This year’s commodities slouch is playing catch up.

今年以来表现一直低迷的大宗商品正出现起色。

Copper¹ has suddenly burst into life, surging 14 per cent this month to above $5,500 a tonne as investors² pick apart widely held assumptions about the underlying³ dynamic for a metal used in everything from wiring to power grids⁴.

本月，由于投资者不再相信之前关于铜的潜在走势的普遍假设，铜突然迸发活力，飙升14%至每吨5500美元上方。铜被用于从线缆到电网的极为广泛的用途。

The concern over a wall of supply from projects commissioned in the aftermath of the financial crisis is fading just as more optimistic views on demand in China and the US emerge.

对金融危机后上马项目的巨大供应的担忧正在消退，人们开始看好中美的需求。

Even Goldman Sachs — the most consistently negative voice on copper over the past couple of years — has turned more positive, conceding the 23m-tonne-a-year market will be broadly balanced this year.

甚至过去两年内对铜发表最坚定负面看法的高盛(Goldman Sachs)也变得更为乐观，承认这个每年2300万吨的市场今年将大致达到平衡。

Others are more bullish, forecasting deficits⁵ of up to 400,000 tonnes in 2017 if Chinese demand holds up.

还有人则更为乐观，预计如果中国需求保持坚挺的话，2017年供应缺口高达40万吨。

If prices can stay above $5,500, or march higher, that will be a huge boost to miners such as Anglo American, Glencore and Freeport-McMoRan, helping⁶ them generate extra cash to pay down debts and eventually restart dividend⁷ payments.

如果铜价能够保持在5500美元上方或者更高，会对英美资源集团(Anglo American)、嘉能可(Glencore)和自由港迈克墨伦(Freeport-McMoRan)等矿业公司产生极大提振，帮助它们产生额外现金偿还债务，并最终重启分红。

“The pick-up in Chinese demand has left the market tighter than we previously⁸ expected,” Goldman said.

高盛表示：“中国需求上升让市场供应比我们早先预期的更为紧张。”

Until this month copper had been a laggard⁹, climbing only 5 per cent compared with a 55 per cent surge for zinc¹⁰ and 17 per cent rise for aluminium¹¹. While many have attempted to pin copper’s recent bounce on the hazy¹² infrastructure¹³ plans of US president-elect Donald Trump¹⁴, sentiment had already started to shift before the US elections.

就在本月前，铜的表现还落后于其他金属，仅仅上涨了5%，而锌和铝分别上涨了55%和17%。尽管许多人试图将铜最近的反弹归因于美国当选总统唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)提出的模糊的基础设施计划，但在美国大选前，市场情绪已经开始转变。

One reason is China, where demand has been running at a much faster pace than expected this year, thanks to Beijing, which has been stimulating¹⁵ the economy with credit.

一个原因是中国——由于中国政府一直通过信贷刺激经济，中国今年的需求增长速度远超预期。

Another concerns supply. During the first half of the year there were few problems at major deposits. That changed abruptly¹⁶ during the third quarter, when several of the world’s biggest copper miners including BHP Billiton and Freeport reported weak results and cut production guidance for 2017.

另一个原因是供应方面的担忧。在今年上半年，主要矿山几乎没什么问题。但在第三季度情况突然发生变化，当时包括必和必拓(BHP Billiton)和自由港在内的多个全球最大的铜矿发布了疲弱的业绩报告，并削减了2017年的产量指引。

Copper is a difficult commodity to produce, and for that reason, analysts¹⁷ normally price in a 4 to 5 per cent loss of mining output each year due to disruptions. Until September, outages had run well below that level, amplifying¹⁸ angst about a glut¹⁹ of supply.

铜是一种很难生产的大宗商品，因此分析师通常会考虑每年因生产中断造成4%-5%的产量损失。截至今年9月前，产量损失远低于这一预计水平，加剧了对供大于求的担忧。

That has now changed, and there are an increasing number of signals indicating a tightening²⁰ copper market. Inventories²¹ of refined metal held in London Metal Exchange warehouses²² have fallen 36 per cent since the end of September, and Shanghai Futures²³ Exchange copper stocks have also come down.

现在这种情况有所改变，越来越多的迹象显示铜市场供应趋紧。伦敦金属交易所(LME)的精炼铜库存自9月底以来下降36%，上海期货交易所(Shanghai Futures Exchange)的铜库存也下降了。

There has also been a surprise drop in the fees charged by smelters and refiners to process dry feedstock, or copper concentrate as it is known, into anodes and eventually cathodes.

冶炼商和精炼商将干原料（即铜精矿）加工为阳极铜、以及最终加工为阴极铜收取的费用也令人意外地出现了下降。

When treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) fall, it is a sign material is insufficient²⁴ in this part of the copper supply chain.

当铜精矿的粗炼和精炼费用(TC/RC)下降的时候，就表明在铜供应链这个部分的原料不足。

In recent years the annual negotiations²⁵ between Freeport and China’s Jiangxi Copper have served as a benchmark for the rest of the market. Most analysts were expecting fees to rise this year, but they actually fell with the two sides agreeing terms of $92.50 per tonne and 9.25 cents per pound.

在最近几年，自由港与中国江西铜业(Jiangxi Copper)的年度谈判已成为市场其他从业者的基准。大多数分析师之前预计今年费用将会上涨，但价格实际上下降了，双方同意的价格为粗炼费每吨92.50美元和精炼费每磅9.25美分。

“The concentrate market is not as oversupplied²⁶ as people think,” says one senior copper trader.

一位高级铜交易员表示：“铜精矿市场并非像人们认为的那样供应过剩。”

For traders and mining executives, falling stocks and TC/RCs jar with the narrative²⁷ of oversupply²⁸ peddled²⁹ by some of the big investment banks and metals consultancies.

对交易员和矿业高管来说，库存和粗炼及精炼费用下降，与一些大型投行和金属咨询公司宣扬的供应过剩说法不符。

They say the peak of copper mine supply growth is behind the industry. One executive told the Financial Times he expected increases from eight major mines of 290,000 tonnes to be offset³⁰ by declines of 400,000 next year.

他们说，铜矿供应增长的顶峰还未到来。一位高管向英国《金融时报》表示，他预计8家主要矿商29万吨的产量增长将被明年40万吨的产量下降抵消。

While output will pick up in 2018 and 2019, there are few big projects poised³¹ to come on stream. This is because miners have cut spending on exploration and new projects during the five-year downturn in commodity markets.

尽管产量将在2018年和2019年回升，但未来很少有大型项目准备投产。这是因为矿商在大宗商品市场5年低迷期间削减了勘探和新项目上的支出。

On the demand side, the impact on copper from the Trump White House is not yet clear. Even if there is a big infrastructure-led stimulus³² push, it is unlikely to materialise in the physical copper market until 2018, although investors may start taking positions before then.

在需求方面，特朗普入主白宫对铜的影响还不明朗。即便有基础设施主导的大型刺激方案，在2018年前也不太可能影响到现货铜市场，尽管投资者可能在此之前开始建立头寸。

Analysts at UBS estimate a 10 per cent lift in US demand for copper would see its global share rise to 9 per cent, equating³³ to 180,000 tonnes per annum of additional demand. That is only equivalent to a 1.5 per cent move in China.

瑞银(UBS)分析师估计，美国对铜的需求上升10%将会让其在全球需求中的份额升至9%，相当于每年额外增加需求18万吨。这只是相当于中国需求上升1.5%。

Ultimately it will be Chinese demand that will be the biggest influence on the copper price. And here there are reasons for optimism. At the Asia Copper Week conference in Shanghai earlier this month, the mood among delegates was better than it had been for several years, according to analysts.

最终，中国需求将是铜价的最大影响因素。这方面人们有理由乐观。分析师们表示，在本月早些时候于上海召开的“亚洲铜业周”(Asia Copper Week)会议上，参会代表们的情绪比过去几年乐观。

“Overall sentiment was solid, with most Chinese players . . . expecting good demand for next year (3-5 per cent) on sustained government stimulus policies,” said Macquarie analysts.

麦格理(Macquarie)分析师表示：“整体情绪稳固，大多数中国从业者……预计在持续的政府刺激政策下，明年需求强劲（增长3%-5%）。”