As Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors rolled out their electric cars for the mass market in 2010, Japanese manufacturers placed enthusiastic¹ bets on a surge in battery demand. But the electric vehicle revolution failed to materialise and much of their investments went sour.

随着2010年日产(Nissan)和三菱汽车(Mitsubishi Motors)在大众市场推出电动汽车，日本制造商热情地押注于电池需求激增。但电动汽车革命未能实现，它们的大部分投资都打了水漂。

Nearly a decade later, China and other governments are driving a massive push for a future of electric cars as they try to shift consumers away from combustion² engines.

近十年过去了，中国以及其他国家的政府正在大力推广电动汽车，希望未来让消费者不再使用内燃机汽车。

To capture the market for these vehicles, global carmakers from Volkswagen to Tesla are attempting to lock in supplies of raw materials that are needed to increase production of lithium ion batteries, which will power this electric revolution.

为了抢占电动汽车市场，从大众(Volkswagen)到特斯拉(Tesla)的全球汽车制造商正试图锁定扩大生产锂离子电池所需的原材料的供应。锂离子电池将会为这种电动革命提供动力。

Indeed, electric vehicle supply in China is expected to be one of the main drivers of global demand for lithium. By 2030, Goldman Sachs expects China to supply 60 per cent of the world’s electric vehicles, up from 45 per cent in 2016.

预计中国的电动汽车供应将成为全球锂需求的主要推动力之一。高盛(Goldman Sachs)预计，到2030年，中国生产的电动汽车将占到全球产量的60%，高于2016年的45%。

However, the problem for all carmakers is that none of them have “proper long-term contracts” for supply of lithium, according to Simon Moores, founder⁴ of London-based Benchmark Minerals Intelligence.

然而，据伦敦基准矿业情报(Benchmark Minerals Intelligence)的创始人西蒙?穆尔斯(Simon Moores)表示，所有汽车制造商面临的问题是，它们都没有锂供应的“适当长期合同”。

Milan Thakore, an analyst⁵ at Wood Mackenzie, adds: “I think a lot of car manufacturers are almost panicking, in the sense they want to make sure they don’t miss out on the essential materials they need for the battery.”

Wood Mackenzie的分析师米兰?塔科尔(Milan Thakore)补充道：“很多汽车制造商希望确保自己不会缺失这些制造电池所需的关键材料，从这方面来说，我认为它们几乎是感到了恐慌。”

The fears are particularly pronounced in Japan, once the undisputed leader in rechargeable battery technology.

这种担忧在日本尤为明显，后者曾经是可充电电池技术无可争议的领导者。

While Japan’s Panasonic remains⁶ the world’s biggest supplier of car batteries, China is now home to two of the world’s top five suppliers of lithium batteries — CATL and BYD.

尽管日本的松下(Panasonic)仍然是全球最大的汽车电池供应商，但目前世界五大锂电池供应商中，有两家在中国，即宁德时代新能源科技有限公司(CATL)和比亚迪(BYD)。

Backed by aggressive government policies and subsidies⁷ for electric vehicles, Chinese manufacturers also control between 50 and 77 per cent of the market for four of the key components⁸ — cathode materials, anode materials, electrolyte solutions and separators — used in lithium ion batteries, according to Yano research Institute.

矢野经济研究所(Yano Research)的数据显示，在激进的政府政策和电动汽车补贴的支持下，中国制造商还控制着锂离子电池中使用的四种关键原料——阴极材料、阳极材料、电解液和隔膜——市场的50%-77%份额。

Lacking the financial firepower of government-sponsored Chinese rivals, Japanese carmakers have traditionally relied on homegrown tie-ups with trading houses, battery makers³ and materials suppliers to resolve any shortage in resources.

由于不具备像受到政府资助的中国竞争对手那样的财力，日本汽车制造商一直依靠与国内贸易公司、电池制造商和材料供应商的本土合作来解决资源短缺问题。

But with competition growing globally, Japanese carmakers can no longer resolve shortages in resources through using domestic materials makers alone as they are too stretched and under pressure to supply overseas groups.

但随着全球范围内竞争日益加剧，日本汽车制造商无法再单靠国内材料生产商来解决资源短缺问题，因为资源过于紧张，而且后者还面临向海外集团供应的压力。

“Their [Japanese material makers] clients will be all over the world,” says Noboru Sato, a visiting professor at Nagoya University and a former executive of battery supplier Samsung SDI.

名古屋大学(Nagoya University)访问教授、电池供应商三星SDI(Samsung SDI)前高管诺博鲁?萨托(Noboru Sato)表示：“它们（日本原材料制造商）的客户将来自世界各地。”

“While Japanese companies may say they can compete with technology, it’s going to be the investment capacity that will be a critical factor for future competition in batteries,” he adds.

他补充说：“虽然日本公司可能会说它们可以在技术上展开竞争，但投资能力将会成为未来电池领域竞争的一个关键因素。”

This has prompted some Japanese groups to try to move away from the homegrown model, which has traditionally relied on domestic battery technology that was deemed to be higher in quality than that offered by Chinese groups.

这促使一些日本集团试图摆脱本土模式，传统上这种模式依赖于国内电池技术，而后者被认为质量优于中国集团。

For example, Nissan last year offloaded its battery business with Japan’s NEC to a Chinese private equity⁹ group, GSR Capital, as it sought to boost its cost competitiveness.

例如，去年日产将其与日本NEC的电池业务转让给中国私人股本集团金沙江资本(GSR Capital)，因为它试图提高成本竞争力。

Jun Seki, who heads Nissan’s Chinese joint venture with Dongfeng Motor Group, recently indicated the carmaker may procure¹⁰ lithium ion batteries from a Chinese manufacturer to meet local government requirements.

日产与东风汽车集团(Dongfeng Motor Group)在中国的合资企业的负责人关润(Jun Seki)最近暗示，该合资企业可能会向一家中国制造商采购锂离子电池以满足当地政府的要求。

Toyota is also trying to take the initiative, albeit¹¹ through the traditional model. In January, its trading arm agreed on a $224m deal to take a 15 per cent stake in Orocobre, an Australian company that produces lithium in Argentina.

丰田(Toyota)也试图掌握主动，只不过它采用的是传统模式。今年1月，丰田交易部门同意以2.24亿美元收购澳大利亚公司Orocobre 15%的股份。Orocobre在阿根廷生产锂。

Additionally, the company has taken steps to strengthen its relations with domestic suppliers as it plans to launch electric vehicles in China and India from 2020.

此外，丰田还采取措施加强与国内供应商的关系，该公司计划从2020年开始在中国和印度推出电动汽车。

Significantly, it has deepened its partnership¹² with Panasonic in an effort to accelerate commercialisation of solid-state batteries, which can hold higher power and charge in less time than conventional lithium ion batteries.

值得注意的是，它加强了与松下的合作关系，以加速固态电池的商业化进程。与传统的锂离子电池相比，固态电池拥有更大容量，而且充电时间更短。

The company also owns a stake in Sumitomo Metal Mining, the country’s largest nickel smelter, which supplies cathode materials for Panasonic’s lithium ion batteries that are used in Tesla’s electric vehicles.

丰田还持有日本最大的镍冶炼企业——住友金属矿业公司(Sumitomo Metal Mining)的股份，后者为特斯拉电动汽车中应用的松下锂离子电池供应阴极材料。

Elsewhere, Germany’s Volkswagen has launched a tender for five years’ supply of cobalt, although it has struggled to find any takers.

在其他地方，德国的大众启动了五年钴供应的招标工作，尽管它很难找到投标者。

This month, BMW said it was close to signing a deal for the long-term supply of battery metals lithium and cobalt, while Tesla is also in talks with Chile’s SQM, one of the world’s largest lithium producers.

本月，宝马表示即将签署一项关于电池金属锂和钴的长期供应协议，而特斯拉也正在与智利SQM谈判，后者是全球最大的锂生产商之一。

For their part, Chinese companies are also increasing their investment in lithium producers.

就中国企业来说，它们也在增加对锂生产商的投资。

Johan Van De Ven, of RWR Advisory¹³, a Washington-based consultancy, said the Chinese auto¹⁴ industry was keen to avoid supply chain bottlenecks¹⁵ that could slow production of electric vehicles.

华盛顿咨询公司RWR咨询(RWR Advisory)的乔翰?范德万(Johan van de Ven)表示，中国汽车业渴望避免可能会导致电动汽车生产放缓的供应链瓶颈。

“Establishing control over raw materials can provide the supply chain security that China needs to meet its ambitious EV targets, and may also allow it to scupper the progress of other players,” he says.

他表示：“确立对原材料的控制，能够使中国获得实现其在电动汽车领域雄心勃勃的目标所需的供应链安全，并且还可能使得它能够阻止其他企业的进步。”

RWR Advisory recorded more than $1bn in transactions for lithium mines by Chinese companies — particularly car companies and car supply companies, up from zero in 2016 and $178m in 2015.

RWR咨询的记录显示，中国企业（尤其是汽车企业和汽车零部件供应企业）在锂矿方面的交易超过10亿美元，而2016年和2015年的交易额分别为零和1.78亿美元。

Among the deals, Chinese carmaker Great Wall Motor signed an agreement with Australian lithium miner Pilbara Minerals to secure supply of the metal for five years.

在这些交易中，中国汽车制造商长城汽车(Great Wall Motor)与澳大利亚锂矿开采商Pilbara Minerals签署了一份协议以保障五年的锂供应。

The country’s largest producer of electric vehicles, BYD, also partnered with China’s largest potash production base, the Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Co, to extract lithium from a salt lake and make batteries.

中国最大的电动汽车生产商比亚迪也与中国最大的钾肥生产基地——青海盐湖股份(Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Co)合作，从盐湖中提取锂并制造电池。

China also dominates the supply chain for cobalt — the battery material of top concern for carmakers as more than half of the world’s supply comes from the unstable¹⁶ Democratic Republic of Congo, raising fears among carmakers over security of supply.

中国还占据了钴供应链的主导地位——这是汽车制造商最为关注的电池材料，因为全球一半以上的钴供应来自局势不稳的刚果民主共和国，引发了汽车制造商对供应安全的担忧。

However, despite the initiatives, there are nagging¹⁷ concerns among some groups over whether companies should move rapidly towards locking in raw materials deals as the price of lithium and cobalt rises dramatically.

然而，尽管采取了上述种种举措，但随着锂和钴的价格大幅上涨，一些企业依然在担忧是否应该迅速出手锁定原材料交易。

“Carmakers may need to secure raw materials themselves if they become desperate for lithium ion batteries, but it remains unclear whether electric vehicles will really take off and batteries will evolve,” says Maki Sekimoto, director at the metals research division of state-run agency Japan, Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation.

国有的日本石油天然气金属矿产资源机构(JOGMEC)的金属研究部主管Maki Sekimoto表示：“如果汽车制造商迫切需要锂离子电池，它们可能需要自己采购原材料，但目前还不清楚电动汽车是否能够真正起飞以及电池是否会不断发展。”

“It’s a headache for the industry that there are too many uncertain pieces that make it difficult to make a definitive¹⁸ call on which direction things will go.”

“让整个行业头痛的是不确定因素太多，以致很难确定形势将向哪个方向发展。”