Growth in smartphone shipments is expected to slow substantially this year, as shipments to China, the world’s largest market for the devices, increase by just 1 per cent from last year.

由于发往中国的智能手机数量比去年只增长了1%，今年全球智能手机出货量增速预计会大幅放缓。目前，中国是智能手机的全球最大市场。

Worldwide, smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 10.4 per cent in 2015 to 1.44bn units, according to the International Data Corporation, falling from 27.5 per cent growth in 2014. IDC announced a cut in its forecast, which was previously¹ for a 11.3 per cent rise across the globe.

根据国际数据公司(IDC)的数据，在全球范围内，预计2015年智能手机出货量将增长10.4%，达到14.4亿部。这一增长幅度低于2014年的27.5%。而IDC曾宣布下调这一预计数字，此前该机构曾预测全球增长幅度为11.3%。

IDC forecasts a big drop in growth in China, which received almost a third of all new smartphone shipments in 2014, with an increase of only 1.2 per cent year-on-year in 2015, down from 19.7 per cent in 2014.

IDC预计，中国市场的增长幅度将大幅下滑，2015年同比增长幅度将只有1.2%，大大低于2014年的19.7%。2014年，全球新出货的智能手机曾有将近三分之一发往中国。

The widely followed forecasts were published a day after Tim Cook, Apple’s chief executive, insisted the iPhone maker² was experiencing “strong growth” in China throughout July and August.

就在这一广受关注的预期数字发布前一天，苹果(Apple)首席执行官蒂姆錠克(Tim Cook)曾坚称，在整个七月和八月，这家iPhone制造商曾在中国经历“强劲增长”。（《库克一封邮件为苹果挽回780亿美元市值》，FT中文网发表于2015年8月25日）

IDC does not break out an estimate for iPhone growth in China.

IDC并未公布对iPhone在华增长幅度的估计。

Ryan Reith, programme director at IDC, said domestic growth overall in smartphones in China was slowing “significantly”. China would remain the largest market for smartphone volumes for some time but its market share was expected to fall to 23.1 per cent in 2019, according to IDC.

IDC项目主任瑞安里思(Ryan Reith)表示，智能手机在中国国内的总体增长速度正在“显著”放缓。根据IDC的说法，中国在一段时间内还将是智能手机销量的第一大市场，不过它的市场份额预计会在2019年滑落至23.1%。

“India has captured a lot of the attention that China previously received and it’s now the market with the most potential upside,” he said. “The interesting thing to watch will be the possibility of manufacturing moving from China and Vietnam over to India.”

他说：“印度已将中国此前曾收到的许多注意力吸引过去。目前，印度是最具增长潜力的市场。而其中最值得关注的事情，将是制造业从中国和越南转移至印度的可能性。”

IDC forecast Android would maintain more than 80 per cent of the global market as far out as 2019, as the markets with the biggest growth opportunity remain “extremely price sensitive”.

IDC预计，远至2019年，Android仍将占据全球市场逾80%的份额，因为拥有最大增长机遇的市场仍“对价格极端敏感”。

“This isn’t to suggest that Apple’s success with the iPhone won’t continue, and IDC believes its efforts to maintain significantly higher margins³ compared to its competitors are much more valuable than chasing share,” the IDC report said.

IDC的报告表示：“这并不是说苹果在iPhone上取得的成功无法持续。而且，IDC相信，比起追求市场份额，苹果维持相对其对手高得多的利润率要更有价值。”

Larger smartphones — often dubbed⁴ “phablets” because they appear to be a cross between a phone and a tablet — are forecast to grow 84 per cent in 2015, compared with last year, after Apple delivered the larger iPhone 6+. These devices, with display screens from 5.5 to 6 inches, are forecast to make up more than 70 per cent of smartphone shipments by 2019.

在苹果发布屏幕更大的iPhone 6 Plus之后，2015年大屏手机预计会比去年增长84%。由于这种大屏手机似乎是介于手机和平板电脑之间的产品，它们往往被称为“平板手机”(phablet)。这类手机的显示屏在5.5英寸到6英寸之间，预计到2019年以前，它们会占智能手机出货量的超过70%。