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添加时间:2018-09-12 16:25:21 浏览次数: 作者:未知
  • 中美之间的贸易“战”在继续升级。到目前为止,美国已经对中国钢铝产品加征关税,这导致中国采取报复行动,在春季对美国30亿美元出口产品相应提高了关税。

    The trade “war” between the United States and China continues to escalate1. So far, the US has imposed tariffs3 on Chinese steel and aluminum4 products, leading the Chinese to retaliate5 with matching tariff2 rate increases on $3 billion in US exports in the spring.


    The total amount of trade now affected6 by large tariff rate increases both ways is $106 billion. The products covered includes a diverse list of items including soybeans, semiconductors7, railway cars, almonds, and backpacks.


    This disruption in trade flows has not led to a negotiated outcome yet, hence the US is planning to up the ante again by imposing8 25% tariffs on another $200 billion in imported goods from China starting in September.


    So far, the focus of trade actions has been on increasing costs at the border for goods. But for China, keeping up reciprocal rate hikes is becoming a problem, since Chinese firms do not import as many products from the United States as China exports to the US


    The hope of the American administration is that the Chinese government will recognize the impossibility of matching tariff increases and return to the negotiating table in earnest to resolve the issues around US Section 301, including problems with intellectual property and forced technology transfer.


    However, this rosy9 scenario10 may not materialize. Just because the Chinese cannot continue to match American actions on tariffs does not mean that China has no leverage11 it can exert.


    As David Baldwin pointed12 out in his 1985 book, Economic Statecraft, countries have a variety of options available in their economic toolkit. While the primary focus at the time was on the use of sanctions as a “weapon” short of armed conflict, he also highlighted other economic tools that could be used to achieve foreign policy outcomes.


    One tool is the use of monetary14 policy, including the adjustment of the value of a country’s currency.


    Currency adjustment is a blunt tool, rather than a surgical15 instrument. It affects the value of every item in the economy with every trading partner and is, consequently, not used as frequently as might be expected. But it can have utility in trade as a lower value currency will make exports cheaper. In a trade war, currency movements can offset16 tariff increases.


    Devaluing currency also drives up the cost of imports. Given the integration17 of Chinese firms into supply chains across Asia, a lower yuan is not automatically beneficial. Many of the products produced and assembled in China for the domestic market and for overseas consumers are created with raw materials and components18 sourced globally. A falling yuan can raise the prices for each of these items and may more than offset any cost savings19 in exports.


    Despite the mixed effects of currency movements, recent US administrations have been concerned about China using yuan devaluation as a tool of economic statecraft. American law requires the US Treasury20 to report semi-annually on the macroeconomic and foreign exchange policies of major trading partners.


    During the presidential election campaign, Donald Trump21 promised to name China a currency manipulator. Such a designation would trigger a host of economic sanctions from the United States, yet, once elected, his administration declined to do so.


    The launch of tariffs, though, also coincided with a fall in the value of the yuan, leaving many commentators22 wondering if the Chinese government had decided23 to explicitly24 intervene in the foreign exchange market to counter the damage from the trade war.


    However, the fall of the currency can also be seen as a natural byproduct of the escalating25 trade war. The collateral26 damage from the US-China trade war is likely to be substantial. Hence, currency traders and ordinary business operations are putting the yuan under substantial pressure.


    In response, it appears that the Chinese government is now trying to stabilize27 the situation, rather than allow the currency to continue to depreciate28. The People’s Bank of China has returned to a method of counter-cyclical operations, to try to keep the yuan relatively29 fixed30.


    Thus, while China’s government could certainly lower the value of the yuan to cope with an escalating trade conflict, it appears to have taken this option off the table for now.


    The removal of the yuan from policy options does not leave China bereft31 of ideas to counter American actions. While China cannot match dollar-for-dollar tariff increases beyond another $60 billion or so, it still has considerable power to disrupt trade in other ways.


    For example, China could focus attention on American service exports, which are substantial. Government officials in China might opt13 to closely scrutinize32 paperwork, licenses33, permits, and so forth34, of American operations in China. All US imports of goods into China might be subjected to additional safety or security checks that might take weeks to complete.


    In short, China can retaliate, should it choose to do so, even without using the blunt tool of yuan recalibration.


    Unfortunately for the global economy, the two sides do not seem to have a clear “off ramp35” to resolve their dispute, opting36 instead to ramp up pressure in the hopes that the other side will concede. There are many options in the economic toolkit that might be used in the meantime, meaning this conflict is likely to continue for some time.

     12级    双语 


    1 escalate [ˈeskəleɪt] biszi   第7级
    • It would tempt Israel's neighbors to escalate their demands. 它将诱使以色列的邻国不断把他们的要求升级。
    • Defeat could cause one side or other to escalate the conflict. 失败可能会导致其中一方将冲突升级。
    2 tariff [ˈtærɪf] mqwwG   第7级
    • There is a very high tariff on jewelry. 宝石类的关税率很高。
    • The government is going to lower the tariff on importing cars. 政府打算降低进口汽车的关税。
    3 tariffs [ˈtærifs] a7eb9a3f31e3d6290c240675a80156ec   第7级
    关税制度; 关税( tariff的名词复数 ); 关税表; (旅馆或饭店等的)收费表; 量刑标准
    • British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
    • The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。
    4 aluminum [ə'lju:minəm] 9xhzP   第7级
    • The aluminum sheets cannot be too much thicker than 0. 04 inches. 铝板厚度不能超过0. 04英寸。
    • During the launch phase, it would ride in a protective aluminum shell. 在发射阶段,它盛在一只保护的铝壳里。
    5 retaliate [rɪˈtælieɪt] FBtzJ   第9级
    • He sought every opportunity to retaliate against his enemy. 他找机会向他的敌人反击。
    • It is strictly forbidden to retaliate against the quality inspectors. 严禁对质量检验人员进行打击报复。
    6 affected [əˈfektɪd] TzUzg0   第9级
    • She showed an affected interest in our subject. 她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
    • His manners are affected. 他的态度不自然。
    7 semiconductors [semɪkən'dʌktəz] 0e1983fea761e849266037e7a40cb125   第7级
    n.半导体( semiconductor的名词复数 )
    • Crystals may be insulators, semiconductors, or conductors. 晶体可以是绝缘体,半导体,或导体。 来自辞典例句
    • Semiconductors containing such impurities are called p-type semiconductors. 含有这类杂质的半导体叫做P型半导体。 来自辞典例句
    8 imposing [ɪmˈpəʊzɪŋ] 8q9zcB   第8级
    • The fortress is an imposing building. 这座城堡是一座宏伟的建筑。
    • He has lost his imposing appearance. 他已失去堂堂仪表。
    9 rosy [ˈrəʊzi] kDAy9   第8级
    • She got a new job and her life looks rosy. 她找到一份新工作,生活看上去很美好。
    • She always takes a rosy view of life. 她总是对生活持乐观态度。
    10 scenario [səˈnɑ:riəʊ] lZoxm   第7级
    • But the birth scenario is not completely accurate. 然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
    • This is a totally different scenario. 这是完全不同的剧本。
    11 leverage [ˈli:vərɪdʒ] 03gyC   第9级
    • We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock. 我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
    • He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力,他的计划失败了。
    12 pointed [ˈpɔɪntɪd] Il8zB4   第7级
    • He gave me a very sharp pointed pencil. 他给我一支削得非常尖的铅笔。
    • A safety pin has a metal covering over the pointed end. 安全别针在尖端有一个金属套。
    13 opt [ɒpt] a4Szv   第7级
    • They opt for more holiday instead of more pay. 他们选择了延长假期而不是增加工资。
    • Will individual schools be given the right to opt out of the local school authority? 各个学校可能有权选择退出地方教育局吗?
    14 monetary [ˈmʌnɪtri] pEkxb   第7级
    • The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold. 过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
    • Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means. 荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。
    15 surgical [ˈsɜ:dʒɪkl] 0hXzV3   第9级
    • He performs the surgical operations at the Red Cross Hospital. 他在红十字会医院做外科手术。
    • All surgical instruments must be sterilised before use. 所有的外科手术器械在使用之前,必须消毒。
    16 offset [ˈɒfset] mIZx8   第7级
    • Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices. 他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
    • He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials. 他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。
    17 integration [ˌɪntɪˈgreɪʃn] G5Pxk   第9级
    • We are working to bring about closer political integration in the EU. 我们正在努力实现欧盟內部更加紧密的政治一体化。
    • This was the greatest event in the annals of European integration. 这是欧洲统一史上最重大的事件。
    18 components [kəm'pəʊnənt] 4725dcf446a342f1473a8228e42dfa48   第7级
    (机器、设备等的)构成要素,零件,成分; 成分( component的名词复数 ); [物理化学]组分; [数学]分量; (混合物的)组成部分
    • the components of a machine 机器部件
    • Our chemistry teacher often reduces a compound to its components in lab. 在实验室中化学老师常把化合物分解为各种成分。
    19 savings ['seɪvɪŋz] ZjbzGu   第8级
    • I can't afford the vacation, for it would eat up my savings. 我度不起假,那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
    • By this time he had used up all his savings. 到这时,他的存款已全部用完。
    20 treasury [ˈtreʒəri] 7GeyP   第9级
    • The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals. 财政部原则上反对这些提案。
    • This book is a treasury of useful information. 这本书是有价值的信息宝库。
    21 trump [trʌmp] LU1zK   第10级
    • He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown. 他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
    • The coach saved his star player for a trump card. 教练保留他的明星选手,作为他的王牌。
    22 commentators [ˈkɔmənˌteɪtəz] 14bfe5fe312768eb5df7698676f7837c   第10级
    n.评论员( commentator的名词复数 );时事评论员;注释者;实况广播员
    • Sports commentators repeat the same phrases ad nauseam. 体育解说员翻来覆去说着同样的词语,真叫人腻烦。
    • Television sports commentators repeat the same phrases ad nauseam. 电视体育解说员说来说去就是那么几句话,令人厌烦。 来自《简明英汉词典》
    23 decided [dɪˈsaɪdɪd] lvqzZd   第7级
    • This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents. 这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
    • There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting. 英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。
    24 explicitly [ik'splisitli] JtZz2H   第7级
    • The plan does not explicitly endorse the private ownership of land. 该计划没有明确地支持土地私有制。
    • SARA amended section 113 to provide explicitly for a right to contribution. 《最高基金修正与再授权法案》修正了第123条,清楚地规定了分配权。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
    25 escalating [ˈeskəleitɪŋ] 1b4e810e65548c7656e9ea468e403ca1   第7级
    v.(使)逐步升级( escalate的现在分词 );(使)逐步扩大;(使)更高;(使)更大
    • The cost of living is escalating. 生活费用在迅速上涨。 来自《简明英汉词典》
    • The cost of living is escalating in the country. 这个国家的生活费用在上涨。 来自辞典例句
    26 collateral [kəˈlætərəl] wqhzH   第8级
    • Many people use personal assets as collateral for small business loans. 很多人把个人财产用作小额商业贷款的抵押品。
    • Most people here cannot borrow from banks because they lack collateral. 由于拿不出东西作为抵押,这里大部分人无法从银行贷款。
    27 stabilize [ˈsteɪbəlaɪz] PvuwZ   第8级
    • They are eager to stabilize currencies. 他们急于稳定货币。
    • His blood pressure tended to stabilize. 他的血压趋向稳定。
    28 depreciate [dɪˈpri:ʃieɪt] Pmpz0   第9级
    • The computer value will depreciate by $500 in the first year. 在头一年里这台电脑会贬值500美元。
    • If you neglect this property, it will depreciate. 如果你忽视这份资产,它无形中就贬值了。
    29 relatively [ˈrelətɪvli] bkqzS3   第8级
    • The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia. 兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
    • The operation was relatively painless. 手术相对来说不痛。
    30 fixed [fɪkst] JsKzzj   第8级
    • Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet? 你们俩选定婚期了吗?
    • Once the aim is fixed, we should not change it arbitrarily. 目标一旦确定,我们就不应该随意改变。
    31 bereft [bɪˈreft] ndjy9   第11级
    • The place seemed to be utterly bereft of human life. 这个地方似乎根本没有人烟。
    • She was bereft of happiness. 她失去了幸福。
    32 scrutinize [ˈskru:tənaɪz] gDwz6   第9级
    • Her purpose was to scrutinize his features to see if he was an honest man. 她的目的是通过仔细观察他的相貌以判断他是否诚实。
    • She leaned forward to scrutinize their faces. 她探身向前,端详他们的面容。
    33 licenses [ˈlaisənsiz] 9d2fccd1fa9364fe38442db17bb0cb15   第7级
    n.执照( license的名词复数 )v.批准,许可,颁发执照( license的第三人称单数 )
    • Drivers have ten days' grace to renew their licenses. 驾驶员更换执照有10天的宽限期。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
    • Jewish firms couldn't get import or export licenses or raw materials. 犹太人的企业得不到进出口许可证或原料。 来自辞典例句
    34 forth [fɔ:θ] Hzdz2   第7级
    • The wind moved the trees gently back and forth. 风吹得树轻轻地来回摇晃。
    • He gave forth a series of works in rapid succession. 他很快连续发表了一系列的作品。
    35 ramp [ræmp] QTgxf   第9级
    • That driver drove the car up the ramp. 那司机将车开上了斜坡。
    • The factory don't have that capacity to ramp up. 这家工厂没有能力加速生产。
    36 opting [ɔptɪŋ] e6a09ce5b5c8079c1654586c4e1dc5b3   第7级
    v.选择,挑选( opt的现在分词 )
    • What courses are most students opting for? 多数学生选什么课程? 来自《简明英汉词典》
    • Wells doesn't rule out opting out and then re-signing with Houston. 威尔斯没有排除跳出合同再与火箭重签的可能。 来自互联网

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