联盟，以汇聚创意和资源，协调联盟各方在全球金融监管以及欧盟市场准入方面的立场。

Once out of the EU, the City could potentially backtrack on some of the bloc’s regulations that it most dislikes, such as curbs¹³ on bankers bonuses. But detractors point out that deregulating while also remaining “equivalent” so as to retain single market access would be tricky¹⁴.

一旦脱离了欧盟，伦敦金融城或许可以停止执行自己最不喜欢的部分欧盟监管法规，例如对银行家奖金的限制。但批评者们指出，在放松监管的同时维持使英国能够继续进入欧盟单一市场的“同等监管标准”将会颇为棘手。

Damian Kimmelman, co-founder and chief executive of tech company DueDil, said Brexit provides a great opportunity to galvanise London’s fintech industry to redesign its entire infrastructure¹⁵ using technologies such as blockchain and confirm the UK “as the fintech centre of the world”.

科技公司DueDil的联合创始人及首席执行官达米安•基梅尔曼(Damian Kimmelman)表示，英国脱欧为推动伦敦金融科技行业的发展提供了巨大机遇，这个行业可以借此契机运用区块链等技术重新设计整个基础架构，以强化英国作为“世界金融科技中心”的地位。

Drastic downscaling

未来图景二：产业急剧萎缩

The biggest blow to the City would be the loss of the crucial “passports” banks and other financial institutions use to sell services and raise funds in other EU markets from London.

伦敦金融城可能遭遇的最大打击是，银行以及其他金融机构可能会失去在伦敦向其他欧盟市场提供服务以及募集资金所需的关键“通行证”。

Cities such as Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin are already rolling out the red carpet for banks, and further afield Singapore New York and Dubai could also go in for the kill.

巴黎、法兰克福、都柏林等城市都已经铺好了红毯，准备迎接从伦敦迁来的银行，距离更远的新加坡、纽约、迪拜等城市也可能参与角逐。

A Treasury¹⁶ analysis this year suggested up to 285,000 financial sector¹⁷ jobs could be at risk after a Leave vote. The worry is that when banks leave London, the professional services firms who work with them would follow over time.

英国财政部今年的一项分析显示，脱欧公投最多可能导致英国金融行业损失28.5万个就业岗位。令人担忧的是，如果银行撤出伦敦，与银行合作的专业服务公司可能也会逐渐跟随银行离开。

This would be compounded by a dearth¹⁸ of foreign direct investment and a struggling UK economy.

这种状况可能会因外国直接投资的匮乏以及英国经济形势的艰难而加剧。

“It is bleak,” said one bank boss: “We are going into recession, no question about it. Five years from now the City might find a way to grow again but it will be a long way behind where it could have been.”

一位银行高管表示：“前景暗淡，我们将陷入衰退，这是毫无疑问的。五年后伦敦金融城或许会找到一条复兴之路，但将远远不如本来可以达到的水平。”

A campaign on immigration — one of the most sensitive issues in last month’s EU referendum — could also make the position of the City’s foreign workers vulnerable. Nearly 11 per cent of the City’s 360,000 workers come from elsewhere in the EU, according to the latest census¹⁹.

有关移民的政治运动——移民是6月脱欧公投中最为敏感的话题之一——可能导致伦敦金融城中外国员工的地位更弱。最新人口调查显示，在伦敦金融城的36万名员工中，有近11%来自欧盟其他成员国。

And London’s location as home to the world’s principal place for trading the euro — a $2tn a day market — may also come under further pressure after previous EU attempts to shift more of the business to the eurozone.

伦敦作为全球欧元交易主要市场所在地的地位——该市场目前每日交易规模高达2万亿美元——可能会因为之前欧盟将更多此类业务转移至欧元区的尝试而受到更大的压力。

Other countries are closely watching the City’s ties to the EU — notably²⁰ China, whose banks recently picked London as their European financial base of choice.

其他国家也在密切关注伦敦金融城与欧盟的关系，特别是中国，中资银行不久前选择了伦敦作为他们在欧洲开展金融业务的大本营。

Mark Boleat, policy chairman at the City of London Corporation, said Brexit was “not helpful to our relations with China”.

伦敦金融城政策与资源委员会主席包墨凯(Mark Boleat)表示，英国脱欧“对于我们与中国的关系没有帮助”。

Muted London

未来图景三：伦敦重要性减弱

Under a scenario¹ where the UK is able to fudge some sort of access to the single market, London could carry on almost as before.

在英国能够创造出进入欧盟单一市场的某种路径的情况下，伦敦可以保持几乎和以前一样的状态。

The key would be EU rules known as Mifid 2, which allow other nations with “equivalent” regulatory standards to operate right across the single market in sectors²¹ such as trading.

其中的关键在于“欧盟金融工具市场法规II”(Mifid 2)，该规则允许其他具有“同等”监管标准的国家在交易等领域进入欧盟全境开展业务。

Banks would retain a large core presence in London. The question would be where they put new hires, rather than where they move existing employees.

银行将把大量核心业务继续留在伦敦。问题将变成银行把招募新员工的名额放在哪里，而不是将现有的员工迁移到哪里。

Lord Levene, who chairs Tikehau, a French investment boutique that recently relocated to London, said: “People want to live and work in London. What leaves will be pretty much on the margins²².”

法国精品投行Tikehau的董事会主席列文勋爵(Lord Levene)表示：“人们希望在伦敦工作和生活。其余的大抵无关紧要。”Tikehau不久前迁至伦敦。

Similarly, asset managers may well keep their headquarters in London. But many already have Luxembourg and Dublin domiciled funds and could shift more business to those centres and locate euro-denominated business inside the EU.

同样，资产管理公司很可能也会将总部继续留在伦敦。但其中很多已经拥有了设在卢森堡以及都柏林的基金，有能力将更多的业务转移至这些金融中心，并将以欧元计值的业务安排在欧盟境内。

Euro trading could also stay in London. Roger Liddell, the former chief executive of LCH.Clearnet, said: “If you start to divide up portfolios²³ by currency you create a huge amount of inefficiency²⁴ and a greater degree of risk.”

欧元交易业务也可以继续留在伦敦。伦敦清算所(LCH.Clearnet)前首席执行官罗杰•里德尔(Roger Liddell)表示：“如果将资产组合按照币种分割开来，将会导致大量的低效率操作以及更大的风险。”

Karen Briggs, head of Brexit at professional services firm KPMG, added: “There are a number of aspects that take us away from the doomsday post-Brexit scenario: the UK’s infrastructure, its trusted legal system and its strong resource and talent pool . . . It is still attractive to work in London and the UK.”

专业金融服务公司毕马威(KPMG)负责英国脱欧业务的主管凯伦•布里格斯(Karen Briggs)补充称：“有多个方面的因素使我们可以远离英国脱欧以后的末日图景：英国的基础设施、备受信赖的司法系统以及强大的资源和人才储备……在伦敦和在英国工作仍然具有很强的吸引力。”