It's barely 2011 but Karen Ward¹ at HSBC is looking ahead what the world will look like in the middle of the century. By 2050, China is predicted to have overtaken the U.S. to become the world's largest economy. India is forecast to be in third place, followed by Japan. Nineteen of the top 30 will be today's "emerging economies," which will collectively be bigger than the developed world.

刚迈入2011年，汇丰银行英国经济学家凯伦·沃德就开始展望本世纪中叶的世界会是什么样子。根据她的预测，到了2050年，中国将取代美国，成为世界上最大的经济体。印度将位列第三，日本紧跟其后。届时排名前30的经济体中将有19个是今天的"新兴经济体"它们聚合起的经济实力将超过发达国家世界。

How does Europe look? Ms. Ward puts Germany in fifth place, and on its heels in sixth, the U.K., both one slot lower than today. France is down three slots in ninth, under Brazil and Mexico. Italy is down four places in 11th, below Canada and just ahead of Turkey. Spain is down two places, to 14th, below South Korea and just ahead of Russia.

欧洲的情况将如何呢?沃德女士预测德国将位居第五，接踵而至的是英国，排名第六，两个国家的排名均比目前低一位。法国则会下滑三位，排到第九，位于巴西和墨西哥之后。意大利下滑四位，名列第11，排在加拿大之后，仅在土耳其之前。西班牙下降两个名次，至第14，落后于韩国，仅仅领先于俄罗斯。

China' s annual economic output by 2050 is forecast to reach $24.6 trillion (in 2000 dollars), the U.S. $22.3 trillion, India $8.2 trillion, Japan $6.4 trillion, Germany $3.7 trillion and the U.K. $3.6 trillion. France is a $2.8 trillion economy and ltaly a $2.2 trillion one.

预计到2050年，那时中国的年经济产值将达到24.6万亿美元(参照2000年时美元汇率)，美国为22.3万亿美元，印度为8.2万亿美元，日本是6.4万亿美元，德国3.7万亿美元，英国3.6万亿美元，法国与意大利的经济规模将分别达到2.8万亿和2.2万亿美元。

Why does the U.K. do relatively² well? A good part of the answer is demography³, a factor that helps the U.S. too. By 2050, the U.K. will have 72 million people compared with Germany's 71 million and France's 68 million, the forecast suggests.

为什么英国会取得相对不错的成绩呢?这一答案部分是得益于人口统计学，而这一因素也帮助了美国。预测显示，到2050年，英国将有7200万人口，相比之下，德国人口数为7100万人，法国为6800万人。

She adds: "The small-population, ageing, rich economies in Europe are the big losers. Switzerland and the Netherlands slip down the grid⁴ significantly, and Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Norway and Denmark drop out of our Top 30 altogether."

她还说，在欧洲，那些人口少、老龄化且富裕的经济体排名下降很大，值得注意的就是瑞士和荷兰的排位将直线下滑，而瑞典、比利时、奥地利、挪威和丹麦更是统统跌出了前30名外。

Of course, that doesn't make them poor. The Netherlands, down eight places as the world's 23rd economy, is predicted to have per capitaincome of $46,000 (in 2000 dollars)，compared with just over $26,000 today. Switzerland's 9 million people are forecast to enjoy an average income of $84，000，compared with $39,000 today. China's 1.4 billion people are forecast to have income of $17,000 per head, compared with $2,400.

当然，这并不会使它们变得穷困。荷兰虽下滑八位，成为排名第23位的世界经济体，但其人均收入预计将达到46000美元(参照2000年时美元汇率)，目前荷兰人均收入仅略高于26000美元。拥有900万人口的瑞士人均收入目前为如削美元，预计2050将达到84000美元。而拥有14亿人口的中国人均收入将从目前的2400美元增至17000美元。

The calculations assume continuing open borders and no major wars or natural disasters. They are based on three determinants, drawing from the work of Harvard University's Robert Barro: the starting level of per capita income; human capital, which relates to levels of education, health and fertility; and economic governance, which refers to the variables such as the degree of monetary⁵ stability, property rights, democracy, the rule of law and government size.

这项预测做出的前提是假定持续开放边境、不爆发大规模的战争或出现严重自然灾害。上述计算基于三个决定性因素——这些因素来摞于哈佛大学罗伯特·巴罗的著作:人均收入的起始水平;人力资本，这涉及教育、健康及生青水平;经济管理，这是指诸如金融体系的稳定性程度、产权、民主、法制以及政府规模等一些可变因素。