As the World Cup kicks off Friday in South Africa, there is responsible or sober-minded statistician who wouldn't concede the following point: England's national soccer team is one of the best it has sent to this tournament in a long time.

2010年6月11日，世界杯足球赛在南非拉开帷幕。任何一个有责任感的足球信息分析员或头脑清楚的足球数据统计员都会得出一个结论:这次出征的英格兰国家队是很久以来水准最高的一支。

Yet Luke Smith, a 28-year-old member of the team's support club, has a different assessment¹. "We're third captain this year and Rooney looks knackered, he said, "It's like we're destined² to lose out again."

英格兰队球迷俱乐部成员、28岁的卢克·史密斯持有不同观点今年都换了两届队长了，鲁尼好像也无精打采的。看来命中注定我们这次又要输球了。"

In a sport where the ball rarely finds the goal and the events of millisecond can infect a nation for decades, the first question that occupies fans isn't how their, team can win, but which of its weaknesses is most likely to prove fatal. The more you know about the World Cup, the more pessimistic you become.

足球这项运动每次比赛的进球数量很少，但几微秒之内发生的事就能影响一个国家的情绪长达数十年之久。萦绕在球迷心中的首要问题不是他们支持的球队怎么才能赢，而是哪一个弱点最有可能让其球队惨败。你越了解世界杯，就会变得越悲观。

David Goldblatt, the author of "The Ball is Round: a Global History of Football，" calls the tournament "manifestly and regularly unjust." As a result, he said, "Football culture is better at finding problems than solutions, reasons not to believe than to believe."

球是圆的:足球的世界史》一书的作者戴维·古德布莱特把世界杯足球赛称之为"明显的不公平，经常性的不公平"。结果就是，他说足球文化更偏重于找到问题，而不是找到问题的解决方案;更偏重于寻找不相信的理由，而不是相信的理由。"

Brazil has won a record five World Cups and reached seven finals. And by many accounts, Brazil is favored to win again.

巴西曾五次夺得世界杯桂冠，七次打进决赛，创下了历史纪录。从许多方面来看，巴西都很可能再次站到冠军领奖台上。

Yet most Brazilians believe past success is precisely³ the reason to expect failure. In the noisy 25 de Marco shopping district in downtown SaoPaulo, pre-tournament anxiety is palpable this week among shoppers and sales clerks crowding the bins⁴ of clown-sized yellow glasses frames, plastic horns and T-shirts.

然而，大多数巴西人认为，过去的成功正是这次可能遭遇失败的原因。在巴西圣保罗熙熙攘攘的25 de Marco商业购物区，在众多前来购买夸张的黄色眼镜框、塑料喇叭和T恤衫的顾客身上，在周围忙碌的销售员身上，都能看到一些临赛前对巴西队的担忧。

Rogerio Junqueira, who was looking to pick up some collectable national team stickers for his son, worries that the big salaries Brazilian players earn these days playing in European leagues have undermined their will to play with heart for the national team. "When you look back, we had players who left their blood on the field ," Mr. Junqueira said. "Now, they're likely to ask 'How many millions of dollars will I get if I leave some blood on the field?' No, I'm not confident this year."

罗杰里奥·钱科拉来给儿子买些巴西国家队贴纸作为收藏，他担心现在这些巴西球员平时都在欧洲球队效力，赚取大把大把的钞票，这将影响他们全力以赴地为国家队踢球。"历史上曾有巴西球员血洒世界杯赛场钱科拉说，"现在，巴西球员可能会问:'要是我在球场上受伤，会得到几百万美元的补偿?'所以，我对今年巴西夺冠信心不大。"

Some Brazilian insecurity may sound irrational⁵. "My problem this year is that Brazil will have one of the best defenses in the world. That doesn't make me feel good," said Joao de Matos, a Brazilian who runs two Brazilian restaurants in New York. The problem is, Brazil has always been known for its offense⁶. Yet lately, it struggled to score in World Cup qualifying and at one point was trailing 2-0 to the U.S. in the Confederations Cup final before roaring back to win. "We haven⁷ 't been scoring a lot," said Eloa da Silva, a Brazilian living in Florida

有些巴西人的担忧听起来似乎没什么道理。"今年我担心的是巴西队拥有全世界最强大的防守阵容，这一点让我感觉不好。"在纽约经营两家巴西餐馆的巴西人乔·德·麦托斯说。问题在于，巴西一直以其凌厉的进攻闻名于世，但在这次的世界杯资格赛上一路跌跌撞撞，甚至在联合会杯决赛上一度以0:2的比分落后于美国队，好不容易才后来居上赢得比赛。"我们最近的进球不多。"住在佛罗里达的巴西人艾罗阿·达·西尔瓦说道。

If any country should feel confident, it's Italy -the reigning⁸ World Cup champion. But its fans are no more optimistic than they were four years ago. The team is largely the same, after all which makes the players four years older.

要说哪个国家队应该感觉信心十足，那可能就是卫冕冠军意大利队了。然而，意大利球迷并不比四年前乐观，因为意大利的主力阵容眼四年前差不多——也就是说，球员都老了四岁。

"I don't think I've ever felt so pessimistic about their chances," says Massimo Cusano, a 27-year-old office manager in Vancouver and former Florence resident whose parents are from Italy. Expressing a common concern , Mr. Cusano says Coach Marcello Lippi is relying too heavily onolder players. At an average age of 28.73, Italy's roster⁹ is the fifth-oldest of the 32 World Cup teams. "He was simply much too arrogant¹⁰ when he selected the squad¹¹ ," Mr. Cusano says.

"我从来没有对意大利队夺冠的概率这么悲观过。"温哥华一位27岁的行政经理马西莫·库萨诺说，他以前住在佛罗伦萨，父母都是意大利人。库萨诺表示，意大利主教练马塞洛·里皮过于依赖老球员，在选择出场阵容时太过自负了。意大利队球员的平均年龄为28.73岁，是32支世界杯参赛队中排名第五的高龄球队。

Argentina's ample national pride may suggest its fans think they're destined to win, but their fatalistic minds tell them they won't, mainly because of the one-man telenovela coaching the team, former star Diego Maradona.

阿根延球迷热情洋溢的国家自豪感也许会让人觉得他们已经胜券在握，但阿根廷球迷中弥漫着一种宿命论的情绪，认为获胜没那么容易，主要是因为一个长期的媒体焦点人物——球队主教练迭戈·马拉多纳。

A recovering cocaine¹² addict¹³, Mr. Maradona has promised to do a striptease in downtown Buenos Aires if Argentina wins, but it seems probable that "EI Diego" will be exposed long before then by his volcanic¹⁴ personality, hostile dealings with the media and odd tactical notions.

戒毒成功的马拉多纳承诺，只要阿根廷队夺冠，他就在布宜诺斯艾利斯的商业区裸奔。不过，在看到那一幕之前，恐怕我们先会看到他的火爆性格态度，以及古怪的战术策略。

"There's no doubt he knew how to play like a champion," says Luis Rinaldi , a fan following the sportscasts from South Africa in a-sky-blue-and-white-draped Buenos Aires cafe. "Still , you look at this team sometimes and shake your head and ask," What kind of coach have we put in charge here? "It is definitely a test of our faith in Diego."

"毫无疑问，马拉多纳知道一个冠军队该怎么踢球。"在南非一家以蓝白色条纹为基调的布宜诺斯艾利斯酒吧看着比赛转播的阿根廷球迷路易斯·利纳蒂说但有时候你看这支球队的表现，会摇着头问‘我们到底安排了一个什么样的主教练啊?.这绝对是公众对马拉多纳的一种考验。"

Even when Argentina succeeds, there first comes agony. Veronica Chiatellino, a 30-year-old Buenos Aires native who now lives in Barcelona, remembers how the Chiatellino, who is at the World Cup. It needed a goal with nice minutes left in its last qualification game against Peru just to clinch¹⁵ a spot. Then it won the whole tournament. "We have to suffer to be champions. It's in our blood," says Ms. Chiatellino, who is at the World Cup.

即使阿根延队获胜，首先遭遇的也会是许多磨难。30岁的布宜诺斯艾利斯人、现居巴塞罗纳的韦罗妮卡·吉阿苔里诺说，她还记得1986年阿根廷队差点没能闯入世界杯的情形。当时，阿根廷队的最后一场资格赛只剩9分钟，只有进球战胜秘鲁队才能获得世界杯的人场券，但最后阿根廷队一路过关斩将夺得世界杯冠军。"要想夺冠，就得历经艰险，这是阿根延队命中注定的。"正在南非观看世界杯的吉阿苔里诺说道。

Ground zero for dread¹⁶ this year is England. The nation that invented soccer has won its top prize only once, 44 years ago.In the past, England has lost matches to such soccer weaklings as the Soviet¹⁷ Union and the U.S. , and has also been knocked out by stalwarts like Portugal, Argentina and Brazil.

最没有信心的应该是英国球迷。英国这个发明足球的国家只赢得一次世界杯冠军，而且是在44年前。在历史上，英格兰队不但被葡萄牙、阿根廷和巴西这样的强队击败过，也曾负于前苏联队和美国队这样的弱旅。

Its particular nemesis¹⁸ is Germany, which has twice eliminated England from the World Cup and has inflicted¹⁹ many other humiliations in European tournaments. To Englishman Brian Larkin and millions of his countrymen, there is dark comfort in expecting more of the same. No matter what the circumstances, he says, England's story at the World Cup is always the same. "Twenty-two men running around a field kicking a bag of air," Mr. Larkin said. "Then Germany wins on penalties."

英格兰队的天敌是德国队，后者两次把英格兰队阻击在世界杯的门外，并在欧洲杯上给英格兰队带来很多次的羞辱。对英国人布莱恩·拉尔金以及数百万像他这样的英国球迷来说，反正对结果不抱任何希望，心里反而有着一丝安慰和坦然。拉尔金说，不管发生什么事情，英格兰队总是难逃噩运的诅咒。"22个人在球场上乱跑，对着空气踢来踢去，最后德国队点球获胜。"

Feeding British pessimism²⁰ this year: John Terry lost his captain's armband when news broke he'd had an affair with a teammate's girlfriend. A spate²¹ of injuries has hobbled the team. Coach Fabio Capello, an Italian, made some controversial decisions about who did and didn't make the side. Even the team itself isn't bursting with confidence.

今年让英国球迷更感灰心的是:约翰·特里因与队友的女友爆出外遇丑闻而摘下队长臂章。接二连三的队员受伤令英格兰队的世界杯之旅步履蹒跚。球队主教练、意大利人法比奥·卡佩罗的一些球员调配决定备受争议，就连球员自己也都信心不足。

Upon his arrival in South Africa, England's Mr. Terry said, "with the conditions on our side and the quality in our squad and a little bit of luck, who knows?"

抵达南非后，英格兰队的特里说根据球队的状态，球员的水准，再加上一点好运气，谁知道结果是什么呢? "

In Mexico, which opens the World Cup on Friday against South Africa, there is widespread concern about height or the lack of it. Reforma, the country's leading newspaper, calculated the height of all 32 teams competing in the games and determined²² that Mexico's is the second shortest, with each player averaging 1.7756 meters. The shortest players are Chilean, who measure 1.7713 meters per man. The tournament' s tallest players are the Serbians, who average 1.8613 meter per player, according to Reforma. One consolation²³, the newspaper noted²⁴, is that Mexico is playing in the shortest group.

墨西哥队在揭幕赛中对阵东道主南非队。在墨西哥，人们普遍担心球员的高度问题。墨西哥官方报纸《改革报》计算了全部32支参赛队的身高，结论是墨西哥队排名倒数第二，平均身高只有1.7756米。最矮的球队是智利队，平均身高为1.7713米。最高的球队是塞尔维亚队，平均身高1.8613米。令人宽慰的是《改革报》称墨西哥队正好在平均身高最矮的小组中进行比赛。

Still, Mexicans worry. Gerardo "EI Gringo" Gonzalez, an insurance salesman, says lack of stature²⁵ could prove fatal to Mexico. And he knows first-hand that stature matters. He plays in a weekend amateur league in Mexico City despite standing²⁶ only 1.7 meters tall. "It's a disadvantage," says Mr. Gonzalez.

不过，墨西哥球迷还是有些担心。保险推销员吉尔拉多·冈萨雷斯说，身高不够也许是墨西哥队的致命弱点。这一点他有亲身体会，因为他的身高只有1.7米，平时在墨西哥城一支只在周末活动的业余球队里踢球。"身材不高确实是一种劣势。"冈萨雷斯说道。

Former Mexican foreign minister Jorge Castaneda said in an interview that 2010 might be a fortuitous tournament for Mexico. "You can be chaparro Mexican slang for small and still win or not," said the longtime soccer fan.

墨西哥前外交部长佐治·贾斯达涅达在一次访谈中说，2010年世界杯可能是墨西哥交好运的一届比赛。这位老球迷说我们个子虽然不高，但输或赢的可能性都是有的。"

In Japan, confidence is certainly running low. It is "very evident that the Japanese athletes" ability is low, the Asian teams are definitely lower than Europe and Africa," said Toshiyuki Kosugi, a former professional player and sportswriter for the Chunichi, a Nagoya-based daily, who's currently reporting in South Africa. Jap6an's Samurai Blue team enters the tournament on a four-game losing streak²⁷, falling most recently to the Ivory Coast last week.

在日本，球迷的信心显然并不高。"很明显，日本队球员的水平较低，亚洲队普遍比欧洲队和非洲队的实力弱。"曾是职业球员的小杉俊说道，他现在是名古屋一家日报《中日新闻》的体青记者，正在南非报道世界杯。

In a logical world, everything would be serene²⁸ in the Netherlands. The team went a perfect 8-0 in qualifying and is back to playing the beautiful and fluid brand of Total Football (where every field player is capable of playing every position) made famous by the "Clockwork Orange" teams of the 1970s.

身穿"武士蓝"队服的日本队以四败的战绩进入世界杯，最近又新败给名不见经传的科特迪瓦队。从理论上讲，荷兰队似乎能在世界杯上一帆风顺。资格赛中，荷兰队以8胜0负的骄人成绩人围，重新展现出 20世纪70年代绰号"发条橙"的荷兰队那种"全攻全守足球即每个在场球员都能胜任任何位置的流畅飘逸风格。

But in recent days, forward Robin²⁹ van Persie publicly called for Coach Bert van Marwijck to drop forward Dirk Kuyt from the starting lineup. And there have been hard feelings between Mr. van Persie and midfielder Wesley Sneijder originating from a hard tackle two years ago.

但最近几天，前锋罗宾·范佩西公开要求主教练贝特·范马尔维克把前锋迪尔克·库伊特从首发阵容中剔除出来。此外，范佩西与前卫威斯利·斯奈德自两年前的一场冲突后一直关系不佳。

Germany, with its machine-like discipline, has made the knockout stage in every World Cup since 1938, won three championships and reached 11 semifinals But the nation still hasn't recovered from the suicide of longtime goalkeeper Robert Enke, who suffered from depression and jumped in front of a train in December. Last month, Die Mannschaft (The Team) lost captain Michael Ballack to a knee injury. "There is simply no replacing Ballack," said Jurgen Klinsmann , the former star and coach.

德国队像台机器般精准地运转，心理素质稳定，自 1938年以来的每一届世界杯都杀人淘汰阶段，赢得三届冠军， 11次进入半决赛。但这个国家还未从痛失老牌门将罗伯特·恩克的悲伤中恢复过来，恩克患有抑郁症，于2009年12月跳向行驶的火车结束了自己的生命。 2010年5月，德国队队长迈克尔·巴拉克又因膝盖受伤退出比赛。"队里根本投入能够替代巴拉克。"前足球明星、现任德国队主教练尤尔根·克林斯曼这样说道。