全球气候变化谈判取得有限进展

The pledges that countries are making to battle climate change would still allow the world to heat up by more than 6 degrees Fahrenheit¹, a new analysis shows, a level that scientists say is likely to produce catastrophes² ranging from food shortages to widespread extinctions of plant and animal life.

一份新的分析报告显示，即使各国已做出对抗气候变化的承诺，也无法阻止全球平均温度上升逾6华氏度。科学家们表示，这个上升水平很可能会带来从粮食短缺到动植物大规模灭绝的种种灾难。

Yet, in the world of global climate politics, that counts as progress.

不过，在全球气候政治领域，这相当于进步。

The new figures will be released Monday in New York as a week of events related to climate change comes to an end. The highlight was an urgent moral appeal at the United Nations on Friday from Pope Francis, urging countries to reach “fundamental and effective agreements” when they meet in Paris in December to try to strike a new global climate deal.

随着为期一周的与气候变化有关的活动接近尾声，相关机构将在周一公布这些新数据。本轮气候活动的亮点在于，教皇方济各(Pope Francis)于周五在联合国发出了急迫的道德呼吁，敦促各个国家今年12月在巴黎召开会议尝试达成新的全球气候协议时，取得“根本性的有效共识”。

For much of this year, countries have been issuing pledges about how much emissions³ they are willing to cut in coming decades. With a plan announced by Brazil on Sunday, every major country except for India has now made a commitment to take to the Paris conference.

在今年的许多时间里，各个国家在就未来几十年愿意削减多少排放做出承诺。巴西在周日宣布了自身的计划，使得除了印度之外的大国均在巴黎会议之前给出了承诺。

An analysis by researchers at Climate Interactive⁴, a group whose calculations are used by American negotiators and by numerous other governments, is expected to be released Monday and was provided in advance to The New York Times. It shows that the collective pledges would reduce the warming of the planet at century’s end to about 6.3 degrees, if the national commitments are fully honored, from an expected 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit, if emissions continue on their present course.

气候互动组织(Climate Interactive)计划于周一发布旗下研究人员撰写的这份分析报告，而《纽约时报》提前获得了全文。美国谈判代表和很多其他国家的政府在使用该组织的预测数据。报告显示，如果排放保持目前的趋势，全球变暖的幅度会在本世纪末达到8.1华氏度（合4.5摄氏度），但如果各国恪守承诺，合起来会令这一数字降至6.3华氏度（合3.5摄氏度）。

That would be the biggest reduction in the history of global climate politics, and a sign that 20 years of disappointing negotiations⁵ may be giving way to an era when countries start to move the needle on the projected global temperature.

这将是全球气候政治历史上最大的降幅，标志着20年来令人失望的谈判可能会被另一个时代替代——各国开始在预期的全球气温变化上造成可见的影响。

Yet the analysis also shows that the nations are still a far way from meeting their own shared target, set in 2010, of limiting global warming to about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. That level of warming, while potentially producing dire⁶ effects on agriculture, sea level and the natural world, might at least be tolerable, some experts believe.

但这项报告也显示，这些国家距离他们在2010年设定的共同目标还非常远，即将全球变暖幅度控制在约3.6华氏度（约合2摄氏度）。一些专家认为，这种程度的温度增长，尽管还是会给农业发展、海平面和自然界产生严重影响，但至少在可接受的范围内。

The pledges countries have made “are a big step forward, but not sufficient — not even close,” said John D. Sterman, a professor of management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Climate Interactive, a Washington organization with extensive ties to M.I.T., receives foundation money to build tools that help governments and the public understand climate policy.

那些作出承诺的国家已经“向前迈进了一大步，但这还不够，远远不够，”麻省理工学院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)管理学教授约翰·D·斯特曼(John D. Sterman)说。一家与麻省理工学院有广泛联系的华盛顿机构“气候互动”(Climate Interactive)获得了来自基金会的资金，以研发可以帮助政府和公众了解气候政策的工具。

Making any serious pledge has been a political challenge in many countries, including the United States, where President Obama has encountered vociferous⁷ opposition⁸ in Congress. Governments are unlikely to want to reopen those fights in the remaining two months before the Paris talks. Thus, many analysts⁹ expect that any final deal struck in Paris will probably not be enough to forestall¹⁰ dangerous levels of global warming.

在很多国家，做出严肃的承诺一直都是个政治难题。美国也是这样，奥巴马总统就在国会遭遇了激烈的反对。距离巴黎会议的举行还有两个月，各国政府不会想在这段时间里重新挑起这类争执。所以，很多分析师预测，巴黎会议上最后达成的任何协议可能都不足以提前阻止全球变暖达到危险的程度。

“Everyone is now convinced there will be agreement in Paris,” President Fran漀椀猀 Hollande of France said Sunday afternoon at the United Nations. “But the question is, what kind of agreement?”

“所有人现在都确信，巴黎会议会达成一项协议，”法国总统弗朗索瓦·奥朗德(Fran漀椀猀 Hollande)周日下午在联合国讲道。“但问题是，什么样的协议呢？”

Despite the uncertainty¹¹, optimism is growing among some diplomats¹² and scientists that progress has become possible. Intensive engagement between China and the United States over the past two years helped break the logjam in global climate politics, and for the first time, virtually every country is now offering to pitch in to help limit emissions growth.

尽管有这样的不确定性，但有可能取得进展的乐观情绪还是在一些外交官和科学家中日渐增长。过去两年，中美之间的密集接触帮助打破了全球气候政治中的僵局，第一次出现基本上每个国家都愿意参与和帮助限制排放增长的局面。

Janos Pasztor, United Nations assistant secretary general for climate change, said the task in Paris would be to put mechanisms¹³ into the deal to encourage countries to ramp¹⁴ up their ambitions over time. Requirements for periodic reviews and fresh pledges are under discussion as a potential part of the agreement.

联合国负责气候变化问题的助理秘书长的扎诺斯·帕兹尔(Janos Pasztor)表示，巴黎会议的任务是为将要达成的协议设定机制，以鼓励各个国家在以后随着时间推移进一步提高本国的限排目标。定期检查和更新承诺的要求已经纳入讨论，有可能成为一项协议内容。

At a luncheon¹⁵ that the United Nations secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, hosted for dozens of world leaders on Sunday, the heads of state and government “agreed that Paris must be the floor, not the ceiling, for collective ambition,” Mr. Ban said afterward¹⁶.

周日，在联合国秘书长潘基文(Ban Ki-moon)为几十位国家领导人举行的午宴上，各国元首和政府首脑“一致同意，巴黎会议上的协定一定得是各国都能达成的基础目标，而不是上限，”潘基文在午宴之后说道。

Gavin A. Schmidt, head of the NASA unit in Manhattan that studies climate change, said that the history of environmental cleanup suggested that once countries got started on the problem, they would discover that solving it was cheaper and easier than expected.

位于曼哈顿、研究气候变化的美国宇航局(NASA )分支机构的负责人加文·A·施密特(Gavin A. Schmidt)表示，环境净化的历史显示，一旦各个国家开始致力解决这一问题，就会发现，解决它比想象得要容易，成本也没那么高。

“By the time people get 10, 15 years of actually trying to do something, that’s going to lead to greater expertise¹⁷, better technology, more experience,” Dr. Schmidt said. “People will then say, ‘Oh, you know what? We can commit to do more.’ ”

“等到人们真的开始努力做这件事10年、15年之后，会出现更好的专业知识和技术，经验也更加丰富，”施密特博士说。“那时人们会说，‘嘿，你知道吗？我们可以作出更大的承诺。’”

The planet has already warmed by about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit above the temperature that prevailed before the Industrial Revolution, representing an enormous addition of heat. Virtually every piece of land ice on Earth is melting, the sea ice in the Arctic is collapsing¹⁸, droughts and other weather extremes are intensifying¹⁹, and the global food system has shown signs of instability.

相比于工业革命以前，我们这个星球的整体温度已经增加了约1.5华氏度（合0.8摄氏度），这代表着额外增加了庞大的热量。地球上每一块岸冰基本上都在消融，北极的海冰正在破裂，干旱和其他极端天气问题也在加重，全球粮食体系已经显示出不稳定的迹象。

At a meeting in Cancun, Mexico, in 2010, climate negotiators from nearly 200 countries agreed that they would try to limit the warming to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, or 2 degrees Celsius²⁰, above the preindustrial temperature, a level that would require that emissions from fossil fuels largely cease within a few decades.

2010年，在墨西哥坎昆举行的一个会议上，来自将近两百个国家的气候问题谈判代表表示，他们同意尽力将气候变暖控制在高出工业革命前全球温度3.6华氏度(合2摄氏度)的程度。而要想实现这一点，将需要在几十年内大致消除矿物燃料类排放。

Subsequently, recognizing that many governments were reluctant to agree to binding²¹ limits, the diplomats essentially²² asked each country to volunteer its best efforts. That decision, controversial at the time, has unlocked a willingness by many nations to participate, including countries like China that had long resisted climate deals.

随后，因为意识到很多国家不愿接受有约束力的排放限制，外交官们基本上只是要求每个国家主动提出自己能实现的最高目标。这一决策在当时存在争议，但却解决了很多国家不愿意参与的问题，其中就包括中国等长期对任何气候协议抱有抵制情绪的国家。

India is the biggest holdout so far, but that nation’s environment minister, Prakash Javadekar, said in an interview in New York on Sunday that a plan would be submitted to the United Nations on Oct. 1, the eve of the national celebration of Mahatma Gandhi’s birthday — apparently²³ an effort to limit domestic criticism that India is bowing to Western pressure. The plan is not expected to include a target year for India’s emissions to peak, but will be “anchored” by a major commitment to renewable energy, Mr. Javadekar said.

目前，态度最消极的国家是印度，但印度环境部长普拉卡什·雅瓦德卡尔(Prakash Javadekar)在周日接受纽约时报采访时表示，印度会在十月一日向联合国提交一份计划。那时正值印度举国庆祝圣雄甘地(Mahatma Gandhi)诞辰的前夕，选择这时间点似乎是为减少印度民众批评政府向西方社会压力低头的可能性。外界预测，这一计划不会包含在某一目标年份达到印度最高排放量的内容，但雅瓦德卡尔说，它“肯定会”包含有关使用再生能源的重要承诺。

Last week, China announced plans for a nationwide system that would put a price on emissions of greenhouse gases. Brazil became the latest major country to pledge action, on Sunday, with a plan that makes it the first large developing nation to offer an absolute cut in emissions over the next decade, instead of just restraints on continued growth. Brazil also committed to ending illegal deforestation and to restoring millions of acres of degraded forest.

中国上周宣布计划，要建立一个全国性系统，对温室气体的排放定价。巴西则在周日成为最新一个承诺采取行动的主要国家。巴西的计划让它成了首个表示要让未来十年的排放绝对减少，而不只是对持续增长设限的大型发展中国家。巴西还承诺终结森林的非法砍伐，并让数以百万亩计的退化森林恢复健康。

Bruising²⁴ fights are still expected at the Paris conference, especially over money. Poor countries that have had little to do with causing global warming, but are likely to suffer the worst effects, are demanding billions from rich countries to help them manage.

巴黎的会议上预计依然会出现激烈的争吵，特别是围绕资金。贫困国家几乎和全球变暖的成因毫不相干，但受到的影响却可能是最严重的。这些国家要求富裕国家提供数十亿资金，以帮助它们应对影响。

Moreover, protests are expected from advocacy groups, island countries threatened with inundation²⁵, and many others over the perceived inadequacy²⁶ of the deal. At a minimum, these groups are likely to demand strong procedures for ratcheting up national commitments over time.

此外，倡导团体、面临被淹没威胁的岛国和其他很多人预计会为他们眼中协议的不足之处而进行抗议。至少，这些团体可能会要求采取强有力的步骤，以便随着时间的推移而加强各国的承诺。

“No one doubts that coming out of Paris, there’s going to be an ambition gap on the table,” said Alden Meyer, who follows climate negotiations for the Union of Concerned Scientists, in Washington. “The question is going to be, what prospect²⁷ do we have to shrink it, and how quickly?”

“没人怀疑巴黎会议结束后，谈判桌上会出现目标上的差异，”忧思科学家联盟(Union of Concerned Scientists)关注气候谈判的奥尔登·迈耶(Alden Meyer)在华盛顿说。“问题将是我们的减排前景是什么，以及速度是多快？”