China’s construction equipment makers² are ramping³ up the competition against global leaders such as Caterpillar⁴, Komatsu and Deere and appear set to discount products to build market share, a new study has found.

一份新的研究报告显示，中国建筑设备制造商正在加大与卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)、小松(Komatsu)和迪尔(Deere)等全球领军者的竞争，而且似乎打算通过低价来抢占市场份额。

The Chinese companies — which include Sany, Zoomlion and XCMG — are likely to boost their market share outside China to around 15 per cent by 2025, up from an estimated 7 per cent currently (see chart), according to research by UBS Evidence Lab, which surveyed about 15,000 construction equipment dealerships around the world.

UBS Evidence Lab的研究显示，到2025年，包括三一重工(Sany Heavy)、中联重科(Zoomlion)和徐工机械(XCMG)在内的中国公司在海外占有的市场份额可能将提高至15%左右，超过当前估计的7%（见图表）。UBS Evidence Lab对世界各地的约1.5万家建筑设备经销商进行了调查。

“We think the Chinese are making moves to expand further into the west and we think they have a very good chance to take market share, if they are fully committed to doing so,” said Steven Fisher, UBS analyst⁶.

瑞银(UBS)分析师史蒂文•费希尔(Steven Fisher)表示：“我们认为中国人正在采取行动，向西方市场进一步扩张，我们认为如果它们全力以赴的话，它们很可能可以抢占市场份额。”

He said that the biggest competitive advantage of the Chinese companies was a relatively⁷ low cost base that allowed them to offer discounts in the region of 15 to 40 per cent to equivalent premium⁸ brand equipment.

他说，中国公司最大的竞争优势在于相对较低的成本，这让它们能够在西方市场上提供比高端品牌相同配置产品低15%至40%的价格。

This will allow them to take market share in Europe and the US, where the presence of Chinese brands in dealerships remains⁹ fairly scarce. The biggest operational challenge for the Chinese, Mr Fisher said, lies in providing aftersales support to dealerships, especially by ensuring that spare parts are supplied quickly and in sufficient quantity.

这将让它们能够在欧洲和美国抢占市场份额——目前在欧美，中国品牌在经销商处仍然比较少见。费舍尔表示，中国人面临的最大的运营挑战在于为经销商提供售后支持，尤其是确保能够迅速地供应足够多配件。

“We don’t generally assume that Chinese products are going head to head with Caterpillar and Deere,” Mr Fisher added. “But our point is that a discount on a base level product can end up applying pressure further up the chain.”

费舍尔补充称：“总体而言，我们不认为中国产品会与卡特彼勒和迪尔正面竞争，但我们认为，基础级产品的较低价格可能最终对更高端产品构成压力。”

The UBS Evidence Lab found in its survey of the 15,000 dealerships that Chinese manufacturers “have increased interest in expanding more aggressively” and — if they maintain this — may be able to scoop¹⁰ up about 1 per cent in market share outside China per year over the next decade.

UBS Evidence Lab在对1.5万家经销商调查后发现，中国制造商“对实施更激进的扩张产生了更浓厚的兴趣”，如果它们保持这种兴趣的话，今后十年就可能每年在海外抢占大约1%的市场份额。

The effect of this would be a reduction in the available profit pool for western giants such as Caterpillar, Metso, Komatsu, Sandvik, Volvo, Deere, Terex and others, the UBS research report said.

瑞银的研究报告显示，随之而来的影响将是卡特彼勒、美卓公司(Metso)、小松、山特维克(Sandvik)、沃尔沃(Volvo)、迪尔、特雷克斯(Terex)等西方巨头的利润被分走一杯羹。

However, the challenges before the Chinese companies in terms of market dynamics¹¹ appear considerable. In the US, for instance, Chinese brands had only a 3.7 per cent presence in the dealerships surveyed (see map), defining a struggle for brand recognition. “Presence” in the survey was measured by the proportion of points of sale for Chinese brands versus¹² other brands sold in dealerships.

然而，就市场情况来看，中国公司面临的挑战似乎非常大。例如，在美国，中国品牌在受访经销商中只有3.7%的“存在感”，表明品牌认知度非常低。调查中的“存在感”是通过中国品牌销售点所占比例来衡量的，与其形成对照的是经销商处销售的其他品牌销售点所占比例。

In emerging markets, though, the Chinese firms have made greater inroads, buoyed¹³ by infrastructure¹⁴ projects financed through Chinese financial institutions. In Kazakhstan, Chinese construction equipment brands had a presence in 42 per cent of dealerships, an 11 per cent footprint in Brazil, a 24 per cent presence in Russia, and in Iran — where business by European and US corporations has been limited by sanctions — Chinese equipment was on sale in 92 per cent of dealerships.

然而，在新兴市场，得益于中国金融机构提供融资的基础设施项目，中国公司取得了更大的进展。在哈萨克斯坦，中国建筑设备品牌在42%的经销商中有售，这个数字在巴西是11%，在俄罗斯是24%，在欧美企业因制裁而业务受限的伊朗，这个数字达到92%。

The lending firepower of China’s two policy banks — the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China — is likely to enhance the prospect¹⁵ of contracts for Chinese construction equipment makers in coming years. The two banks already lend almost as much as the six western-backed multilateral development institutions put together.

中国两家政策银行——国家开发银行(China Development Bank)和中国进出口银行(Export-Import Bank of China)充足的放贷能力，可能改善了中国建筑设备制造商今后数年签署合同的前景。这两家银行发放的贷款已经几乎相当于6家西方支持的多边发展机构发放的贷款总和。

However, the Chinese companies tend to be more heavily mired¹⁶ in debt. Zoomlion is the most egregious¹⁷, with a total debt to ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation¹⁸ and amortisation) multiple of 21, while XCMG and Sany have multiples of 15.3 and 8.1 respectively. Caterpillar and Komatsu are considerably¹⁹ lower, while Deere has a multiple of 10.9.

然而，中国公司背负的债务往往更重。中联重科是最突出的，其债务总额为息税折旧及摊销前利润(EBITDA)的21倍，徐工和三一的这个数字则分别为15.3倍和8.1倍。卡特彼勒和小松的这个数字要低得多，迪尔的这个数字则为10.9倍。

But in spite of the heavy debt loads carried by Chinese companies, their appetite for overseas acquisitions appears to have remained undiminished. Zoomlion made a cash bid for Terex, the US company, earlier this year, though the result of that overture²⁰ is still uncertain.

尽管中国公司背负巨额债务，但它们对海外收购的兴趣依然不减。中联重科今年年初对美国公司特雷克斯(Terex)发出现金收购要约，尽管现在结果仍不确定。

LiuGong, a Chinese machinery²¹ maker¹ with a debt multiple of 16, has made no secret of its intent to boost overseas revenues to 50 per cent by 2020, up from 35 per cent of total revenues now, UBS said. Sany, for its part, announced this year that it had acquired another US-based dealer⁵ for earth movers, calling it part of an “aggressive” expansion of the company’s earth moving dealer network.

瑞银表示，中国机械制造商柳工(LiuGong)毫不掩饰其这一打算，即在2020年年底前，将海外收入占公司总收入的比例从目前的35%提高至50%（该公司的债务为EBITDA的16倍）。三一今年则宣布，它收购了另一家总部位于美国的推土机经销商。该公司称，此举为“大胆”扩张其推土机经销商网络的一部分。