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机器人还是全球化
添加时间:2017-04-20 17:06:25 浏览次数: 作者:未知
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  • In the first part of this mini-series, I surveyed how robots, automation and other productivity-enhancing technology is affecting industries at the heart of the economy as well as some more exotic science fiction examples. In the second part, I considered the “Solow paradox1” — the strange combination of breathless innovation with stagnant2 labour productivity (though not so strange when you realise there is not that much investment in capital embodying3 the new technologies).

    在这几篇迷你系列文章的第一部分,我调查了现今机器人、自动化以及其他提高生产率的技术是如何影响经济核心产业以及一些更奇特的科幻小说例子。在第二部分,我考察了“索洛悖论”(Solow paradox)——令人喘不过气的创新与停滞不前的劳动生产率的奇怪组合(不过当你意识到并没有那么多体现新技术的投资时,这就没那么奇怪了)。

    Today, we focus on the question of greatest political consequence4. Who stole the jobs — was it robots or foreigners? Or less tendentiously, was the falling number of manufacturing jobs in rich countries caused by trade liberalisation or by automation and other productivity-enhancing technological5 change?

    现在,我们把重点放在这带来的最大的政治影响上。谁偷走了工作——是机器人还是外国人?或者不那么带有倾向性地来看,富裕国家制造业就业数量不断下滑,是由贸易自由化或自动化和其他提高生产率的技术变革造成的吗?

    For it is largely manufacturing jobs we are talking about. The US is special in that overall employment rates (for all jobs taken together) have fallen since the turn of the century, and for longer than that among men. As Jason Furman and his colleagues have documented extensively, the US faces an especially aggravating6 version of a more common problem in which manufacturing jobs have not only disappeared but failed to be replaced by anything at all.

    我们主要讨论制造业就业。美国的特殊之处在于,自从进入21世纪以来,总体就业率(所有工作都算在一起)一直下滑,并且下滑时间长于男性就业率下滑的时间。正如杰森?福尔曼(Jason Furman)及其同事记录的大量文档所表明的那样,美国正面临着一个比较普遍的问题的严重版——制造业岗位不仅消失了,而且没有得到任何替代。

    So are robots or trade to blame? The simple and largely true answer is: both. But there is still a question of their relative importance, and of what exactly the blame entails7.

    那么到底该怪机器人还是贸易?一个简单而大致上正确的回答是:两者都怪。但现在还存在另一个问题——两者相对的重要性、以及它们到底罪在哪里。

    All industrialised countries have been shedding labour in manufacturing for decades, a process that started before the wave of globalisation in the 1990s. It is clear that the balance of trade has little to do with it: the similarities between structural8 change in employment in perennial-surplus Germany and permanent-deficit US are much greater than the differences.

    数十年来,所有工业化国家的制造业都在减员,该过程始于上世纪90年代全球化浪潮开始前。贸易差额明显与该问题无关:常年处于贸易顺差的德国与始终处于贸易逆差的美国,在就业结构变化方面的相似点远远超过差异。

    But the growth in overall trade that accompanied the regional and global trade liberalisation during the three decades before the global financial crisis will have the effect of changing the employment and production structure of the opening economies — indeed that is part of the point of lowering trade barriers. Standard theory predicts that with more open trade, countries will specialise more intensively in production that makes most use of their relative endowment of labour, skill, capital and natural resources.

    但全球金融危机发生前的30年里的区域和全球贸易自由化带来的总体贸易增长,将会改变开放型经济体的就业和生产结构——实际上这正是减少贸易壁垒的部分意义。标准理论预测,随着进一步开放贸易,各国将更集中地专攻最大化地利用它们在劳动力、技能、资本和自然资源上的相对禀赋的生产。

    Recent research by Adrian Wood measures to what extent this has indeed happened. As the table below shows (for more detail, look up the background paper) the share of manufacturing in global production and employment fell noticeably in the three decades from 1985. But different regions went through dramatically different changes. In particular, in most land-scarce regions (particularly prone9 to specialise in manufacturing, according to theory) the share of manufacturing in the economy expanded, while it shrank in all land-abundant ones.

    艾德里安?伍德(Adrian Wood)最近的研究衡量了这种情况发生的程度。如下表所示(若需要更多细节,请查阅相关论文),在1985年之后的30年里,制造业在全球生产和就业中所占比例明显下滑。但不同地区经历了截然不同的变化。尤其是,在大多数土地稀缺的地区(根据理论,这些是尤其倾向于专攻制造业的地区),制造业在经济中的占比有所扩大,而在所有土地充裕的地区,制造业在经济中的占比缩小了。

    Wood suggests this shows that the dramatic changes in manufacturing employment can be laid at the door of economic globalisation. But the story is not as simple as that. Look where the biggest changes in employment shares happened. Among rich countries (OECD members), the manufacturing employment share fell just as much in land-rich and land-scarce economies. The output share increased in land-scarce ones — but in conjunction with the loss of manufacturing jobs, this is surely an effect of automation and technology. Meanwhile the two other regions with particularly large structural changes were the Soviet10 sphere, which in 1985 had an overgrown and inefficient11 manufacturing sector12 that collapsed13 under its own weight once the economy was liberalised, and China, whose liberalisation and trade integration14 surely contributed to its industrial revolution.

    伍德认为,这表明制造业就业的急剧变化可以归咎于经济全球化。但事实没那么简单。看看哪些地区的制造业就业占比变化最大。在富裕国家中(经合组织(OECD)成员国),土地充裕经济体与土地稀缺经济体的制造业就业占比降幅相当。制造业在土地稀缺经济体的产出中的占比增加——但同时制造业就业流失,这肯定是自动化和技术的影响。与此同时,另外两个结构变化特别大的地区是前苏联地区和中国。前者在1985年制造业发展过快、效率低下,在经济进行自由化时被自身重量压垮,而后者的自由化和贸易一体化显然促进了工业变革。

    What all this points to, then, is a process in which many poor countries went from a pre-industrial employment structure to an industrial one (but some stagnated15, in particular in Africa), and in which all rich countries largely went from an industrial to a service-based employment structure. The poor country transition or lack of it no doubt owes a lot to the ability to enter the world trading system. In the rich country transition this looks more like what you would expect from the continued growth in manufacturing productivity, echoing what had earlier happened in agriculture.

    那么,这一切都指向了很多贫穷国家从工业化前就业结构到工业化就业结构的过程(但有些国家的这一过程陷入了停滞,特别是在非洲),以及所有富裕国家基本上从工业化就业结构到以服务业为基础的就业结构的过程。贫穷国家实现转型或未能转型,无疑与它们进入世界贸易体系的能力有很大关系。而富裕国家的转型,看起来更像是制造业生产率持续增长所必然带来的,与之前农业出现的情况相似。

    And conversely, there is direct evidence for the automation thesis. A new study by Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo tries to measure the effect on US jobs (and wages) of the increased use of industrial robots. An interview with Acemoglu about the findings puts the number of manufacturing jobs lost because of robots at 670,000 between 1990 and 2007.

    相反,有直接证据支撑了自动化造成制造业失业的论点。达龙?阿西莫格鲁(Daron Acemoglu)和帕斯夸尔?雷斯特雷波(Pascual Restrepo)的新研究试图衡量,加大使用工业机器人对美国就业(和工资水平)的影响。在一篇就研究发现对阿西莫格鲁的采访中,1990年至2007年因机器人而造成的制造业失业数字为67万。

    What lessons can we draw? First, that both trade and automation play a role. But second and more importantly, that the two cannot be neatly16 separated — automation-driven productivity growth and attendant job loss may be both an ultimately unavoidable part of economic change and be accelerated by trade liberalisation. Rich economies with highly-skilled labour forces are well placed to respond to greater trade by specialising in higher-value added products — just those where automation can do the most to increase productivity. Hence, for example, the success so far of the US car industry, which produces more vehicles than ever and exports finished cars to China.

    我们能得出什么结论呢?首先,贸易和自动化都发挥了作用。但第二点也是更为重要的一点是,二者无法彻底分开,由自动化驱动的生产率增长以及随之而来的就业流失可能都是经济变革最终不可避免的一部分,并且被贸易自由化加速。拥有高技能劳动力的富裕经济体有能力通过专门生产更高附加值的产品,应对贸易扩大——在更高附加值产品领域,自动化最能提高生产率。例如迄今美国汽车业的成功,其生产的汽车数量超过任何时候,并将整车出口到中国。

    But third, that a protectionist trade policy may not do much good even if trade was part of what eroded17 certain jobs in the past. For if trade helped automation along the way, it is not as if restricting it will wind automation back. At most it may delay further automation, but that will come at a cost. In particular, it will make it harder to export manufacturing goods into a global market that uses the most cost-effective techniques. Trade sceptics who aim to protect manufacturing jobs should be alert to the distinction of protectionism and mercantilism. While the latter aims to boost exports, the former, by restricting imports, may well hold back exports, too.

    但第三,尽管贸易曾经造成过去某些就业的消失,但保护主义贸易政策可能也不会有大好处。因为,即使贸易曾经在这个过程中帮助过自动化,限制贸易也不会让自动化倒退。它充其量可能会推迟进一步自动化,但这是要付出代价的。特别的,它将加大把制造业产品出口到利用最节约成本技术的全球市场的难度。试图保护制造业就业的贸易怀疑论者应注意保护主义和重商主义的区别。后者旨在扩大出口,而前者由于限制进口很有可能同样阻碍出口。

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    1 paradox [ˈpærədɒks] pAxys   第7级
    n.似乎矛盾却正确的说法;自相矛盾的人(物)
    参考例句:
    • The story contains many levels of paradox. 这个故事存在多重悖论。
    • The paradox is that Japan does need serious education reform. 矛盾的地方是日本确实需要教育改革。
    2 stagnant [ˈstægnənt] iGgzj   第8级
    adj.不流动的,停滞的,不景气的
    参考例句:
    • Due to low investment, industrial output has remained stagnant. 由于投资少,工业生产一直停滞不前。
    • Their national economy is stagnant. 他们的国家经济停滞不前。
    3 embodying [imˈbɔdiŋ] 6e759eac57252cfdb6d5d502ccc75f4b   第7级
    v.表现( embody的现在分词 );象征;包括;包含
    参考例句:
    • Every instrument constitutes an independent contract embodying a payment obligation. 每张票据都构成一份独立的体现支付义务的合同。 来自口语例句
    • Fowth, The aesthetical transcendency and the beauty embodying the man's liberty. \" 第四部分:审美的超越和作为人类自由最终体现的“美”。 来自互联网
    4 consequence [ˈkɒnsɪkwəns] Jajyr   第8级
    n.结果,后果;推理,推断;重要性
    参考例句:
    • The consequence was that he caught a bad cold. 结果是他得了重感冒。
    • In consequence he lost his place. 结果,他失去了他的位置。
    5 technological [ˌteknə'lɒdʒɪkl] gqiwY   第7级
    adj.技术的;工艺的
    参考例句:
    • A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change. 一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
    • Today, the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements. 当今,随着科技进步,生活节奏不断增快。
    6 aggravating ['ægrəveitiŋ] a730a877bac97b818a472d65bb9eed6d   第7级
    adj.恼人的,讨厌的
    参考例句:
    • How aggravating to be interrupted! 被打扰,多令人生气呀!
    • Diesel exhaust is particularly aggravating to many susceptible individuals. 许多体质敏感的人尤其反感柴油废气。
    7 entails [inˈteilz] bc08bbfc5f8710441959edc8dadcb925   第7级
    使…成为必要( entail的第三人称单数 ); 需要; 限定继承; 使必需
    参考例句:
    • The job entails a lot of hard work. 这工作需要十分艰苦的努力。
    • This job entails a lot of hard work. 这项工作需要十分努力。
    8 structural [ˈstrʌktʃərəl] itXw5   第8级
    adj.构造的,组织的,建筑(用)的
    参考例句:
    • The storm caused no structural damage. 风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
    • The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities. 北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。
    9 prone [prəʊn] 50bzu   第7级
    adj.(to)易于…的,很可能…的;俯卧的
    参考例句:
    • Some people are prone to jump to hasty conclusions. 有些人往往作出轻率的结论。
    • He is prone to lose his temper when people disagree with him. 人家一不同意他的意见,他就发脾气。
    10 Soviet [ˈsəʊviət] Sw9wR   第8级
    adj.苏联的,苏维埃的;n.苏维埃
    参考例句:
    • Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union. 朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
    • Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941. 德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。
    11 inefficient [ˌɪnɪˈfɪʃnt] c76xm   第7级
    adj.效率低的,无效的
    参考例句:
    • The inefficient operation cost the firm a lot of money. 低效率的运作使该公司损失了许多钱。
    • Their communication systems are inefficient in the extreme. 他们的通讯系统效率非常差。
    12 sector [ˈsektə(r)] yjczYn   第7级
    n.部门,部分;防御地段,防区;扇形
    参考例句:
    • The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
    • The enemy have attacked the British sector. 敌人已进攻英国防区。
    13 collapsed [kə'læpzd] cwWzSG   第7级
    adj.倒塌的
    参考例句:
    • Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
    • The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。
    14 integration [ˌɪntɪˈgreɪʃn] G5Pxk   第9级
    n.一体化,联合,结合
    参考例句:
    • We are working to bring about closer political integration in the EU. 我们正在努力实现欧盟內部更加紧密的政治一体化。
    • This was the greatest event in the annals of European integration. 这是欧洲统一史上最重大的事件。
    15 stagnated [ˈstæɡneitid] a3d1e0a7dd736bc430ba471d9dfdf3a2   第12级
    v.停滞,不流动,不发展( stagnate的过去式和过去分词 )
    参考例句:
    • The balloting had stagnated, he couldn't win. 投票工作陷于停顿,他不能得胜。 来自辞典例句
    • His mind has stagnated since his retirement. 他退休后头脑迟钝了。 来自辞典例句
    16 neatly [ni:tlɪ] ynZzBp   第8级
    adv.整洁地,干净地,灵巧地,熟练地
    参考例句:
    • Sailors know how to wind up a long rope neatly. 水手们知道怎样把一条大绳利落地缠好。
    • The child's dress is neatly gathered at the neck. 那孩子的衣服在领口处打着整齐的皱褶。
    17 eroded [ɪ'rəʊdɪd] f1d64e7cb6e68a5e1444e173c24e672e   第8级
    adj. 被侵蚀的,有蚀痕的 动词erode的过去式和过去分词形式
    参考例句:
    • The cliff face has been steadily eroded by the sea. 峭壁表面逐渐被海水侵蚀。
    • The stream eroded a channel in the solid rock. 小溪在硬石中侵蚀成一条水道。

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