Behind the facade¹ of many a New York City apartment building is the dissonant² sound of residents complaining. The gripes that make their way to the inbox of my Ask Real Estate column offer a glimpse into how residents cope with the myriad³ irritations⁴ that come with living in cramped⁵ and costly⁶ homes. They include the co-op shareholder⁷ horrified⁸ by a neighbor’s rats’ nest; the parents whose building has barred them from using a stroller in the elevator; and the renter whose kitchen cabinets fell from the walls.

在纽约市许多公寓楼的大门背后，充斥着居民们不协调的抱怨声。从我的“房地产答疑”(Ask Real Estate)专栏所收到的抱怨信中，我们可以一窥居民们是如何应对生活在拥挤、昂贵的住房中的种种不顺心的。比方说，有个合作公寓的股东被邻居家的老鼠窝吓坏了；有一对父母被禁止将婴儿车推进楼内的电梯；有个租户厨房里的橱柜从墙壁上掉了下来。

In short, some New Yorkers dislike their neighbors almost as much as they do their landlords. Co-op and condominium boards beware: You do not fare much better.

有些纽约人就像讨厌房东一样讨厌邻居。合作公寓和共管公寓的管委会要小心了：你们也好不到哪去。

The questions New Yorkers ask the column are dictated⁹ not only by their individual circumstances but also by the larger issues of the day, like rising housing costs, gentrification and shoddy construction. In the end, 2014 was a year of things going up — home prices, rents and, above all, buildings, with 16,700 units approved for construction through October, according to the Real Estate Board of New York.

纽约人向专栏提出的问题，不仅取决于他们的个人情况，还取决于当今的重大问题，比如住房成本上升、士绅化、豆腐渣工程。最终，2014年成为了一个一切都在增长的年份，增长的包括房价、租金，以及最重要的——楼盘数量。根据纽约房地产委员会(Real Estate Board of New York)的数据，10月批准建设的单元达到了16700套。

So what forces will shape the questions asked next year? It depends on who (and where) you are. While buyers should brace¹⁰ for another year of high-stakes bidding wars, residents of the city’s far-flung neighborhoods (I’m talking about you, Grand Concourse) should be ready for an onslaught of prospective¹¹ residents seeking bargains — bargains, that is, relative to the gilded¹² ZIP codes that are out of the reach of most mortals.

那么，何种力量将决定大众明年提出的问题？这取决于你的身份（和居住地）。虽然购房者在新的一年里还将迎来高风险的竞购战，但是纽约市的偏远社区（说的就是你，大广场区[Grand Concourse]）将会有大量寻求廉价住宅的潜在居民——所谓廉价，也只是针对那些令多数普通人可望而不可及的黄金地段，相对而言的。

For the New Yorkers who have turned their apartments into bed-and-breakfasts, the battle over illegal inns could reach a fever pitch. On top of it all, Mayor Bill de Blasio’s 10-year affordable¹³ housing plan will take shape just as legislation in Albany threatens to strain the pocketbooks of renters. These are among the game-changers looming¹⁴ as we ring in the New Year.

对于那些已把自家公寓改造成B&B旅店的纽约人，围绕非法住宿的论战可能会趋于白热化。而在这一切之上，市长比尔·白思豪(Bill de Blasio)的十年保障性住房计划将初具规模；与此同时，本次奥尔巴尼会议(Albany)的立法将给租房者的钱包造成重负。随着我们迈向新的一年，这类改变游戏规则的因素也正在日益迫近。

Neighborhoods

居民社区

This year, the average sales price for an apartment in New York City topped $1 million, a milestone¹⁵ with far-reaching implications. As the city’s population soars, prices and buildings are rising in neighborhoods that missed the last housing boom.

今年，纽约市公寓的平均售价突破了100万美元（约合人民币623万元），这是一个影响深远的里程碑。随着城市人口的激增，错过了上一轮楼市繁荣期的社区，都见证了房价和楼盘数量的增长。

“When I started in this business, Brooklyn was the alternative. Now it is a choice,” said Diane M. Ramirez, the chief executive of Halstead Property. “I see Queens becoming that way. The Bronx is not that far down the line.”

“当我刚开始创业的时候，布鲁克林还是个替代选项；而现在，它已经成为一个优选地段了，”霍尔斯特德房地产公司(Halstead Property)的首席执行官黛安娜·M·拉米雷斯(Diane M. Ramirez)说，“我看到皇后区(Queens)正在朝这个方向发展,布朗克斯(Bronx)也不远了。”

Of the 6,527 new rentals¹⁷ scheduled to hit the market in Brooklyn next year, 1,442 are in Bedford-Stuyvesant, Bushwick and Clinton Hill, all considered off the beaten path not that long ago, according to data provided by Citi Habitats.

根据花旗居屋(Citi Habitats)提供的数据，在布鲁克林拟于明年投放市场的6527套新出租屋中，有1442套分布在贝德福德-斯图文森(Bedford-Stuyvesant)、布什维克(Bushwick)和克林顿山(Clinton Hill)。就在不久前，这些社区都还被视为不热门的地区。

For newcomers, these changes provide fresh housing options. But for residents, they can spell displacement¹⁸. The same is true for shops such as De Robertis Pasticceria and Caffe in the East Village, which just closed after a 110-year run. And next year, the Union Square Cafe will likely conclude its 30 years in Union Square.

对于新来的买家，这些变化能够给他们带来新的住房选择。但是对于既有居民而言，这可能意味着他们必须搬走。这点同样适用于De Robertis Pasticceria and Caffe等商铺。这家咖啡馆已经在东村(East Village)持续经营了110个年头，最近刚刚关门歇业。到明年，联合广场咖啡厅(Union Square Cafe)也可能会结束其在联合广场30年的运营。

“New Yorkers have been waking up and realizing this long period of prosperity has wreaked¹⁹ a little bit of havoc²⁰ on things that we think of as classic New York,” said Simeon Bankoff, the executive director of the Historic Districts Council, noting that 2015 will mark the 50th anniversary of the New York City landmarks²¹ preservation²² law. “Things we always thought were going to be there are just closing left and right.”

“纽约人正逐渐意识到，这一漫长的繁荣期已对我们眼中的经典纽约市容造成了破坏，”历史街区保护委员会(Historic Districts Council)的执行董事西蒙·班考夫(Simon Bankoff)说，他同时指出，2015年将是纽约市通过《地标建筑保护法》的50周年。“环顾左右，那些总被我们认为是一成不变的东西，却都在纷纷关门闭户。”

Next year, the mayor’s affordable housing plan, which calls for building or preserving 200,000 units of affordable housing over the next decade, will begin to take shape. It hinges on a policy that requires developers to build affordable housing in exchange for being allowed to construct taller and denser²³ buildings in neighborhoods rezoned by the city. Developers and housing advocates alike are waiting to see what it will look like once the administration adds muscle and flesh to the bones of the proposal.

明年，市长的保障性住房计划将初具规模，该计划要求在未来十年里，修建或保留20万套保障性住房。这一目标的实现取决于一项政策，它要求开发商通过修建保障性住房，来换取在市政府重新规划的社区修建更高、更密集楼盘的资格。至于政府将会如何在这项提案的雏形上添砖加瓦，开发商和保障房倡导者们都在拭目以待。

“Our goal is to produce as many units as we can and, at the same time, make sure that we do it in a way that maintains and enhances the health of neighborhoods,” said Carl Weisbrod, the director of the Department of City Planning.

“我们的目标是修建尽可能多的单元，同时确保这样做能够维持和提高居民社区的健康运转。”城市规划部(Department of City Planning)部长卡尔·魏斯布罗德(Carl Weisbrod)说。

East New York in Brooklyn will be the test case when the Department of City Planning presents initial recommendations early next year. After that, the rezoning process could begin for the neighborhood, among the city’s poorest. A proposal for west Flushing in Queens is next.

当城市规划部门明年初（2015年——译注）提出初步的建议方案时，布鲁克林的东纽约(East New York)地区将被列为试点。随后，重新区划进程就将在该处全市最穷社区之一内展开。而紧随其后的，将是针对皇后区的西法拉盛(Flushing)的提案。

“We need to do what the mayor wants everybody to do, and that is build more housing,” said Steven Spinola, the president of the Real Estate Board of New York. However, “if the numbers don’t work, if the rent that is coming in is less than the cost of maintaining the building, then you are not going to do it.”

“我们需要做市长希望大家做的事——建造更多住房，”纽约房地产委员会主席史蒂芬·斯皮诺拉(Steven Spinola)说，但是，“如果数据上不可行，如果收回来的租金低于建筑的维护成本，那你就不会这么做了。”

Housing advocates worry that if rezoning is not done carefully, communities could quickly gentrify. “Look at what happened in Williamsburg,” said Harvey Epstein, the director of the community development project at the Urban Justice Center, referring to price escalations. “I don’t know why it wouldn’t happen in East New York or the Bronx or in Flushing.”

保障房倡导者们则担心，如果重新区划做得不认真，那么居民社区或将迅速士绅化。“看看威廉斯堡(Williamsburg)发生了什么吧，”城市正义中心(Urban Justice Center)的社区开发项目负责人哈维·艾普斯坦(Harvey Epstein)说，他指的是房价上涨，“我不明白，它怎么就不可能发生在东纽约、布朗克斯或者法拉盛呢。”

Buyers and Sellers

买家和卖家

All-cash buyers. Skittish²⁴ lenders. Skyrocketing prices. Anemic listings. These realities haunt buyers, turning the house hunt into a demoralizing slog. Unfortunately, buyers will probably have to soldier through another year of a market that favors sellers.

现金全款购房者。难以取悦的贷款人。暴涨的价格。匮乏的挂牌信息。这些现实，都困扰着购房者，使找房子的过程让人倍受打击。不幸的是，在新的一年，购房者们可能依旧需要在卖方市场里打拼。

“Our population and employment is at an all-time high and growing. That puts significant pressure on rents and prices,” said Mark Willis, the executive director of the New York University Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy. “There is no reason now to think that these trends are likely to change.”

“我们的人口和就业正处于历史高位，并在不断增长。这给租金和房价施加了很大压力，”纽约大学富曼房地产及城市政策中心(Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy of New York University)的主任马克·威利斯(Mark Willis)说，“现在没有理由认为这些趋势可能发生改变。”

It is not all bad news for buyers: Prices will still head north next year, but the pace will likely slow from a sprint²⁵ to a saunter. “Prices can’t just keep going up, up, up on this steep climb,” said Pamela Liebman, the chief executive officer of Corcoran. “Buyers get a little fatigued²⁶.”

对于购房者，也不都是坏消息：房价明年（2015年——译注）仍将上涨，但步伐可能会从飙涨趋于平缓。“房价不会一味地陡然上涨，”柯克兰集团(Corcoran)的首席执行官帕梅拉·利伯曼(Pamela Liebman)说，“买家都有点疲劳了。”

Buyers looking for new construction will have more options next year, as the number of new condos hitting the market in Manhattan, Brooklyn and Long Island City, Queens, is expected to more than double to 8,366 from 3,444 in 2014, according to data provided by Corcoran Sunshine Marketing²⁷ Group.

明年，寻找新楼盘的买家将会有更多的选择。根据科克伦阳光营销集团(Corcoran Sunshine Marketing Group)提供的数据，明年（2015年——译注）曼哈顿、布鲁克林和皇后区长岛市(Long Island City)新上市的共管公寓预计将增加一倍以上，从2014年的3444套增加到8366套。

But a quick look at the changing skyline betrays a frustrating²⁸ reality: Those shiny new towers have failed to deliver the type of housing most New Yorkers can afford. “There is a disconnect between what we’re building and what we need to build,” said Jonathan J. Miller²⁹, the president of the appraisal³⁰ firm Miller Samuel. “2015 is going to be more of that.”

但是，只要快速扫一眼日益变化的天际线，我们就能发现一个令人沮丧的现实：那些光鲜亮丽的新大厦，未能提供大部分纽约人买得起的房型。“我们正在修建的房屋，跟我们需要修建的房屋之间存在着脱节，”房地产估值公司米勒·塞缪尔(Miller Samuel)的总裁乔纳森·J·米勒表示，“2015年，这一现象会更加明显。”

Homeowners in neighborhoods like the Grand Concourse in the Bronx or Elmhurst in Queens could enjoy new attention from buyers eager to find the next untapped market. “When have you heard talk about Kingsbridge in the Bronx?” asked Ms. Ramirez of Halstead. “The people who are smart are getting out there and buying it up at wonderful prices.”

布朗克斯大广场区或皇后区埃尔姆赫斯特(Elmhurst)的业主们，即将迎来急于寻找下一个未开发市场的买家们的新关注。“你什么时候听到别人谈论过布朗克斯的金斯布里奇(Kingsbridge)？”霍尔斯特德房地产公司的拉米雷斯问，“聪明人正在涌向那里，以实惠的价格买下房子。”

Renters

出租房

Here is a silver lining³¹: Market-rate rents are so high that they probably will not climb much higher next year. “The good news is rents aren’t rising anymore,” Mr. Miller said. “The bad news is they are probably not going to fall.”

下面这条消息，可以给人带来一线希望：市价房的租金太高了，它们明年可能涨不了多少。“好消息是，租金不会再涨了，”米勒说，“坏消息是，它们很可能也不会下降。”

New construction will provide luxury options for renters with deep pockets, mostly in the boroughs³² outside Manhattan. In Brooklyn, 6,527 new rental¹⁶ units are expected to hit the rental market next year, nearly twice the 3,802 units anticipated for Manhattan, according to Citi Habitats.

新建的房产将给那些财大气粗的租房者提供奢华的居住选择，它们大多位于曼哈顿以外的行政区。根据花旗居屋的数据，在布鲁克林，预计有6527个新的出租单元，将于明年（2015年——译注）投放租赁市场，比曼哈顿3802个单元多出近一倍。

One such development is 60 Water Street in Dumbo, a 290-unit rental with a 24-hour concierge³³ and a roof deck offering Manhattan views. Leasing begins next month, with rent for a two-bedroom starting at a jaw-dropping $6,018 a month. “People want that condo-like living, even though they’re renting and not owning,” said Jodi Ann Stasse, the managing director of new developments for Citi Habitats.

这类开发项目之一，是邓波区(Dumbo)的沃特街(Water Street)60号，一个包含290个单元的出租楼盘，带有24小时门房服务和一个可坐拥曼哈顿景观的屋顶平台。房屋租赁将于下个月开始，两居室的每月房租起价达到了令人瞠目结舌的6018美元（约合人民币3.7万元）。“人们想要体验住在共管公寓的生活，即使他们是租房而不是买房。”花旗居屋负责新开发项目的董事总经理乔迪·安·斯塔斯(Jodi Ann Stasse)说。

Meanwhile, New Yorkers living in the city’s nearly one million rent-stabilized apartments should brace for a fight in Albany in June, when the rent-stabilization³⁴ law expires. Housing advocates hope to see a reversal of a rule that allows landlords to deregulate vacant units if the rent reaches $2,500 a month.

与此同时，居住在近百万套租金管制型公寓里的纽约人应该准备好，于明年（2015年——译注）6月在奥尔巴尼放手一搏，那个时候，租金管制法就要到期了。保障房的倡导者们希望看到这样一项规定的撤销——该规定允许业主在租金达到每月2500美元（约合人民币1.6万元）的情况下，取消对空置单元的租金管制。

Over the past 20 years, at least 133,000 units in the city have gone market rate because of this rule, according to the Rent Guidelines Board. If the trend continues, rent stabilization could be further weakened, undermining Mayor de Blasio’s efforts to preserve affordable housing, say supporters of the policy.

根据租金指导委员会(Rent Guidelines Board)的数据，在过去20年里，纽约市至少有13.3万个单元因这项规定而变成市价房。政策的支持者表示，如果这一趋势持续下去，租金管制政策会被进一步削弱，从而对市长保留保障房的努力构成阻碍。

“This is our make or break moment for the tenant³⁵ movement,” said Ilana Maier, the program director for the Metropolitan³⁶ Council on Housing. “If we aren’t able to drastically strengthen the rules now, none of this will matter in 10 years.”

“这是我们租户运动生死攸关的时刻，”大都会住宅委员会(Metropolitan Council on Housing)的项目总监伊拉娜·迈尔(Ilana Maier)说，“如果我们现在不能大举强化规定，那么这些政策在十年内都发挥不了作用。”

But with a Republican-controlled State Senate, opponents of rent stabilization doubt that 2015 will be a watershed³⁷ year for the tenants³⁸’ movement. Sherwin Belkin, a lawyer who represents landlords, said: “Landlords view this as an opportunity to make some much-needed changes to rent regulation.”

但是，租金稳定政策的反对者怀疑，在共和党人把持州议会的情况下，2015年将不会是租户运动的分水岭。舍温·贝尔金(Sherwin Belkin)是一名代表业主利益的律师，他说：“业主们认为可以借此机会对租金管制政策做一些亟需的改变。”

One suggested change: require rent-stabilized tenants to verify their income.

其中一项被提议的改变是：要求租金管制型房屋的租户提供收入证明。

Airbnb Showdown

Airbnb的紧要关头

In New York it is illegal for anyone to rent out a room in an apartment in a multifamily building for less than 30 days if a tenant is not present. Yet almost weekly, someone writes to Ask Real Estate seeking advice on how to skirt the rules. What if I swap³⁹ apartments? What if nothing is in writing?

在纽约，任何人不得将多户建筑中的一套没有租户的公寓单间以短于30天的租期出租，这是非法的。然而，几乎每周都有人写信给“房地产答疑”专栏，咨询如何绕开这些规定。如果我交换公寓呢？如果没有书面形式的约定呢？

A reckoning could come next year as the state and city attempt a crackdown on renegade hoteliers while the online company Airbnb lobbies for a change to the law. “You are going to see an increased push to regulate this,” said Samuel J. Himmelstein, a lawyer who represents tenants.

由于州政府和市政府试图打击不法的旅馆经营者，明年可能会出台一项规定。而与此同时，房产租赁网站Airbnb将游说政府改变法规。“你会看到，规范这一市场的要求会变得更加迫切。”代表租户的律师塞缪尔·J·希莫尔斯泰因(Samuel J. Himmelstein)说。

Making Airbnb go away might not be so easy. A recent Quinnipiac poll found that 56 percent of the responders thought New Yorkers should be allowed to rent rooms out to strangers. “We don’t want to turn into hotels, but at the same time people want to rent out their apartments sometimes,” said Paul R. Gottsegen, the president of Halstead Management Company, which manages 250 residential⁴⁰ properties in the city.

要让Airbnb退市，可能没那么容易。最近，昆尼皮亚克大学(Quinnipiac)开展的一项民意调查表明，56％的受访者认为，应该允许纽约人将房间租给陌生人。“我们不想把房子变成旅馆，但是与此同时，人们有时会想把自己的公寓租出去。”霍尔斯特德管理公司(Halstead Management Company)的总裁保罗·R·戈特塞根(Paul R. Gottsegen)说。该公司打理着纽约市250处住宅物业。

Condos and co-ops have been laying down the law, writing warning memos⁴¹ and fining wayward residents. For renters, breaking the rules could jeopardize⁴² a lease. Condos are tightening⁴³ security, asking doormen to scrutinize⁴⁴ visitors and requiring residents to sign authorization⁴⁵ forms for guests. The practice has also raised insurance concerns.

共管公寓和合作公寓一直在严令整顿，编写警告备忘录，对违规居民罚款。对于租房者来说，打破规则就可能会危及租约。共管公寓正在加强安保措施，要求门卫仔细观察来访者，同时要求居民为来访的客人签署授权表格。这类操作还引起了保险界的关注。

“What happens if one of these Airbnb guests starts a fire?” asked Phyllis H. Weisberg, chairwoman of the Cooperative and Condominium Law Committee at the New York City Bar Association. “Who’s paying for that?”

“万一有个通过Airbnb投宿的客人放火了怎么办？”纽约市律师协会(New York City Bar Association)合作公寓和共管公寓法律委员会(Cooperative and Condominium Law Committee)的会长菲利丝·H·韦斯伯格(Phyllis H. Weisberg)问，“谁来赔偿损失？”

Nevertheless, as New Yorkers grow accustomed to a sharing economy, buildings might ultimately have to embrace it.

不过，随着纽约人日益习惯于共享经济，各处楼盘可能最终也不得不接受它。

“Airbnb is here to stay,” Mr. Gottsegen said. “Instead of fighting it, we should wrap our arms around it and make it better.”

“Airbnb将生存下去，”戈特塞根表示，“与其抗拒它，我们不如拥抱它、改善它。”

Co-ops and Condos

合作公寓和共管公寓

From maintenance to flip⁴⁶ taxes, condo and co-op owners often complain of boards bleeding them dry. Unfortunately, the cost of running a building will not get any cheaper anytime soon.

从物业费到倒卖税，共管公寓和合作公寓的业主经常抱怨，管委会要将他们榨干了。不幸的是，运营建筑的成本在短时期内不会下降分毫。

Over the next few years, large residential buildings will have to comply with Local Law 87, which requires them to audit⁴⁷ energy usage and keep systems running at peak efficiency. Residential buildings are the city’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions⁴⁸, accounting⁴⁹ for 37 percent of the total. “The one hot-button topic is energy. How do buildings become more energy efficient?” said Dan Wurtzel, the president of FirstService Residential New York, which manages more than 500 properties. “If a third of your operating budget is related to energy and you can now reduce that cost, you can take pressure off the need for a maintenance increase.”

在接下来几年里，大型住宅楼盘必须遵守第87号本地法(Local Law 87)——该法要求楼盘审核能源使用量，并保持系统以最高效率运行。住宅楼是纽约市最大的温室气体排放源，其排放量占总量的37%。“能源是一大热门话题。楼盘怎样提高能源效率？”管理着超过500处房产的FirstService Residential New York的总裁丹·沃泽尔(Dan Wurtzel)说，“如果运营预算的三分之一来自能源耗费，而现在你可以降低这块成本，那么上涨维护费的压力就减轻了。”

Complying with the law may prove challenging, even if improvements ultimately reduce long-term costs. In addition, 2015 is the deadline for buildings to convert from No. 6 heating oil to No. 4 oil, which is less polluting.

即便这些改进最终会降低长期成本，遵守这条法律可能还是颇具挑战性。此外，2015年是各楼盘停用6号取暖油、改用污染更少的4号油的最后期限。

“Who’s going to pay for that?” said Marc J. Luxemburg, the president of the Council of New York Cooperatives and Condominiums. “This has a real-world cost for many buildings.”

“谁来支付由此产生的成本呢？”纽约合作公寓和共管公寓委员会(Council of New York Cooperatives and Condominiums)的主席马克·J·卢森堡(Marc J. Luxemburg)表示，“这会给许多楼盘带来真真切切的成本。”

Although various public incentives⁵⁰ exist, many come in the form of tax breaks, low-interest loans or rebates⁵¹. So a building might have to levy⁵² an assessment⁵³ or raise maintenance to cover initial costs. “You run into the problem of nobody giving you the money upfront,” Mr. Luxemburg said.

虽然也有各种各样的政策鼓励，但许多会采取减免税务、低息贷款或退税的形式。因此，楼盘运营方或许将不得不从估价中征税，或增加维护费，以此打平楼盘运营的初始成本。“你会遇到没人为你提供前期资金的问题，”卢森堡说。

These are just some of the issues that will face New Yorkers next year. And then there’s the new drum set the neighbor’s son received for Christmas ...

这些，都只是纽约人2015年将会遇到的部分问题。而且，邻居家的儿子在圣诞节收到了新的爵士鼓，你又免不了要头疼了……