If you want to break the ice at a corporate¹ seasonal² party in America these days, try popping this revealing question: which part of the US has the highest proportion of entrepreneurship?

如果你想在最近美国某个企业的季节性派对上打破冷场局面，可以试着问一下这个会暴露真相的问题：美国哪里的创业人士比例最高？

“Silicon³ Valley” would be a predictable, and understandable, answer. After all, in recent years, the San Francisco region has been an epicentre of US innovation. Mark Zuckerberg, the founder⁴ of Facebook, seems to epitomise the entrepreneurial dream; particularly since his recent announcement that he plans to donate most of his largesse⁵ to social causes.

“硅谷”或许是可以预料也可以理解的答案。毕竟，最近几年这个旧金山地区已成为美国创新的核心地带。Facebook创始人马克丠克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)似乎是创业梦的象征——尤其是自从他最近宣布计划捐出多数财产用于社会慈善事业以来。

But here is a curious little detail of America’s economy today: if you want to understand the real nature of entrepreneurial activity, do not look to Silicon Valley or Mr Zuckerberg. The biggest hotbed of urban entrepreneurship, as measured by the number of small companies per head, is now New York, not the West Coast, according to research by the Kauffman Foundation, a think-tank. Boston sits in second place in terms of “entrepreneurship”, followed by Providence⁶, Rhode Island. Meanwhile, San Francisco is fourth, just ahead of Miami in Florida and Portland in Oregon. Main Street is giving the Valley more than a run for its money.

不过，今天的美国经济中却存在一个奇怪的细节：如果你想了解创业活动的真正特点，不要把眼光放在硅谷或扎克伯格身上。根据智库考夫曼基金会(Kauffman Foundation)的研究，以人均小企业数计算，如今城市创业的最大温床是纽约而不是西海岸。以“创业”而言，波士顿位居第二位，排在其后的是罗得岛州的普罗维登斯。同时，旧金山排在第四位，在佛罗里达州的迈阿密和俄勒冈州的波特兰之前。纽约缅街(Main Street)正向硅谷发起严峻挑战。

Geography is not the only surprise. The word “start-up” tends to conjure⁷ up images of baby-faced, hoody-wearing youngsters such as Mr Zuckerberg. But the Kauffman data suggest that the average age of entrepreneurs and small business owners is far higher — and rising. People aged 45-54 now own 32 per cent of small businesses, the engines of economic activity and job creation.

地理位置不是唯一令人惊异之处。“初创”一词往往会让人头脑中浮现出像扎克伯格这样一脸稚气、身穿连帽衫的年轻人形象。然而考夫曼基金会的数据却显示，创业者和小企业主的平均年龄不仅要高得多，而且还在不断上升。32%的小企业由年龄在45岁到54岁之间的人士持有，而小企业正是经济活动和创造就业的发动机。

These middle-aged⁸ entrepreneurs are the biggest single cohort among business owners. Those following on behind, the 20-34 year olds — Mr Zuckerberg’s cohort — own just 16 per cent of small businesses, down from 28 per cent when the series started in 1997. Start-up activity among the younger cohort is also falling, as it increases among the middle aged. Meanwhile, the educational qualifications of entrepreneurs is rising: a majority now hold a graduate degree. And immigrants now own 20 per cent of all small businesses, twice the level in 1997.

这些中年创业者是企业主中最大的群体。相比之下，跟随其后的20到34岁群体（扎克伯格所在的群体）只拥有16%的小企业，大大低于1997年该系列调查开始时28%的比例。较年轻群体的创业活动也在减少，而中年人创业活动却在增加。与此同时，创业者的受教育程度也在上升：如今多数人拥有研究生学位。此外，目前外来移民持有所有小企业中的20%，是1997年的两倍。

What accounts for these trends? Data on small business activity in general — and entrepreneurship in particular — are notoriously patchy. However, Kauffman suggests that the heavy burden of 猀琀甀搀攀渀琀 debt may be deterring⁹ young people from becoming entrepreneurs. The broader ageing of the American population is also affecting the 猀琀愀琀椀猀琀椀挀猀.

对于这些趋势应该如何解释？有关总体的小企业活动的数据（尤其是有关创业活动的数据）是出了名地东拼西凑。不过，考夫曼基金会表示，学生债务的沉重负担也许正在妨碍年轻人走上创业道路。从更大的层面上说，美国人口的老化也在影响这一统计结果。

The more intriguing¹⁰ issue is whether the pattern of older entrepreneurs also reflects the changing profile of work. Digitisation is wiping out swaths of once-secure middle-class corporate jobs, tossing out middle-aged employees; indeed, the Oxford¹¹ Martin school of business forecasts that half of all US jobs will be replaced by robots in the next two decades. Americans are living longer and their pension provision is shrinking. Some of this middle-aged entrepreneurial activity, in other words, is probably sparked by necessity as much as by active choice — a consequence¹² of economic insecurity as well as economic freedom.

更有趣的问题是，创业者的高龄化趋势是否也反映了就业模式的变化。数字化正在导致大量曾经很稳定的中产阶级企业工作岗位消失，将中年员工抛出企业。事实上，牛津大学马丁学院(Oxford Martin School)预计，在今后20年内，美国半数工作岗位将由机器人取代。美国人的寿命正在增加，他们的养老金却在缩水。换句话说，这种中年创业活动的一部分既可能是自主选择，也可能是迫不得已——这不仅是经济自由的结果，同样也是经济不稳定的结果。

That, in turn, may have bigger policy implications, particularly given the 爀椀猀椀渀最 level of income inequality. One encouraging piece of news in the data is that overall entrepreneurship rose last year, after declining during the

反过来说，这也许会带来更大的政策上的启示——尤其是考虑到收入不平等的不断加剧。在这些数据中，一个令人鼓舞的消息是，在经历了金融危机期间的下滑之后，去年创业活动总体增加了。但是，它依然低于几十年前的水平。不过，目前美国政策制定者有许多办法可以提高创业活动的水平。

Great Financial Crisis. But it remains¹³ below the levels seen a couple of decades ago. There is a great deal that Amer-ican 瀀漀氀椀挀礀洀愀欀攀爀猀 could do now, however, to raise those entrepreneurship levels.

不应该仅仅谈及减轻大企业的税负（这正是华盛顿争论集中的领域），而应该将更多努力用于精简美国噩梦般复杂的小企业税法。医疗保险的提供也应该简化。此外，小企业还需要有更多融资渠道，尤其是因为，2008年后金融改革导致的一个非常不幸的后果是，银行如今非常不愿意为规模较小的企业提供资金。

Instead of just talking about lowering taxes for big corporations (which is where the debate is focused in Washington), there should be more effort made to streamline¹⁴ America’s nightmarishly complex small business tax code. Healthcare provision should also be simplified. Small business also requires a wider range of financing channels, particularly since one very unfortunate consequence of the post-2008 financial reforms is that banks are now very unwilling¹⁵ to provide funding for smaller companies.

此外，文化上的变革也是必要的。最值得注意的是，美国政策制定者（和选民）需要认识到，不是今天所有成功的创业者都穿着连帽衫，或者沐浴在加利福尼亚州的阳光下。相反，多数人不是这样。为应对传统企业岗位的消失或中产阶级分崩离析的诅咒，想办法提倡和支持较年长的群体创业也将是关键的一步。这也会让经济更加健康，季节性派对的气氛更加轻松愉快。