China’s central bank will change the way it guides the renminbi exchange rate, a move designed to enhance the government’s ability to prevent renminbi depreciation¹ at a time when authorities are still concerned about capital flight.

中国央行将改变其引导人民币汇率的方式，此举旨在提高政府阻止人民币贬值的能力。目前中国官方仍然担忧资本外逃。

The People’s Bank of China permits the US dollar’s value against the renminbi to fluctuate by 2 per cent above or below a so-called “central parity² rate” published each morning, also known as the midpoint or fixing. The midpoint is ostensibly formulated⁴ by compiling quotes from a group of dealer⁵ banks, but the price is understood to be largely determined⁶ by the central bank.

中国人民银行(PBoC)目前允许人民币兑美元汇率在每天早上公布的所谓“中间价”上下浮动2%。这一中间价理论上是通过汇集一组做市商银行的报价确定的，但据信在很大程度上由中国央行决定。

Under the revised formula announced on Friday, dealers⁷ will incorporate a “counter-cyclical adjustment factor” in their quotes, according to a statement on the website of the China Foreign Exchange Trading System, an industry body controlled by the PBoC.

由中国央行控制的行业机构——中国外汇交易中心(China Foreign Exchange Trading System)在官网发表声明称，根据周五宣布的修订后公式，中间价报价银行将在其报价中纳入“逆周期调节因子”。

“It’s easy for the market to be influenced by irrational⁸ expectations and spurred by inertia⁹?.?.?.?magnifying the risk of over-correction of the market exchange rate,” CFETS said in the statement. “The main motivation is to hedge appropriately against the pro-cyclical fluctuation¹¹ in market sentiment and alleviate¹² the potential for ‘herd¹³ behaviour’ in the foreign exchange market.”

“当前我国外汇市场……容易受到非理性预期的惯性驱使……增大市场汇率超调的风险，”中国外汇交易中心在声明中表示。“主要目的是适度对冲市场情绪的顺周期波动，缓解外汇市场可能存在的‘羊群效应’。”

In August 2015, the PBoC announced a change to the way it would formulate³ the midpoint, saying that the fixing would henceforth track on the previous day’s closing price in the spot market. In December 2015, it modified the formula, declaring that midpoint would also reflect changes in the renminbi’s value against a broad basket of global currencies.

2015年8月，中国央行宣布将调整中间价形成机制，称其将开始追踪前一日现货市场的收盘价。2015年12月，央行修改了公式，宣布人民币中间价还将反映人民币兑一篮子全球货币汇率的变动。

CFETS noted¹⁴ on Friday that the US dollar has depreciated¹⁵ substantially in recent months, causing both variables in the fixing formula to push the midpoint weaker. The new counter-cyclical variable will prevent excessive one-way movement in such periods, the statement said.

中国外汇交易中心周五指出，美元在最近几个月大幅贬值，导致中间价计算公式中的两个变量都在压低中间价。声明称，新的逆周期调节因子将在这类时期阻止过分单向变动。

In recent weeks, analysts¹⁶ had observed that the daily midpoint had begun to diverge¹⁷ from where their models predicted it should be based on the PBoC’s previously¹⁸ stated methodology.

近几周来，分析人士已经观察到，人民币每日中间价已经开始偏离他们的模型预测，而模型是基于中国央行之前说明的方法。

“In general, this is designed to prepare some room to manoeuvre¹⁹ for future policy and a policy tool,” said Zhang Yu, head of overseas research at Minsheng Securities in Beijing.

“总体而言，这是为了给未来的政策和政策工具准备一些空间，”民生证券(Minsheng Securities)在北京的海外研究部门负责人张瑜表示。

The renminbi weakened 6.5 per cent against the US dollar last year, its worst year ever, amid an unprecedented²⁰ wave of capital outflows. But late last year, China tightened²¹ capital controls to curb²² downward pressure on the currency. That effort has largely succeeded, with the renminbi appreciating 1.2 per cent in 2017.

人民币兑美元汇率去年下跌6.5%，是史上跌幅最大的一年，其背景是一股前所未有的资本外流浪潮。但去年末，中国收紧资本管制以遏制人民币下行压力。这一努力基本上取得了成功，2017年以来人民币升值了1.2%。

China’s foreign exchange reserves have also risen for three straight months, a sign that renminbi stability is not primarily due to the PBoC intervening in the market to prop¹⁰ up the currency.

中国的外汇储备也已连续三个月上升，这个迹象表明，人民币稳定的主要原因并不是中国央行干预汇市以支撑其币值。

It’s unclear if the change will have a bearing on the market. Currency traders have said that the influence of the daily fix has significantly decreased since the August 2015 policy change.

目前尚不清楚中间价形成机制的变化会不会对市场产生影响。外汇交易员表示，自2015年8月的政策变化以来，每日中间价的影响力已显著降低。

Rather than the fix, it is active PBoC intervention²³ in the market through buying and selling dollars that most strongly influences the renminbi exchange rate. The PBoC sold a net $280bn last year but activity has fallen to virtually zero in recent months, according to FT estimates based on official data.

目前对人民币汇率产生最强烈影响的，不是中间价，而是中国央行通过买入和卖出美元来积极干预汇市。英国《金融时报》根据官方数据作出的估算显示，中国央行去年净出售2800亿美元，但汇市干预活动在近几个月已降低至几乎为零。