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当前位置:首页 -> 9级英语阅读 - > 通缩也许并不可怕 风险与机遇并存
通缩也许并不可怕 风险与机遇并存
添加时间:2015-02-17 10:17:56 浏览次数: 作者:未知
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  • Our perception that inflation is the normal condition is no more than a reflection of the experience of people alive today. In 1913, unlike now, a pound or a dollar would have bought the same goods as a century earlier. The longest semi-official price series we have reports a 140 fold rise in prices in the UK since 1750 — but even then all the increase up to 1938 is accounted for by inflation during the Napoleonic and first world wars. Indeed, while the price level roughly doubled during both these episodes, it fell slightly over the rest of the period.

    我们对于通胀是常态的观念,只是反映了当今在世的人们的经验。不同于现在,1913年时1英镑或1美元能够买到与一个世纪前同样的商品。我们拥有的最长的半官方价格序列显示,自1750年以来英国物价上涨了140倍,但即便如此,截至1938年的所有上涨均可归因于拿破仑战争以及第一次世界大战期间的通胀。的确,尽管物价水平在这两次战争期间大致都翻了一番,但在其他时期略有下降。

    This historical perspective may offer a partial antidote1 to the fears of investors2 over the arrival of deflation in Europe, where a euro today buys more than a year ago. But there are other reasons not to panic. For one, there is no qualitative3 difference between an economy in which prices are rising slightly and one in which prices are falling slightly. Unlike water, liquid at temperatures above 0C and solid below, the consumer price index is a complex statistical4 construct not a physical fact. You can see and feel the difference between ice and water, and you can skate on one but not the other. Similarly, with a commodity such as petrol, you can tell whether the price at the pump is rising or falling because petrol is a homogeneous product that changes little over time.

    这一历史视角可能在一定程度上缓解投资者对于通缩降临欧洲的担忧,如今1欧元在欧洲的购买力已超过1年前的水平。但还有其他理由让人们不必恐慌。首先,物价缓慢上涨与物价缓慢下跌的两个经济体之间没有本质区别。与水(0摄氏度以上为液体,以下为固体)不同,消费者价格指数(CPI)是一个复杂的统计模型,而非物理事实。你可以看到并感觉到冰与水的不同,而且冰上可以滑行,水上不行。同样地,对于汽油这类商品,你可以在加油站看出其价格是升还是降,因为汽油是一种随时间推移变化很小的同质产品。

    But what has been happening with cars, or smartphones, or medical services? In the CPI, the price component5 for cars comprises the sticker price adjusted for changes in quality. Such quality adjustment is subjective6 — and, it is generally conceded, too low. So we could have been experiencing deflation for years without realising it.

    但是,汽车、智能手机或是医疗服务发生了什么变化呢?在消费者价格指数中,汽车价格构成中包括根据品质变化而调整的标牌价格。此类品质调整是主观的,而且被普遍认为太低。因此,我们可能多年经历通缩,但对它毫无察觉。

    Moreover, the surface of a pond will be cold enough to skate on when the average temperature of the whole pond (ice on the surface and water beneath) is well above zero. With a good deal of effort you could compute7 the average temperature of the entire contents of the pond. But the answer will not tell you whether it is safe to skate.

    此外,当整个水池(表面是冰,下面为水)的平均气温高于0摄氏度时,水池表面的温度可能冷到可以滑行。你如果煞费苦心,可以计算出水池全部水体的平均温度。但这一答案不会告诉你在结冰的表面滑冰是否安全。

    The central point is that the significance of a fall in a price index depends on the causes of that fall. The declining price level in the second half of the 19th century was the result of rising manufacturing productivity and the opening up of new lands, particularly in North America. Global grain prices tumbled from the end of the US civil war until the 1890s. This raised real industrial incomes in more advanced economies but also reduced agricultural rents — the beginning of the end for the Old World’s landed aristocracy. The 19th century technological8 developments and shifts in global trade patterns have obvious parallels today in the development of a digital economy and the rise of China, which have similarly contributed to the fall in the inflation rate since 1980.

    问题的核心在于,价格指数下降的重要性取决于下降的原因。19世纪后半叶物价水平的下跌是制造业生产率提高以及新增开垦土地(尤其是在北美)的结果。全球谷物价格从美国内战结束至1890年代一直在下跌。这既提高了更发达经济体的实际工业收入,也减少了农业租金——旧世界的土地贵族由此开始走向衰亡。19世纪的科技进步和全球贸易格局变化,与当今数字经济的发展以及中国的崛起明显相似,后两者促进了自1980年以来通胀率的下降。

    On the other hand the deflation, and the associated depression and social strife9, that Britain experienced between the world wars was largely the result of a misguided attempt to restore the 1914 exchange rate against the dollar. Prices in Britain fell steadily10 after 1920 until President Franklin Roosevelt finally wrecked11 the gold standard at the London Conference on exchange rate stabilisation in 1933.

    另一方面,英国在两次世界大战间隔期间所经历的通缩(以及伴随而来的萧条和社会冲突),主要是一项旨在恢复1914年时英镑/美元汇率的误入歧途的尝试所致。英国的物价在1920之后不断下降,直至美国总统富兰克林•罗斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)最终在1933年讨论汇率稳定的伦敦会议上破坏了金本位制。

    This dismal12 economic policy and economic performance finds modern parallels, too — here, in the travails13 of the eurozone. Falling prices have often been associated with economic transformations14 or recessions; but, contrary to the fears and hopes of investors, price deflation is the effect rather than the cause.

    这种糟糕的经济政策和经济表现在现代也有影子,欧元区的艰难处境就是一例。物价下跌往往伴随着经济转型或衰退;但与投资者的担忧和希望相反,物价下跌是结果,而非原因。

    The development that is tipping western economies into “deflation”, defined as a negative year-on-year change in CPI, is the fall in energy prices, which is good news for importing countries.

    导致西方经济体进入“通缩”(消费者价格指数同比负增长)的事态是能源价格的下降,但这对能源进口国是个好消息。

    Raised body temperature might be a sign of fever or the result of a relaxing hot bath: it is wise to determine which it is before you start to worry, far less prescribe remedies.

    体温升高可能是发烧的征兆,也可能是洗了一个让人放松的热水澡的结果:在开始担忧之前先确定原因是明智的,而急着开处方补救是不可取的。

     9级    英文科普 


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    1 antidote [ˈæntidəʊt] 4MZyg   第9级
    n.解毒药,解毒剂
    参考例句:
    • There is no known antidote for this poison. 这种毒药没有解药。
    • Chinese physicians used it as an antidote for snake poison. 中医师用它来解蛇毒。
    2 investors [ɪn'vestəz] dffc64354445b947454450e472276b99   第8级
    n.投资者,出资者( investor的名词复数 )
    参考例句:
    • a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
    • a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会
    3 qualitative [ˈkwɒlɪtətɪv] JC4yi   第7级
    adj.性质上的,质的,定性的
    参考例句:
    • There are qualitative differences in the way children and adults think. 孩子和成年人的思维方式有质的不同。
    • Arms races have a quantitative and a qualitative aspects. 军备竞赛具有数量和质量两个方面。
    4 statistical [stə'tɪstɪkl] bu3wa   第7级
    adj.统计的,统计学的
    参考例句:
    • He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table. 他用统计表显示价格的波动。
    • They're making detailed statistical analysis. 他们正在做具体的统计分析。
    5 component [kəmˈpəʊnənt] epSzv   第7级
    n.组成部分,成分,元件;adj.组成的,合成的
    参考例句:
    • Each component is carefully checked before assembly. 每个零件在装配前都经过仔细检查。
    • Blade and handle are the component parts of a knife. 刀身和刀柄是一把刀的组成部分。
    6 subjective [səbˈdʒektɪv] mtOwP   第7级
    a.主观(上)的,个人的
    参考例句:
    • The way they interpreted their past was highly subjective. 他们解释其过去的方式太主观。
    • A literary critic should not be too subjective in his approach. 文学评论家的看法不应太主观。
    7 compute [kəmˈpju:t] 7XMyQ   第7级
    n.计算,估计;vt.计算;估算;用计算机计算;vi.计算;估算;推断
    参考例句:
    • I compute my losses at 500 dollars. 我估计我的损失有五百元。
    • The losses caused by the floods were beyond compute. 洪水造成的损失难以估量。
    8 technological [ˌteknə'lɒdʒɪkl] gqiwY   第7级
    adj.技术的;工艺的
    参考例句:
    • A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change. 一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
    • Today, the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements. 当今,随着科技进步,生活节奏不断增快。
    9 strife [straɪf] NrdyZ   第7级
    n.争吵,冲突,倾轧,竞争
    参考例句:
    • We do not intend to be drawn into the internal strife. 我们不想卷入内乱之中。
    • Money is a major cause of strife in many marriages. 金钱是造成很多婚姻不和的一个主要原因。
    10 steadily ['stedɪlɪ] Qukw6   第7级
    adv.稳定地;不变地;持续地
    参考例句:
    • The scope of man's use of natural resources will steadily grow. 人类利用自然资源的广度将日益扩大。
    • Our educational reform was steadily led onto the correct path. 我们的教学改革慢慢上轨道了。
    11 wrecked ['rekid] ze0zKI   第7级
    adj.失事的,遇难的
    参考例句:
    • the hulk of a wrecked ship 遇难轮船的残骸
    • the salvage of the wrecked tanker 对失事油轮的打捞
    12 dismal [ˈdɪzməl] wtwxa   第8级
    adj.阴沉的,凄凉的,令人忧郁的,差劲的
    参考例句:
    • That is a rather dismal melody. 那是一支相当忧郁的歌曲。
    • My prospects of returning to a suitable job are dismal. 我重新找到一个合适的工作岗位的希望很渺茫。
    13 travails [trəˈveɪlz] 95056a2da4e326571f15f3d4cf11e9ad   第11级
    n.艰苦劳动( travail的名词复数 );辛勤努力;痛苦;分娩的阵痛
    参考例句:
    • In the and travails of businesses you'll always need hometown help. 就算你的业务扩大到其他城市,也不要忘了你的发源地。 来自互联网
    • Tata Motor's travails with Land Rover and Jaguar spring to mind as recent less-than-favorable examples. 印度塔塔汽车公司对陆虎和捷豹品牌的辛苦收购就是最近一个不如人意的例子。 来自互联网
    14 transformations [trænsfə'meɪʃnz] dfc3424f78998e0e9ce8980c12f60650   第7级
    n.变化( transformation的名词复数 );转换;转换;变换
    参考例句:
    • Energy transformations go on constantly, all about us. 在我们周围,能量始终在不停地转换着。 来自辞典例句
    • On the average, such transformations balance out. 平均起来,这种转化可以互相抵消。 来自辞典例句

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