Donald Trump¹ this month hailed a deal to resume US beef exports to China as an early win from trade talks with Beijing.

本月，唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)将一项恢复美国对华牛肉出口的协议誉为对华贸易谈判取得的初步胜利。

“China just agreed that the US will be allowed to sell beef, and other major products, into China once again,” the US president tweeted. “This is REAL news!”

“中国刚刚答应允许美国再次向中国出售牛肉和其他重要产品，”这位美国总统在Twitter上发帖称：“这是真新闻！”

But prime American steak is already on the menu at many mainland restaurants despite a ban in place since a 2003 case of mad cow disease: there is a flourishing grey market in secondary imports from Hong Kong, where the curbs² did not apply.

不过，尽管2003年美国爆发疯牛病后中国出台禁令禁止进口美国牛肉，但优质美国牛排早已出现在中国内地许多餐厅的菜单上：这是因为存在一个繁荣的、从香港二次进口的灰色市场，香港并不适用这项禁令。

“That’s a secret,” said a waiter at New York Style Steak & Burger in Shanghai when asked how it sourced its meat.

“这是个秘密，”上海New York Style Steak & Burger的一名侍者在被问及该店牛肉的采购地时说。

Cuts destined³ for China could make up half of US beef exports to Hong Kong, according to Chenjun Pan, an analyst⁴ at Rabobank — a figure that would represent more than $340m of meat a year.

运往中国内地的牛排，可能占美国对香港牛肉出口的一半，荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)分析师潘晨军(Chenjun Pan)表示，这相当于每年3.4亿美元的牛排。

The official revival⁵ of US beef exports to China stands to benefit big producers such as Tyson, which have missed out on a boom in Chinese beef demand. Chinese imports of the meat have soared in recent years, reaching $2.5bn last year — up 700 per cent on 2012 — as rising incomes boost meat consumption while relatively⁶ inefficient⁷ domestic producers struggle to keep up with demand.

美国正式恢复对华牛肉出口，将有利于泰臣(Tyson)等大型生产商。这些生产商错过了中国牛肉需求的高速增长。近年来，中国肉类进口额大幅增长，去年达25亿美元，较2012年高了700%。中国人的收入增长提振了肉类消费，而国内生产商的生产效率相对较低，难以跟上市场需求。

Several Chinese importers told the Financial Times they were keen to start buying premium⁸ grain-fed US beef as soon as possible.

一些中国进口商告诉英国《金融时报》，他们很乐意尽快开始采购优质的美国谷饲牛肉。

Although most of China’s imports are of lower-priced grass-fed beef from Brazil, Uruguay and Australia, US beef has long been perceived as higher quality, and it is this that has fuelled the grey market trade via Hong Kong.

虽然中国进口的大部分牛肉是来自巴西、乌拉圭和澳大利亚的价格较低的草饲牛肉，但美国牛肉长期以来一直被认为品质更高，正是这一点推动了经香港进口美国牛肉的灰色市场贸易的发展。

Zhou Wenjie, a buyer at an import business based in Jiangsu province, said the prevalence of smuggling⁹ would set a ceiling on future prices. US beef is expected to sell for higher prices than those charged for Australian meat, which retails¹⁰ online from about Rmb80 ($11) per kilogramme, but lower than those for Canadian beef, which starts at roughly Rmb120, he estimated.

江苏省一家进口企业的采购员周文杰（音译）表示，走私活动大行其道会为未来的价格设定上限。预计，美国牛肉的售价会高于澳大利亚牛肉（网上零售价最低为每公斤80元人民币左右），但低于加拿大牛肉（最低为每公斤120元人民币左右）。

The existence of the grey channel “means the mainland has a lot of demand,” Henry Huang, managing director at beef importer JOC Australia, told the Financial Times. “US beef is acceptable in China. I think the price of high-quality grass-fed beef will crash a little bit, because the US has very good advantage in high-quality cuts.”

灰色渠道的存在“意味着中国内地的需求很大”，牛肉进口商JOC Australia的董事总经理Henry Huang告诉英国《金融时报》，“美国牛肉在中国受到好评。我认为，优质草饲牛肉的价格会略微下滑，因为美国在优质牛排方面拥有很大优势。”

Yu Xuerong, chairman of food importer Shanghai Paradise Garden, said his company would “certainly import US beef”. He said that it was popular before the ban, and that he was in contact with Cargill, the world’s biggest agricultural commodities merchant.

食品进口商上海天萃庭健康食品有限公司(Shanghai Paradise Garden)董事长余学荣表示，他的公司“肯定会进口美国牛肉”。他说，禁令出台前美国牛肉很受欢迎，他正在与全球最大的农产品贸易商嘉吉(Cargill)进行接触。

China’s opening to the US has been in the works for a long time, with an initial announcement in the final months of the Obama administration. But analysts¹¹ warn that it may take many more years for a large-scale beef supply chain from the US to China to mature.

中国对美国牛肉开放市场已经筹备很长时间了，中方最初宣布开放市场的消息时，奥巴马(Obama)政府离任期结束还剩几个月。不过，分析师警告称，一条从美国到中国的大型牛肉供应链可能还需要好多年才能成熟。

In a possible harbinger of what awaits the US, Ireland announced the relaunch of beef exports to China in 2015 only to meet a series of bureaucratic¹² hurdles¹³, and the trade in beef has yet to start flowing.

2015年，爱尔兰宣布重启对华牛肉出口，结果遭遇了一系列官僚障碍，牛肉出口至今尚未启动。这预示着美国可能会遭遇的情形。

Meanwhile, specifics such as tariffs¹⁴ and standards for producers have yet to be decided¹⁵.

另一方面，关税和生产商标准等具体细节尚未敲定。

“We can evaluate the scope of this potential?.?.?.?only after we see the details of the import conditions,” said Joel Haggard of the US Meat Export Federation¹⁶.

“只有在看到进口条件的细节之后，我们才能评估这种潜力有多大，”美国肉类出口协会(US Meat Export Federation)的何嘉德(Joel Haggard)说。