The introduction of 5G mobile phone networks could seriously affect weather forecasters’ ability to predict major storms.

移动5G网络的应用可能会严重影响暴风雨预报的准确性。

That is the stark¹ warning of meteorologists around the world, who say the next-generation wireless² system now being rolled out across the globe is likely to disrupt the delicate satellite instruments they use to monitor changes in the atmosphere.

这是来自全球气象学家的严酷警告。他们认为，正在全球推广的5G网络将干扰用于监测大气变化的精密卫星设备。

The result will be impaired³ forecasts, poorer warnings about major storms, and loss of life, they say.

气象学家表示，这将导致气象预报准确性被削弱，大型风暴预警能力降低以及人员死亡。

“The way 5G is being introduced could seriously compromise our ability to forecast major storms,” said Tony McNally of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading. “In the end it could make the difference between life and death. We are very concerned about this.”

欧洲中期天气预报中心的托尼-麦克纳利说：“5G网络的应用方式可能会严重损害我们预报大型风暴的能力，这最终导致的结果事关生死。我们非常担心这一点。”欧洲中期天气预报中心位于英国雷丁。

The crisis facing the world’s meteorologists stems from the fact that the radio frequencies the new 5G networks will use could contaminate critical Earth observations made by weather satellites.

让全球气象学家如临大敌的原因是，新的5G网络将使用的无线电频率会影响气象卫星对地球观测的关键数据。

Instruments on board the satellites peer down into the atmosphere and study variables such as water vapor⁴, rain, snow, cloud cover and ice content – all crucial factors that influence our weather.

气象卫星所搭载的设备自上而下对大气进行观测，并研究水蒸汽、雨雪、云量和含冰量等变量数据，这些都是影响天气的关键因素。

One example is the 23.8 gigahertz (GHz) frequency. Water vapor emits a faint signal at this specific natural wavelength⁵, and this data is monitored and measured by weather satellites. Forecasters then use this information to work out how a storm or weather system is likely to develop.

以23.8千兆赫频率为例。水蒸气在这一特定的自然波长发射出微弱信号，这一数据被气象卫星的设备监测并测量到，天气预报员使用这一信息计算出暴风雨或天气系统将如何变化。

“Such data is critical to our ability to make forecasts,” said Niels Bormann, also of the Reading weather centre. “They are a unique natural resource, and if we lose this capability⁶, weather forecasts will get significantly worse.”

雷丁天气中心的尼尔斯-铂尔曼说：“这种数据对我们预报天气的能力非常关键。它们是独特的自然资源，如果我们失去了这种预报能力，天气预报会准确性将极大降低。”

The problem is that some 5G phone networks may transmit near a frequency similar to that emitted by water vapor, and so would produce a signal that looks very like its presence in the atmosphere.

问题就在于，一些移动5G网络的传输频率与水蒸气的这一信号频率接近，会导致大气中监测到的信号发生混淆。

“We would not be able to tell the difference and so would have to discard that data,” added Bormann. “That would compromise our ability to make accurate forecasts.”

铂尔曼补充说：“我们没办法分辨这两种信号，因此不得不弃用这种数据。这就会影响我们天气预报的准确性。”

The urgency of the problem is underlined by the fact that US Federal Communications Commission and similar agencies in other countries have already started to auction⁷ off frequencies close to the 23.8 GHz frequency to future 5G network providers. In addition, other bands that are used to probe our weather include the 36-37 GHz band, which is used to study rain and snow; the 50 GHz band, which is used to measure atmospheric⁸ temperature; and the 86-92 Ghz band, which helps to analyse cloud and ice.

美国联邦通信委员会和其他国家的类似机构已开始拍卖23.8千兆赫附近的频率，以供未来的5G网络服务商使用，使得这一问题非常紧迫。此外，用于预测天气的其他频段还包括36至37千兆赫（用于研究雨雪天气）、50千兆赫（用于测量大气温度）、以及86至92千兆赫（用于分析阴云和冰雪天气）。

All these contain sections of waveband that are being auctioned⁹ off in the US. It remains¹⁰ to be seen if other nations will follow suit and sell these frequencies in their own countries over coming months. The issue is set to be debated at a global conference in Egypt later this year.

所有这些频段中都包含即将被美国拍卖的频率。未来几个月，是否有其他国家跟进，在本国拍卖这些频率我们还将拭目以待。今年晚些时候，专家们将在埃及举行的一次全球会议上讨论这一问题。

Forecasters say the US move has already compromised their ability to collect data, and promise to lobby other nations to limit use of crucial frequencies to preserve their ability to provide accurate forecasts. They accuse phone operators of ransacking¹¹ the radio spectrum¹² for wavelengths¹³ to exploit, and regulators of failing to protect the natural frequencies vital for Earth observation from space. “The more we lose, the greater the impact will be,” states meteorologist Jordan Gerth, of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, in the current issue of Nature. “This is a global problem.”

气象预报员们表示，美国这一举动已经损害了他们收集数据的能力。他们承诺会游说其他国家限制关键频率的使用，以保持他们提供准确预测的能力。他们指责手机运营商洗劫无线电频谱的波长为自己所用，监管者也没能保护对太空地球监测至关重要的自然频率。威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校的气象学家乔丹-格斯在最新一期的《自然》杂志上写道：“我们失去的频率越多，影响就越大。这是一个全球性问题。”