Shane Smith, the co-founder and chief executive of Vice¹, the online news producer shaking up its old-school rivals, has predicted a “bloodbath” among the world’s biggest media companies as they fight for a future in an industry still coming to terms with digital disruption.

Vice联合创始人兼首席执行官沙恩•史密斯(Shane Smith)预言，在一个仍在艰难适应数字颠覆的行业里为未来而战的全球大型媒体公司，将经历一轮“血洗”。Vice是一家互联网新闻制作商，正在搅动传统新闻机构——它的竞争对手们。

The 46-year-old former punk rocker turned media entrepreneur was speaking before he was set to deliver the prestigious² McTaggart Lecture at the Edinburgh International TV Festival last night.

现年46岁的史密斯曾是名朋克摇滚歌手，后来转行在媒体行业创业。昨晚他在爱丁堡国际电视节上发表“麦克塔格特”演讲(McTaggart Lecture，该演讲在全世界享有盛名)，他在演讲前发表了上述言论。

Mr Smith said that companies such as Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox, Viacom and Time Warner would look to consolidate³ as they face dwindling⁴ audiences and an increasingly disengaged younger generation of TV viewers.

史密斯表示，面临观众不断减少，以及年轻一代电视观众日益疏离，鲁珀特•默多克(Rupert Murdoch)的21世纪福克斯(21st Century Fox)以及维亚康姆(Viacom)和时代华纳(Time Warner)等公司将寻求整合。

“You’ve already seen huge consolidation⁵ this year, next year will be a bloodbath,” Mr Smith said ahead of his speech.

史密斯在演讲前表示：“今年已经出现了大规模整合，明年将出现一场‘血洗’。

“Fox has already made a bid for Time Warner, Apple has made a bid for Time Warner and also wants to buy Netflix.

福克斯已向时代华纳发出过一次收购要约，苹果(Apple)已提出想收购时代华纳，此外还打算收购Netflix。

If Viacom continues its Shakespearean implosion⁶ — which is a glory for me to watch — we will have everyone snapping off bits.

如果维亚康姆继续其戏剧化的内部崩塌——我乐于看到这一幕——它会彻底分崩离析。

“In the next six months everyone is going to try and buy everyone else and we will be sitting there laughing our heads off.”

“接下来这半年，每家公司都会试图收购别家公司，而我们将坐在那儿大笑着看好戏。”

Mr Smith’s remarks come as the industry braces⁷ itself for further upheaval⁸.

史密斯发表这番言论之际，该行业正准备迎来进一步动荡。

Univision’s announcement that it was buying Gawker Media last week was just the latest of a string of recent deals.

Univision上周宣布将要购买Gawker Media，这是近期一连串交易中的最新一笔。

In July Verizon bought Yahoo for $4.8bn, following its purchase of AOL for $4.4bn last year, while Comcast’s NBCUniversal recently acquired stakes in Vox Media and BuzzFeed.

继去年以44亿美元收购了美国在线(AOL)之后，Verizon在今年7月以48亿美元收购了雅虎(Yahoo)；而康卡斯特(Comcast)的NBC环球(NBC Universal)最近入股了Vox Media和BuzzFeed。

The moves come as audiences for US cable television continue to fall, prompting a dip in crucial advertising⁹ revenues as viewers shift online to digital services such as Netflix or YouTube.

在观众向Netflix和YouTube等线上数字服务转移之际，美国有线电视观众持续减少，导致关键的广告收入减少。

Consultants¹⁰ PwC forecast that US digital advertising revenues will overtake TV revenues for the first time next year.

咨询公司普华永道(PwC)预测，美国数字广告营收明年将首次超过电视收入。

Having risen to prominence¹¹ five years ago when it pushed into online video, Vice — which has a presence in 55 countries — is now a potential target for traditional media companies as they seek to reach its younger audiences.

Vice在5年前进军在线视频业务，成为一家著名企业；它在55个国家开设了业务。眼下，在传统媒体公司寻求触及年轻观众之际，Vice成了它们的潜在目标。

Last December Walt Disney spent $400m doubling its stake in Vice to about 10 per cent, a deal that valued the Brooklyn-based company at more than $4bn. Two years earlier Fox bought a 5 per cent stake for $70m.

去年12月华特迪士尼(Walt Disney)斥资4亿美元，将自己在Vice的持股比例增加了一倍、至10%左右，这笔交易对这家总部位于纽约布鲁克林的公司的估值为逾40亿美元。两年前福克斯以7000万美元购买了Vice 5%的股份。

Mr Smith was expected to tell the audience in Edinburgh last night: “There is a revolution going on in media. It’s scary, and it’s fast, and it’s going to be ugly . . . Only the most nimble and dynamic companies will survive.”

史密斯昨晚在爱丁堡告诉观众：“媒体正在经历一场革命。这场革命非常可怕，速度极快，而且将变得很难看……只有那些最灵活、最有活力的企业会生存下来。”