There are few surer financial warnings than Stephen Schwarzman, co-founder of the private equity¹ group Blackstone, throwing a big party. His 60th birthday celebration a decade ago marked the pre-crisis peak for the industry, so the 70th he held last month in Palm Beach, Florida, featuring fireworks, camels, and a cake in the shape of a Chinese temple, is worrying.

再没有比私人股本集团黑石(Blackstone)联合创始人苏世民(Stephen Schwarzman)举办的大派对更明确的金融警告了。10年前，他的60岁生日庆祝会标志着危机之前私人股本行业的顶峰，所以上个月他在弗罗里达州棕榈海滩(Palm Beach)举办的70岁生日庆祝会——有烟火、骆驼、中国寺庙形状的蛋糕——也就令人担忧了。

Private equity entered a slump² after his 2007 party, with the huge debt-financed deals struck at the peak looking stupid with hindsight. Ten years later, it is doing extremely well for itself.

2007年庆祝会之后，私人股本行业进入了一段低迷期，回想起来，之前巅峰时期靠着巨额债务融资达成的交易看起来很愚蠢。10年后，这个行业本身过得很不错。

As hedge funds stumble and public stock markets are increasingly dominated by passive index funds, veterans such as Mr Schwarzman and Leon Black of Apollo are masters of thei universe.

如今对冲基金步履蹒跚，公共股票市场日益由被动指数基金主导，目前苏世民和Apollo的里昂?布莱克(Leon Black)等老手俨然成了“宇宙主宰”。

It is a safe bet that this will not last, since it never has before. The global industry gathers every year at a conference called SuperReturn, held in Berlin this week.

我们可以放心地押注这一局面将不会持续下去，因为以前也从来没有过。全球私人股本行业的人士每年都会聚集在一起，举行“超级回报”(Super Return)大会。上周，今年的会议在柏林举行。

The name is not always merited but this year’s resembles a crowded party that could erupt at any moment. Cocky financiers in expensive suits, intoxicated³ by cheap credit and high dividends⁴? Run for the exits.

超级回报并非总是理所当然的，但今年的聚会就像是一个拥挤的派对，可能随时挤爆。身着华服、趾高气昂的金融家们，在廉价信贷和高股息中陶醉？跑向出口吧。

Even this was bearable until Mr Black took to the SuperReturn stage on Monday to declare that, although a correction was probably imminent⁵, it could be postponed⁶ by Donald Trump’s pledge of a “revved⁷ up” US economy.

甚至这也是可以忍受的，直到布莱克登上超级回报大会的舞台宣布，尽管一场调整很可能迫在眉睫，但唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)有关“振兴”美国经济的承诺，可能会延缓这场调整。

That could unleash⁸ a further three years of “turbocharged” growth for leveraged¹⁰ buyouts backed by the $820bn of capital yet to be invested. Then I really got nervous.

这可能为杠杆收购带来又三年的“涡轮增压”增长——在尚待投入的8200亿美元支持下。那么，我真的紧张了。

Private equity’s problem is not that it is suffering but the opposite: it has recovered so fully that it is flush with money. As it sells the businesses it bought a few years ago, many at a high profit, and returns cash to the pension funds and institutions that invest through it, more is arriving. This is a very good period to be selling assets but a hard one to find a bargain.

私人股本行业的问题，不是它处于煎熬之中，而是相反：它已经彻底复苏了，资金非常充沛。由于卖掉了几年前收购的企业（许多情况下是以高利润卖出），并把资金返还给通过它们进行投资的养老基金和机构，更多资金正在到来。现在是出售资产的好时期，却是物色便宜资产的困难时期。

The industry should still have advantages even in these heady times. Compared with hedge funds, which also charge stiff fees to invest other people’s money, it has performed well.

即使在这些头脑过热的时代，私人股本行业也应当仍有优势。与同样收取高昂费用帮人投资的对冲基金相比，私人股本公司的表现很不错。

Warren Buffett wrote harshly of hedge fund managers in his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway investors¹², but has partnered with 3G Capital, the Brazilian-led private equity firm.

在每年一度写给伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)投资者的信中，沃伦?巴菲特(Warren Buffett)严厉地批评了对冲基金经理，但与巴西私人股本公司3G资本(3G Capital)站到了同一阵营。

The classic private equity deal is to borrow money to buy a medium-sized company that is in decent shape but has potential to grow or become more efficient. A fund often puts in new managers, allocating¹³ them a hefty incentive¹⁴ to improve the business — private equity chief executives get an average 8 per cent stake, according to one study. It then sells at a higher price five years later.

经典的私人股本交易，是借钱购买一个中等规模、经营状况不错、有扩大规模或提高效率的潜力的企业。私人股本基金通常安排新的高管进入企业，并为他们提供改善业绩的重大激励——一项研究显示，私人股本基金的首席执行官平均取得被投资企业8%的股权。5年后，基金以更高价格把企业卖掉。

Having the luxury of privacy and time — not having to worry about quarterly results or investors demanding their money back — helps investments thrive.

在隐私和时间方面拥有难得的优势——不必担心季度业绩或投资者要求返还资金——有助于投资业绩飘红。

The industry consistently outperformed the stock market up to 2006, one study found, and its long-term performance has recovered from a post-2008 dip.

一项研究发现，私人股本行业在2006年以前一直跑赢股票市场，其长期业绩也已从2008年之后的谷底恢复。

But no matter how much leverage⁹ and ambition it injects into a company, a private equity fund cannot easily compensate¹⁵ for overpaying.

但是，无论私人股本基金向被投资企业注入多大杠杆和野心，收购价过高会让他们无法轻易获得补偿。

This is the pressing problem: one investor¹¹ estimates that his fund must pay 15 or 20 per cent more to buy a company with stable earnings¹⁶ than it did two years ago.

这是当前的迫切问题：据一位投资者估算，他的基金必须支付高出两年前15%或20%的价格，才能买到一家盈利稳定的公司。

Funds prefer to find companies and take time — sometimes years — to size them up and get to know their founders¹⁷ or executives. The new reality is often that, as one partner describes it: “You get a book sent by Goldman Sachs, one dinner with a camera-ready executive team, and then an auction¹⁸.”

私人股本基金更喜欢物色企业，然后花费时间（有时是几年）对之作出评估和了解其创始人或高管。而如今，一名基金合伙人描述道，新的现实经常是，“你得到高盛(Goldman Sachs)寄来的一本书，跟随时准备拍照的管理团队吃一顿晚餐，然后就是一场拍卖。”

They are not only competing against each other. The most enthusiastic¹⁹ bidders²⁰ are often companies in the same industry that can obtain cost savings²¹ by integrating a smaller rival. Pension funds are also getting in on the act by co-investing with private equity funds, and sometimes investing directly.

私人股本基金不仅仅是彼此竞争。最热心的竞购者通常是同一行业的公司，通过兼并一家更小的对手可以节省成本。养老基金也参与进来，与私人股本基金共同投资，有时则是直接投资。

The obvious response to an overheated market is to slow down, and even to take a break from investing until prices fall. In theory, this should be an advantage of private equity funds — they do not have to place funds immediately, and will not benefit their investors by rushing.

在过热的市场，投资明显应该减速，甚至暂停，直到价格跌下来。在理论上，这应该是私人股本基金的优势——它们不必立即把钱投出去，仓促投资的话，将不会让自己的投资人受益。

Most are pressing ahead anyway. They believe they have a unique formula that will keep their investments safe while others overpay. They do not say, although it is true, that they only get rewarded for action. They charge a 1.5 per cent management fee on their investments.

但大多数私人股本基金仍在冒进。它们认为自己掌握着独特的公式，将保证在其他人出价过高时，自己的投资一直是安全的。它们没说出来的是——尽管是事实——它们唯有行动起来，才能获得回报。它们对自己的投资项目收取1.5%的管理费。

If you pay a lot, you need to get value somehow. The danger is that they start treating every company like a distressed²² asset to obtain a return, even if it was originally fine.

如果你付出了很高价格，你就需要在某些地方获得价值。危险在于，它们为了获取回报，开始把每一家公司都当作不良资产看待，即便这些公司当初很不错。

They may be pushed into acting²³ more like 3G, which one investor calls a “brutal²⁴” cost-cutter at companies including Kraft Heinz, where it eliminated 13,000 jobs.

它们可能被迫更像3G资本那样行事——一个投资者把3G资本称为“残酷”的成本削减者，包括对卡夫亨氏(Kraft Heinz)等公司。3G资本在卡夫亨氏砍掉了1.3万个工作岗位。

The private equity industry should enjoy the party while it lasts. The fun could soon be over.

私人股本行业应在盛宴继续的时候享受盛宴。欢乐可能很快就结束了。