The renminbi slipped to a fresh four-year low against the US dollar in its first day of onshore trading since the People’s Bank of China said it would measure the exchange rate against a broader basket of currencies.

在中国央行(PBoC)表示将针对一篮子货币观察人民币汇率后的头一个交易日，人民币兑美元汇率在中国国内市场的交易中滑落至新的四年内低点。

China’s central bank introduced the trade-weighted basket, in which the dollar accounts for 26.4 per cent and the euro 21.4 per cent, late on Friday. The offshore¹ renminbi promptly² dropped 0.5 per cent in London trading, pushing the currency to Rmb6.5577 against the dollar, a four-year low.

周五晚些时候，中国央行引入了按交易加权的货币篮子，其中美元所占权重为26.4%，欧元权重为21.4%。消息传来，伦敦市场交易的离岸人民币汇率迅速跌落0.5%，跌至1美元兑6.5577元人民币的四年内低点。

The PBoC’s management of the renminbi has been under scrutiny³ since August, when a botched 3 per cent devaluation sent shockwaves through world markets and prompted the Federal Reserve to hold off on an expected increase in US interest rates in September.

今年8月，人民币曾突然贬值3%，引发的冲击波传遍了全球市场，并促使美联储推迟了9月份预期中的加息。自那时以来，中国央行对人民币汇率的管理一直受到人们的密切关注。

Friday’s move, coming less than a week before the Fed is expected to raise rates for the first time in nine years, was interpreted as part of a broader effort by the PBoC to be more transparent⁴.

而周五的举措则出现在美联储预期加息时间点之前不到一周，这次加息将是美联储9年内首次加息。中国央行此举被解释为提高透明度的更大层面努力的一部分。

“We believe that it does not equate⁵ to an explicit⁶ shift to targeting the renminbi against a basket of currencies,” said Claudio Piron, emerging Asia strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “The tone of their statement, instead, suggests to us they are trying to shift the market’s heavy focus away from the bilateral⁷ rate to several basket measures.”

美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)新兴市场亚洲策略师克劳迪奥皮龙(Claudio Piron)表示：“我们认为，此举并不等于要明确转向将人民币汇率与一篮子货币挂钩。相反，他们声明的语气暗示我们，他们试图将市场对双边利率机制的过度关注转移开来，转向几种货币篮子考察机制。”

On Monday the PBoC set the daily “fix” against the dollar at Rmb6.4495, down 0.21 per cent from Friday’s rate and a four-year low. It was the sixth successive day that Beijing has set a weaker reference rate.

周一，中国央行将人民币兑美元每日汇率中间价定为1美元兑6.4495元人民币，比周五的汇率低了0.21%，是四年来的最低点。这是中国政府连续第六天降低参考汇率。

The onshore rate is permitted to trade up to 2 per cent either side of that midpoint.

目前，中国国内市场的人民币汇率允许在该中间价上下各2%的范围内波动。

The offshore rate, which has no such restrictions⁸, was at Rmb6.5491 per dollar, having weakened in early trading after a late recovery on Friday.

离岸市场则没有这种限制，在经历周五尾盘时的反弹之后，离岸人民币汇率在早盘时已经下跌，至1美元兑6.5491元人民币。

The spread between the two has risen in recent weeks, indicating investors⁹ are betting on further weakness ahead.

最近几周，两者之间的差距已经拉大，表明投资者正押注于人民币会进一步疲软。

The dollar was involved with 95 per cent of all onshore foreign exchange transactions last year, according to CICC, but the growing divergence¹⁰ between monetary¹¹ policy in the world’s major economies has increased the difficulty for China in managing its currency.

根据中国国际金融有限公司(CICC,简称中金)的数据，去年美元涉及所有中国国内市场外汇交易的95%。不过，全球主要经济体的货币政策之间的分歧不断增大，加大了中国管理人民币汇率的难度。

Even as markets brace¹² for higher US interest rates, policy in China, Europe and Japan is still expected to be eased further.

尽管市场已准备好迎接美国提高利率，中国、欧洲和日本预计仍会采取进一步的宽松政策。

Xiangrong Yu, strategist at CICC, said the introduction of a basket was “a necessary result of the divergence between the economies” and would allow the PBoC to better frame its communication with the markets.

中金公司策略师余向荣表示，货币篮子的引入是“各经济体间分歧的必然结果”，它将令央行能更好地规划与市场的沟通。

Other countries in Asia are closely watching what happens with the renminbi for fear its weaker path could erode¹³ their competitiveness, even though the currency’s still-close links with its US counterpart mean China has not benefited from an export boost as the dollar has rallied this year.

亚洲其他国家正密切关注人民币的动向，以防其走弱行情侵蚀它们的竞争力——尽管由于今年美元已经走强，人民币与美元间仍十分密切的关系意味着中国并未享受到提振出口的好处。