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时尚双语:计算你的“乐观率”
添加时间:2018-06-27 09:31:30 浏览次数: 作者:未知
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  • In his famous book Learned Optimism, Martin Seligman points out how our present use of language can be a fairly accurate predictor of future success. Seligman explains how he was able to predict outcomes of sporting events with reasonable accuracy by comparing the language used by the coaches and players in interviews before the event. Basically what he did was count all the positive words and the negative words in published pre-game quotes from the players and coaches, and then he calculated the ratio of positive words to negative. The team with the higher ratio was the one picked to win. There is some subjectivity1 in deciding whether a word is positive, negative, or neutral, but if you try it yourself, I think you’ll find that most of the time it’s fairly easy to classify words. Seligman also explains using a similar process to predict the winners of political elections.

    Try this for yourself. Here’s a sentence I grabbed from Yahoo News on Feb 23:

    Scientists fear the avian flu that has killed 46 people in Asia could be the strain that will cause the next global pandemic but said more evidence is needed about how infectious it is in humans.

    How many positive and negative words do you count? I count zero positive and four negative (fear, killed, pandemic, infectious). So this sentence has a ratio of 0/4 = 0.

    Let’s try the same process on all of the headlines from Yahoo News (I’m using the Feb 23 version). I count 6 positive words (eases, adds, new, found, right, wealthy) and 15 negative words (denounce, fight, die, soak, death, somber2, slain3, fears, concerns, dismissed, defiant4, avoids, risk, pandemic, handouts) for an overall ratio of 6/15 = 0.4.

    My picks are subjective5 of course, so yours may be different, but try it for yourself on any news site. If you find one with a ratio above 1.0, please tell me about it!

    Try this on yourself as well. Go over some text you wrote recently — emails, forums6 posts, whatever. What’s your ratio of positive/negative words? Seligman would argue that this is a powerful predictor of future success. Some personal development experts believe that by intentionally7 choosing more optimistic words in the language you use, you’ll start to become more optimistic in your thinking, which will in turn lead to better results. Anthony Robbins has a whole chapter about it in one of his books; he refers to it as “transformational vocabulary.”

    Have some fun and try this on your friends and co-workers. Grab something they wrote, and compute8 their ratio. Is their language predominantly optimistic (>1.0) or pessimistic (<1.0)? Who has the highest score? The lowest score? Any interesting patterns?

    What kind of boss do you work for? What about your company’s brochures? If you run your own business how’s your marketing9 material, your web site, your business plan? Are you projecting confidence or self-doubt to your customers? What about your journal entries? Your to do list?

    You’ll often see a pattern where like attracts like. Pessimistic news sources will attract pessimistic readers, partly because those are the best targets for advertising10 — negative people are more likely to believe that buying products will change their emotional state. A pessimistic company will attract and breed pessimistic employees — the high-energy positive people will go where their enthusiasm is welcome. So there’s a good chance you’ll see similar ratios to your own when you look around your environment.

    马丁·赛里格曼在他那本著名的《习得的乐观》中指出,我们目前使用语言的方式可以相当准确地预测未来能否成功。赛里格曼解释了他是如何通过比较教练和队员在赛前接受采访时使用的词语来较为准确地预测比赛结果的。基本上,他所做的就是根据赛前队员和教练发布的谈话,算出其中所使用的积极和消极词汇的数量,然后用积极词数比上消极词数得出乐观率。乐观率较高的那个队将会赢得比赛。在确定一个词是积极、消极还是中性时具有少许主观性,但如果你自己试试,我想你也会发现,大多数时候,给词汇分类还是比较容易的。赛里格曼也说明了如何用相似的方法来预测政治选举中的胜出者。

    你来做下面这个试验。这是我从2005年2月23日的雅虎新闻上摘抄的一句话:

    “科学家们担心,已经导致亚洲46人死亡的禽流感是否会成为下一次全球瘟疫的源头,但该病毒对人类的传染性还需更多的证据来证实。”

    你数出了多少个积极词和消极词?我数出了0个积极词,4个消极词(担心,死亡,瘟疫,传染性)。所以这句话的乐观率是0/4=0。

    我们试试用同样的方法来计算所有雅虎新闻上的标题(我用的是2005年2月23日的版本)。我数出了6个积极词(安定、增加、新颖、发现、正确、财富)和 15个消极词(谴责、战争、死亡、浸泡、屠杀、忧郁、杀害、恐惧、担忧、撤职、挑衅、逃避、风险、瘟疫、救济),因此乐观率是6/15=0.4。

    我的摘抄当然是主观的,所以你的结果可能有所不同,但你可以到任何的新闻网站去试验一下。如果你发现了乐观率超过1.0的的新闻网站,可别忘了告诉我!

    同样,也做做下述的试验。浏览一下你最近写的东西——电子邮件、论坛的帖子,随便什么。你词汇的乐观率是多少?赛里格曼声称这是预测未来能否成功的有力证据。某些个人发展专家确信,在言辞中有意选择积极的词汇,能让你的思想变得更加乐观,最终带来更好的成果。安东尼·罗宾斯在他的一本书中有整整一章是专门阐述这一点的;他把这称之为“转变的词汇表”。

    找点乐子,在你的朋友和同事身上试试。随便找些他们写的东西,计算其乐观率。他们的语言是乐观主义(>1.0)还是悲观主义(<1.0)的?谁的乐观率最高?谁的乐观率最低?发现了什么有趣的模式吗?

    你在为怎样的老板工作?你公司的手册写得怎么样?如果你经营自己的事业,你的营销资料、网站、商业计划又如何?你向你的客户表达了自信还是自我怀疑?你的日志呢?你的任务列表呢?

    你常会看到一种物以类聚的模式。悲观的新闻常吸引悲观的读者,部分是因为这类人通常是广告的最佳目标——消极的人更可能会相信,通过购买产品可以改变他们的情绪状态。一个悲观的公司会滋生和引来悲观的雇员——那些精力充沛、积极向上的人会到那些欢迎他们的热情的地方去。因此,当你观察自身周边环境的乐观率时,基本上也就能了解你自己的乐观率了。

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    1 subjectivity [ˌsʌbdʒek'tɪvətɪ] NtfwP   第7级
    n.主观性(主观主义)
    参考例句:
    • In studying a problem,we must shun subjectivity.研究问题,忌带主观性。
    • 'Cause there's a certain amount of subjectivity involved in recreating a face.因为在重建面部的过程中融入了太多的主观因素?
    2 somber ['sɒmbə] dFmz7   第10级
    adj.昏暗的,阴天的,阴森的,忧郁的
    参考例句:
    • He had a somber expression on his face. 他面容忧郁。
    • His coat was a somber brown. 他的衣服是暗棕色的。
    3 slain [sleɪn] slain   第10级
    杀死,宰杀,杀戮( slay的过去分词 ); (slay的过去分词)
    参考例句:
    • The soldiers slain in the battle were burried that night. 在那天夜晚埋葬了在战斗中牺牲了的战士。
    • His boy was dead, slain by the hand of the false Amulius. 他的儿子被奸诈的阿缪利乌斯杀死了。
    4 defiant [dɪˈfaɪənt] 6muzw   第10级
    adj.无礼的,挑战的
    参考例句:
    • With a last defiant gesture, they sang a revolutionary song as they were led away to prison. 他们被带走投入监狱时,仍以最后的反抗姿态唱起了一支革命歌曲。
    • He assumed a defiant attitude toward his employer. 他对雇主采取挑衅的态度。
    5 subjective [səbˈdʒektɪv] mtOwP   第7级
    a.主观(上)的,个人的
    参考例句:
    • The way they interpreted their past was highly subjective. 他们解释其过去的方式太主观。
    • A literary critic should not be too subjective in his approach. 文学评论家的看法不应太主观。
    6 forums [ˈfɔ:rəmz] 68daf8bdc8755fe8f4859024b3054fb8   第7级
    讨论会; 座谈会; 广播专题讲话节目; 集会的公共场所( forum的名词复数 ); 论坛,讨论会,专题讨论节目; 法庭
    参考例句:
    • A few of the forums were being closely monitored by the administrators. 有些论坛被管理员严密监控。
    • It can cast a dark cloud over these forums. 它将是的论坛上空布满乌云。
    7 intentionally [in'tenʃənli] 7qOzFn   第8级
    ad.故意地,有意地
    参考例句:
    • I didn't say it intentionally. 我是无心说的。
    • The local authority ruled that he had made himself intentionally homeless and was therefore not entitled to be rehoused. 当地政府裁定他是有意居无定所,因此没有资格再获得提供住房。
    8 compute [kəmˈpju:t] 7XMyQ   第7级
    n.计算,估计;vt.计算;估算;用计算机计算;vi.计算;估算;推断
    参考例句:
    • I compute my losses at 500 dollars. 我估计我的损失有五百元。
    • The losses caused by the floods were beyond compute. 洪水造成的损失难以估量。
    9 marketing [ˈmɑ:kɪtɪŋ] Boez7e   第8级
    n.行销,在市场的买卖,买东西
    参考例句:
    • They are developing marketing network. 他们正在发展销售网络。
    • He often goes marketing. 他经常去市场做生意。
    10 advertising [ˈædvətaɪzɪŋ] 1zjzi3   第7级
    n.广告业;广告活动 adj.广告的;广告业务的
    参考例句:
    • Can you give me any advice on getting into advertising? 你能指点我如何涉足广告业吗?
    • The advertising campaign is aimed primarily at young people. 这个广告宣传运动主要是针对年轻人的。

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