今年全球发债6.6万亿美元创纪录

Global debt sales reached a record this year, led by companies gorging¹ on cheap borrowing costs that are now threatened by Donald Trump²’s pledge to fire up the US economy.

今年全球债务发售达到了创纪录的水平，主要发债方是那些积极利用廉价借债成本的公司——如今举债成本受到了唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)承诺刺激美国经济增长的威胁。

The bond rally that dominated the first half of the year helped entice³ borrowers that issued debt via banks to take on just over $6.6tn, according to data provider Dealogic, breaking the previous annual record set in 2006.

数据提供商Dealogic的数据显示，主导上半年的债券大涨帮助吸引了那些通过银行发行债务的借款方背上略高于6.6万亿美元的债务，打破了2006年创下的上一个年度纪录。

Companies accounted for more than half of the $6.62tn of debt issued, underlining the extent to which negative interest rate policies adopted by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, as well as a cautious Federal Reserve, encouraged the corporate⁴ world to increase its leverage⁵.

公司占到了6.62万亿美元发债总额的一半以上，凸显了欧洲央行(ECB)和日本央行(BoJ)所采取的负利率政策、以及谨慎的美联储(Fed)在多大程度上鼓励了公司提升杠杆。

Corporate bond sales climbed 8 per cent year on year to $3.6tn, led by blockbuster $10bn-plus deals to finance large mergers⁶ and acquisitions.

公司债券销售额同比增长8%，达3.6万亿美元，领头的是那些为大规模并购筹资而进行的100亿美元以上的巨额交易。

The remaining debt included sovereign bonds sold through bank syndication, US and international agencies, mortgage-backed securities and covered bonds. The figures exclude sovereign debt sold at regular auction⁷.

其余债务包括通过银团、美国和国际机构发售的主权债券、抵押贷款支持证券和担保债券。这些数字不包括在定期拍卖中售出的主权债务。

While US government bond yields touched their low in July, the prospect⁸ of Mr Trump cutting taxes and injecting fiscal⁹ stimulus¹⁰ has accelerated a move higher in interest rates that some investors¹¹ fear will make debt burdens harder to bear in 2017.

虽然美国政府债券收益率在7月触及低点，但特朗普削减税收和实施财政刺激的前景已加速了利率的上升，一些投资者担心这将使2017年的债务负担更难承受。

After touching a record low of 1.32 per cent in July, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury¹² — an important benchmark for corporate borrowing costs — has surged more than a percentage point to 2.57 per cent.

在7月份跌至创纪录的1.32%之后，10年期美国国债的收益率——企业借款成本的一个重要基准——已上升逾一个百分点，至2.57%。

“The low cost of financing with record-low interest rates simply made building up leverage tempting,” said Scott Mather, chief investment officer for core fixed¹³ income at Pimco. “This happens every economic cycle, but what makes this one special is the added incentive¹⁴ to issue debt at very low interest rates. It sows the seeds of the next downturn or the next credit event.”

“创纪录低利率下的低成本融资使提升杠杆变得诱人，”太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)负责核心固定收益业务的首席投资官斯格特.马瑟(Scott Mather)说。“每个经济周期都会发生这种情况，但这次的特别之处在于以极低利率发债的额外激励。它播下了下一轮低迷或下一起信用事件的种子。”

Eight of the 10 largest bond sales underwritten by banks this year were from companies, including offerings from brewer¹⁵ Anheuser-Busch InBev, PC manufacturer Dell and Microsoft.

在今年银行承销的10大债券发售案中，有8起的发行方是公司，包括啤酒酿造商百威英博(Anheuser-Busch InBev)、PC制造商戴尔(Dell)，以及微软(Microsoft)。

Corporates “took advantage of low rates,” said Monica Erickson, portfolio¹⁶ manager with DoubleLine Capital. “The cost of capital is low so it makes sense for them to come to market.”

公司“利用了低利率”，DoubleLine Capital的投资组合经理莫妮卡.埃里克森(Monica Erickson)说。“资本成本低，所以他们发债是有道理的。”

With the universe of negative-yielding bonds touching almost $14tn at one point, money managers were willing to stomach lower returns. The year’s debt sales were buoyed¹⁷ by China and Japan-based issuers, up 23 and 30 per cent respectively, from a year earlier.

随着负收益债券总量在某一时点上接近14万亿美元，投资经理们愿意忍受更低回报率。今年的债务销售得到中国和日本发行方的推动，两者同比增幅分别为23%和30%。

Investors say 2016 is likely to prove a high-water mark for debt issuance in this cycle, with the Fed forecast to raise rates further and question marks growing over the future of bond-buying programmes from the BoJ and the ECB.

投资者表示，2016年可能是当前周期债务发行的巅峰，因为美联储预测未来会进一步加息，而且日本央行和欧洲央行债券购买计划的未来引发越来越大的疑问。