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风投资金在2015年五大趋势
添加时间:2015-01-11 17:56:18 浏览次数: 作者:未知
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  • Each year I compile a list of predictions from a venture capitalist perspective—with the goal of providing a practical look into what to expect in the year ahead. With a lot of talk around a bubble and with companies in all sectors1 continuing rapid-scale and innovation, below are five mega-trends I anticipate will make a big impact in 2015.

    每年,我都会从风投资本家的角度做出一系列预测,目的是对来年进行务实的展望和预测。许多人都在谈论泡沫,各行各业的企业都在不断迅速扩张和创新。在这种情况下,我对将在2015年产生重大影响的五大趋势进行了预测,具体如下。

    1. The Internet-of-Things will be less about the things:In 2015, it will be about the software, not the hardware. Last year we saw feverish2 M&A activity in hardware but, next year, I expect to see the IoT battleground shift to software. I also predict that hardware IoT will prove out to become much more of a commodity. We already are seeing some of this played out in the smartwatch world with Apple AAPL -0.07% ,FitBit and others focused on matching features and commoditized offerings. In 2015, I expect IoT software and services to take center stage.

    1. 物联网将不再那么侧重于“物”:2015年属于软件,而不是硬件。去年,硬件领域的并购活动热火朝天;但我预计,明年物联网战场将转移至软件行业。我还认为,硬件物联网在很大程度上终将转变为一种商品。智能手表领域已经出现了这样的情况,苹果公司(Apple)、FitBit和其他一些制造商都在重点关注类似的功能和产品的商品化。对于2015年,我的预测是物联网软件和服务将占据中央舞台。

    2. Online education will graduate to higher valuations:Online is at a true inflection point and will accelerate. Just this month, Stanford’s Graduate School of Business took its investment in online education to a whole new level by announcing that a new program for company executives will be delivered entirely3 by way of the Internet. According to Global Industry Analyst4, online education in 2015 will reach $107 billion, which will represent a doubling in just three years. There are many incumbent5 institutions now offering online curriculum, and several newer companies with innovative6 models making incredible progress like Udemy*, Coursera, Lynda and PluralSight. I wouldn’t be surprised if these garnered7unicorn8” valuations and grew even faster.

    2.在线教育的价值将逐步上升:在线教育正处于真正的转折点,而且将加速发展。就在这个月,斯坦福商学院(Stanford’s Graduate School of Business)的在线教育投资迈上了一个新台阶——该学院针对企业高管推出了一门完全通过互联网教授的课程。市场研究机构Global Industry Analyst估算,2015年在线教育市场的规模将达到1070亿美元,这个数字在短短三年之内翻了一番。许多老牌教育机构现在都推出了网络课程,Udemy*、Coursera、Lynda和PluralSight等刚刚涉足这个领域的企业则借助创新模式取得了难以置信的发展。即使这些公司的估值上升到“独角兽”级别(10亿美元)并以更快的速度增长,我也不会感到意外。

    3. New generation of marketplaces will surpass value of Apple:“Marketplaces 2.0” is a theme that will thrive as a mega-venture category. We witnessed major financing including sky-high valuations from LendingClub* ($3.6 billion), Airbnb ($10 billion in April) and Grubhub ($1.9 billion in April). Emerging marketplaces like Minted and Udemy are now real contenders capable of challenging the last generation of marketplaces like Craigslist and eBay. I believe that within just five years, the public valuations of all major online marketplaces like Etsy, LendingClub, Udemy, Minted*, Grubhub, Zillow Z -0.31% , and Airbnb will together approach and perhaps surpass Apple’s valuation today, and that is not even counting Alibaba BABA 0.03% . This dynamic will give way to the birth of the “Marketplaces 2.0” era, which could drive venture returns and improve employment markets.

    3.新一代网络市场的价值将超过苹果公司:Marketplaces 2.0主题将在风投界大行其道。估值极高的公司,比如P2P融资平台LendingClub*(36亿美元)、房屋租赁网站Airbnb(4月份估值100亿美元)和订餐网站Grubhub(4月份估值19亿美元),都已进行了大规模融资。Minted*和Udemy等新生力量已经有能力挑战Craigslist和eBay等老一代网络市场,并成为后者真正的竞争对手。我相信,包括Etsy、LendingClub、Udemy、Minted、Grubhub、Zillow和Airbnb在内所有主要网络企业的市值将在5年内接近甚至超过现在的苹果公司——这还没有把阿里巴巴集团(Alibaba)计算在内。这种态势将催生Marketplaces 2.0时代,从而提高风投回报水平并改善就业市场状况。

    4. The NASDAQ willflatline… and that’s okay:In 2014 the NASDAQ index created a massive amount of chatter9 in the investor10 blogosphere around talks of a “Bubble.” For 2015, I actually expect the NASDAQ to be relatively11 flat and may even be slightly lower. However, the real issue we will face in 2015 is volatility12. This lackluster performance in 2015 will not affect early-stage venture as much, but it may put a more moderate tone to potential IPO’s. Having said that, great companies will continue to IPO in 2015 but the bar will be high. I see this as a very nice and gentle way to let “air out” of a perceived asset bubble, and much better than having a complete burst. While this may be viewed as negative, I view this as a positive in 2015 and perhaps necessary to keep a healthy and robust13 market of high-quality IPO’s going.

    4.纳斯达克走势将趋平……这没关系:2014年,投资者们在自己的博客里大谈特谈纳斯达克指数(NASDAQ index),主题是“泡沫”。实际上,对于2015年,我认为该指数的走势将相对平稳,甚至可能略有下跌。不过,2015年的真正问题在于市场波动。这种司空见惯的现象对早期风投不会有很大影响,但可能会降低市场对潜在首发上市公司的热情。尽管如此,一些不错的企业仍将在2015年开展首次公开募股,只是上市的门槛会很高。在我看来,这是一件好事,它能以非常温和的方式压缩人们所认为的资产泡沫,这要比泡沫彻底破裂好得多。虽然人们可能认为此举将带来不利影响,但我觉得这是2015年的一个有利因素,而且可能是保持高质量IPO市场健康和稳健的必要条件。

    5. Bollywood is back; Brazil misses the goal:For international and emerging market ventures, 2015 will be the year of India. Brazil, Russia, India, and China all had been developing and maturing very impressive Internet properties in the last few years, and we saw some of those hit the IPO market in 2014. Alibaba certainly proved that for China. India had a very positive election, which should bolster14 confidence and allow the country to thrive in 2015. There are many great technology companies there that will take advantage of this positive landscape. Companies like Flipkart, Snapeal, Quikr* and Yatra* are companies to watch. On the other hand, Brazil was not as lucky as India in terms of its Presidential election and political landscape. I predict that Brazil will struggle in the coming year. Meanwhile, we could potentially see some major India IPO’s in the coming years. As a result, there will be some increased and renewed attention on India from the global venture community.

    5.印度将回归人们的视野,巴西将达不到目标:对国际和新兴市场风投来说,2015年将属于印度。过去几年中,巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国互联网企业的增长和成熟都非常引人注目,其中一些公司还在2014年首发上市。阿里巴巴当然证明了中国在这方面的成就。印度的大选结果非常有利,应该有助于提振市场信心,并让印度在2015年繁荣发展。很多不错的印度科技企业都将利用这一有利环境。可以关注的公司有Flipkart、Snapeal、Quikr*和Yatra*。另一方面,巴西在总统选举和政治局势方面就不像印度那么幸运。我预测2015年巴西将陷入困境。同时,今后几年印度可能出现一些重大IPO。因此,国际风投界对印度的关注程度可能重新有所提升。

    Overall, 2015 will be an important year for progress in key geographies and sectors. However, volatility and talk of bubbles will make this a potentially difficult year for those who may not have the stomach for fluctuations15.

    总之,2015年对关键地区和行业的发展来说很重要。不过,如果企业无力应对震荡所带来的影响,那么市场波动和泡沫论有可能让企业在2015年一筹莫展。(财富中文网)

    Sergio Monsalve (@vcserge) is a partner with Norwest Venture Partners, where he focuses on early-stage and growth investments in e-commerce, consumerized SaaS, consumer finance and educational technologies. Companies marked with * in this post are NVP portfolio16 companies.

    塞尔吉奥o蒙萨尔维是硅谷风投公司Norwest Venture Partners的合伙人,专注于投资早期以及成长型电子商务、消费型软件即服务、消费金融和教育科技公司。本文中标注*的公司则表示该公司获得了Norwest Venture Partners的投资。

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    1 sectors ['sektəs] 218ffb34fa5fb6bc1691e90cd45ad627   第7级
    n.部门( sector的名词复数 );领域;防御地区;扇形
    参考例句:
    • Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
    • Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
    2 feverish [ˈfi:vərɪʃ] gzsye   第9级
    adj.发烧的,狂热的,兴奋的
    参考例句:
    • He is too feverish to rest. 他兴奋得安静不下来。
    • They worked with feverish haste to finish the job. 为了完成此事他们以狂热的速度工作着。
    3 entirely [ɪnˈtaɪəli] entirely   第9级
    ad.全部地,完整地;完全地,彻底地
    参考例句:
    • The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
    • His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。
    4 analyst [ˈænəlɪst] gw7zn   第9级
    n.分析家,化验员;心理分析学家
    参考例句:
    • What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst? 你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务?
    • The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards. 分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。
    5 incumbent [ɪnˈkʌmbənt] wbmzy   第9级
    adj.成为责任的,有义务的;现任的,在职的
    参考例句:
    • He defeated the incumbent governor by a large plurality. 他以压倒多数票击败了现任州长。
    • It is incumbent upon you to warn them. 你有责任警告他们。
    6 innovative [ˈɪnəveɪtɪv] D6Vxq   第8级
    adj.革新的,新颖的,富有革新精神的
    参考例句:
    • Discover an innovative way of marketing. 发现一个创新的营销方式。
    • He was one of the most creative and innovative engineers of his generation. 他是他那代人当中最富创造性与革新精神的工程师之一。
    7 garnered ['ɡɑ:nəd] 60d1f073f04681f98098b8374f4a7693   第10级
    v.收集并(通常)贮藏(某物),取得,获得( garner的过去式和过去分词 )
    参考例句:
    • Mr. Smith gradually garnered a national reputation as a financial expert. 史密斯先生逐渐赢得全国金融专家的声誉。 来自《简明英汉词典》
    • He has garnered extensive support for his proposals. 他的提议得到了广泛的支持。 来自辞典例句
    8 unicorn [ˈju:nɪkɔ:n] Ak7wK   第11级
    n.(传说中的)独角兽
    参考例句:
    • The unicorn is an imaginary beast. 独角兽是幻想出来的动物。
    • I believe unicorn was once living in the world. 我相信独角兽曾经生活在这个世界。
    9 chatter [ˈtʃætə(r)] BUfyN   第7级
    vi./n.喋喋不休;短促尖叫;(牙齿)打战
    参考例句:
    • Her continuous chatter vexes me. 她的喋喋不休使我烦透了。
    • I've had enough of their continual chatter. 我已厌烦了他们喋喋不休的闲谈。
    10 investor [ɪnˈvestə(r)] aq4zNm   第8级
    n.投资者,投资人
    参考例句:
    • My nephew is a cautious investor. 我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
    • The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon. 这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。
    11 relatively [ˈrelətɪvli] bkqzS3   第8级
    adv.比较...地,相对地
    参考例句:
    • The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia. 兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
    • The operation was relatively painless. 手术相对来说不痛。
    12 volatility [ˌvɒlə'tɪlətɪ] UhSwC   第9级
    n.挥发性,挥发度,轻快,(性格)反复无常
    参考例句:
    • That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
    • Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而,由于相当长的时间里波动性小,灾难短视就获胜了。
    13 robust [rəʊˈbʌst] FXvx7   第7级
    adj.强壮的,强健的,粗野的,需要体力的,浓的
    参考例句:
    • She is too tall and robust. 她个子太高,身体太壮。
    • China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses, AP commented. 美联社评论道,中国希望保持经济强势增长,以减少贫困和失业状况。
    14 bolster [ˈbəʊlstə(r)] ltOzK   第10级
    n.枕垫;v.支持,鼓励
    参考例句:
    • The high interest rates helped to bolster up the economy. 高利率使经济更稳健。
    • He tried to bolster up their morale. 他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。
    15 fluctuations [ˌflʌktjʊ'eɪʃəns] 5ffd9bfff797526ec241b97cfb872d61   第9级
    波动,涨落,起伏( fluctuation的名词复数 )
    参考例句:
    • He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table. 他用统计表显示价格的波动。
    • There were so many unpredictable fluctuations on the Stock Exchange. 股票市场瞬息万变。
    16 portfolio [pɔ:tˈfəʊliəʊ] 9OzxZ   第9级
    n.公事包;文件夹;大臣及部长职位
    参考例句:
    • He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio. 他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
    • He resigned his portfolio. 他辞去了大臣职务。

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