The broadening of the criminal inquiry¹ in Germany into the Volkswagen diesel² emissions³ scandal to include Hans Dieter Pötsch, chairman of its supervisory board, shows how badly VW lost its way.

德国扩大了针对大众汽车(Volkswagen)柴油尾气排放丑闻的刑事调查，该公司监事会主席汉斯.迪亚特.波什(Hans Dieter Pötsch)成为调查对象，这表明大众汽车多么地误入歧途。

The scandal is still shaking the company: its use of software on up to 11m cars to help them pass emissions tests has carried a heavy price, making VW set aside EURO18.2bn. It has also disillusioned⁴ the industry, ending Europe’s hope of “clean diesel” becoming an enduring alternative to petrol.

这桩丑闻仍在撼动该公司：大众在其1100万辆柴油发动机汽车上安装作弊软件帮助这些汽车通过尾气排放检测，这一做法的代价是惨重的，迫使大众为此拨备182亿欧元。大众还让汽车行业的幻想破灭，终结了欧洲让“清洁柴油”成为一种长久取代汽油的选择的希望。

The lasting⁵ significance of the VW scandal will be to bring forward a shift in engine technology and alter the balance of power among the world’s biggest vehicle markets: the US, Europe and Asia. The lesson for carmakers is: go electric and go to China.

大众尾气丑闻的持久影响将促使发动机技术发生转变，并改变全球最大汽车市场（美国、欧洲和亚洲）的实力平衡。汽车制造商得到的教训是：生产电动汽车，到中国去。

Fuel-efficient diesel, with exhaust filters to limit emissions of nitrogen oxide⁶ particles, was supposed both to curb⁷ greenhouse gases and limit pollution. In practice, Europe tried to ignore an inconvenient⁸ truth about the latter: the UK government was last week instructed by a court to cut diesel fumes⁹ in cities faster than it had planned.

节能柴油配有限制一氧化氮微粒排放的排气过滤器，本应减少温室气体和污染物的排放。实际上，欧洲试图忽视有关后者的一个让人不敢面对的事实：一家法庭上周敦促英国政府以比原计划更快的速度减少城市的柴油废气。

No one could fail to notice such fumes in China. About one-third of the pollution that clogs¹⁰ the skies in cities such as Beijing and Chongqing comes from internal combustion¹¹ engines as their citizens turn to driving. By the mid 2020s, Chinese consumers could be buying 40m cars a year, twice the number likely to be bought by Americans.

任何人都无法不关注中国的汽车废气。随着居民纷纷开车上路，笼罩在北京和重庆等城市上空的约三分之一的污染来自内燃机。到2025年左右，中国消费者每年的汽车购买量可能会达到4000万辆，是美国人的两倍。

It is a problem but also an opportunity. China is already doing what countries such as the UK are being forced to consider: it is banning heavily polluting cars from cities by auctioning¹² the right to own vehicle number plates while allowing “new energy vehicles” such as electric cars and plug-in electric hybrids¹⁴ an open road.

这是个问题，但也是个机遇。中国已在采取英国等国被迫思考的措施：中国正通过拍卖汽车号牌所有权，禁止重污染汽车在城市行驶，同时允许电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车等“新能源汽车”无限制上路。

As a result, although the global electric car market is still tiny, it is most advanced in China, where 330,000 new energy vehicles were sold last year. Many of them are bought by local governments and state-owned enterprises for use as delivery vans, or in local ride-sharing schemes, thus giving China’s green carmakers a kick start.

因此，尽管全球电动汽车市场的规模很小，但在中国发展的最快，去年中国销售的新能源汽车有33万辆。其中很多由地方政府和国有企业购买，用作箱式送货车或用于地方拼车计划，这让中国的环保汽车制造商得以起步。

These vehicles are not Teslas: many are quite basic. But they are handing China first-mover advantage in the regulation, technology and manufacturing of electric cars. While Europe’s car-makers and suppliers that specialised in diesel must now rethink, Chinese companies such as BYD and Anhui Jianghuai (JAC) occupy a sweet spot.

这些汽车不是特斯拉(Tesla)：很多都非常初级。但它们在电动汽车的监管、技术和生产方面赋予了中国先行优势。比亚迪(BYD)和安徽江淮汽车(JAC)等中国企业已占据了有利位置，而专门生产柴油汽车的欧洲汽车制造商和供应商现在必须反思。

Diesel was under threat before the VW scandal: the tightening¹⁵ of European emissions standards will make it much more expensive for carmakers to offer diesel cars, levelling the price gap with electric vehicles. AlixPartners, the consultancy, expects diesel cars to account for only 9 per cent of European sales by 2030, compared with 56 per cent five years ago.

在大众汽车丑闻之前，柴油汽车面临危险：欧洲排放标准的收紧将大大提高汽车制造商生产柴油汽车的成本，这将拉平与电动汽车的价格差距。咨询公司艾睿铂(AlixPartners)预计，到2030年，柴油汽车将仅占到欧洲汽车销量的9%，5年前为56%。

The limited range of electric cars, and lack of convenient recharging stations, has until now put off most buyers. Plug-in hybrids, such as the Chevrolet Volt¹⁶ and BMW 330e, make up for that by having two engines — one combustion and one electric. But this requires a lot of costly¹⁷ components¹⁸ from sophisticated European and US suppliers, such as Robert Bosch and Delphi.

到目前为止，电动汽车车型有限以及缺乏便利的充电设施让多数购买者望而却步。为了弥补这点，插电式混合动力汽车（例如雪佛兰伏特(Chevrolet Volt) 和宝马(BMW)的330e）配备了两个引擎（一个是内燃机，一个是电动发动机）。但这需要很多昂贵的来自欧美高级供应商的零配件，例如罗伯特.博世(Robert Bosch)和德尔福(Delphi)。

Pure electric vehicles are simpler and do not need the same array of components. Battery advances mean that they should be able to drive up to 600km on one charge by 2020, the range VW promises for its proposed ID car. They would then be more appealing.

纯电动汽车更为简单，不需要同样多的零配件。电池技术的进步意味着到2020年，电动汽车一次充电可行驶最高600公里，这是大众汽车为其ID电动概念车承诺的目标。到那时，电动汽车就更具吸引力了。

This provides the opportunity for China to leapfrog US and western technology in the same way that some developing countries adopted mobile smartphones before fixed¹⁹ networks were built. The Chinese government knows it: the five-year plan unveiled in April heavily endorses²⁰ green technology.

这为中国超越美国和西方技术提供了机会，就像一些发展中国家在固话网络建成前跳跃到移动智能手机一样。中国政府明白这点：4月公布的5年规划大力支持环保技术。

China has an industrial stake in electric vehicles. While international carmakers tend to buy batteries produced by Japanese and South Korean companies, Chinese companies use Chinese suppliers including BYD and Amperex Technology. China’s lack of top-tier suppliers for combustion engines components matters less in electric.

电动汽车对于中国工业有着重要意义。国际汽车制造商往往会购买由日本和韩国公司生产的电池，中国企业则使用包括比亚迪和新能源科技(Amperex Technology)在内的中国供应商的产品。中国在内燃机零配件方面没有一线供应商，但这在电动汽车领域不那么重要。

The VW scandal does not eliminate every advantage of European manufacturers and suppliers. A simple form of hybrid¹³ engine involving more powerful electronics is one alternative to diesel: UBS, the investment bank, estimates that 48-volt mild hybrid technology will be a EURO4bn market by 2020.

大众汽车尾气排放丑闻没有完全消除欧洲制造商和供应商的优势。使用更强大电路的简单形式的混合动力发动机是一种取代柴油的选择：投行瑞银(UBS)估计，到2020年，48伏微混电动技术市场的规模将达到40亿欧元。

Nor will China’s carmakers have it all their own way at home. About 95 per cent of electric cars sold in China last year were made by Chinese companies, according to Automotive Foresight²¹ Shanghai, a consultancy. As carmakers such as VW and Nissan focus more heavily on China, that is bound to fall. VW is planning an electric vehicle joint venture with JAC.

中国汽车制造商将无法在国内自得其乐。上海咨询公司Automotive Foresight称，去年，在中国销售的电动汽车中，大约95%由中国企业生产。随着大众和日产(Nissan)等汽车制造商加大对中国的关注，这个数字肯定会下滑。大众汽车正计划与江淮汽车组建一家电动汽车合资公司。

But China has plenty of levers to pull. Just as Europe’s dominance in diesel emerged from tight regulation of carbon emissions, China can lead the global electric vehicle market through force majeure. Its city-based experiments with electric transport have been a mixed bag but it will keep trying.

然而，中国有很多筹码。正如欧洲在柴油领域的主导地位来自于对碳排放的严格监管，中国可以通过强制引领全球电动汽车市场。中国以城市为基础的电动汽车交通尝试一直好坏参半，但中国将继续努力。

The danger for VW and other Europeans is of becoming stuck in the past, over-invested in diesel when the future is electric. Mr Pötsch’s earlier behaviour is not really the difficulty.

大众汽车和其他欧洲汽车厂商的危险在于，在未来方向是电动汽车之际，它们沉迷于过去，在柴油领域投资过度。大众汽车监事会主席波什之前的行为实际上并非难题。