Not so long ago, the US believed it had cracked the violent crime epidemic¹. “Zero tolerance²” and “three strikes and you’re out” were the mantras of the 1990s. Declining homicide rates were its product. Today, as the riots intensify³ in Baltimore following the death of yet another unarmed black man in police custody⁴, such verities⁵ no longer hold.

不久之前，美国曾相信自己已经攻克了暴力犯罪这种流行病。“零容忍”和“三振出局”是美国社会上世纪90年代反复重申的信条，其结果是凶杀率下降。如今，信条已失效。在巴尔的摩，又一名手无寸铁的黑人男性在被警察局拘留期间死亡，之后爆发的骚乱正愈演愈烈。

With 2.3m people behind bars, zero tolerance has delivered the largest incarcerated⁶ population in the world. US prisons are fuller than those of autocratic China, which has a population more than four times as big. It has also unpicked some of the gains of the 1960s civil rights era. Tens of thousands of black men are in jail for offences that merit little more than a slap on the wrist for their white counterparts. It is little use pointing to the fact that the US has elected its first black president. A generation believes it has been stigmatised and their complaints ignored. As Martin Luther King said before he was assassinated⁷ in 1968: “A riot is the language of the unheard.”

美国有230万人在监狱，“零容忍”政策产生了全世界最大的囚犯人口。美国的监狱比威权制度下的中国还要满，而中国人口是美国的4倍多。这一政策还让上世纪60年代民权运动时代取得的部分进步付之东流。数万名黑人男性因为微小的过错坐牢，而犯同样过错的白人男性受到的责罚不会比打手心重多少。美国选出了首位黑人总统也说明不了什么。一代黑人认为自己背负着烙印，他们的不满无人理会。如马丁•路德•金(Martin Luther King) 1968年遇刺前所说：“暴动是不被倾听者的语言(A riot is the language of the unheard)。”

Yet amid the gloom, there are signs that US politics is coming to terms with the scale of the challenge. Bill Clinton, who as president was the chief author of the 1990s penal⁸ reforms, recently admitted they had “overstepped the mark”. In his day, no politician could afford to be seen as “soft on crime”. Today, both parties accept the need to reduce the US jail population and give those with criminal records a fairer chance at starting over.

然而黑暗中的一抹亮色是，有迹象显示，美国政界已开始应对这个巨大的难题。比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)担任总统时曾是上世纪90年代刑罚改革的主要推动者。最近他承认，当时的做法“过头了”。在他担任总统的那个年代，任何一位政界人士如被视为“对犯罪心慈手软”，都难以承担这带来的政治后果。如今，两党都认同需要减少美国囚犯人数、给那些有过犯罪记录的人更公平的重新做人的机会。

This is a positive change. Not only has the creeping militarisation of US police forces failed to sustain the fall in the homicide rate. It has created a culture of impunity⁹ that has led to several hundred shootings of unarmed civilians¹⁰ every year. Only a fraction involved are held to account. Little wonder that so many communities — from Ferguson, Missouri to Baltimore, Maryland — feel alienated¹¹ from those who are meant to protect them. Little wonder, too, that many black men feel shut off from the opportunities that society gives to others. The question is: what to do about it?

这是一个积极的变化。美国警方的悄然军事化不仅未能让凶杀率持续下降，反而制造了一种逍遥法外的文化，导致每年有数百名手无寸铁的平民被枪杀。只有一小部分涉事者被要求承担责任。难怪，从密苏里州的弗格森到马里兰州的巴尔的摩，很多地方的人们与本应保护他们的警察产生隔阂。难怪，许多黑人男性觉得自己被排除在社会给予其他人的机会之外。问题是：该怎么办？

The most important step is to grasp the complexity¹² of the challenge. Following the shooting of Michael Brown, an unarmed 18-year-old in Ferguson last summer, Barack Obama set up a task force on 21st-century policing. Its recommendations were laudable but abstract. The report focused on the need to rebuild trust between the police and their communities. Other groups believe it should be mandatory¹³ for police on patrol to wear body cameras.

最重要的是承认挑战的复杂性。继去年夏天18岁、手无寸铁的迈克尔•布朗(Michael Brown)在弗格森遭枪杀后，巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)成立了“21世纪警务工作特别小组”(Task Force on 21st Century Policing)。这个小组的建议值得称赞，但缺乏实际价值。它的报告聚焦于如何重建警察和社区之间的信任。一些其他团体则认为应强制警察巡逻时佩戴随身摄像机。

More encouraging are proposals to overhaul¹⁴ the penal system. US drugs laws are counterproductive. In some parts of America young whites can now legally smoke marijuana. In others, black men face life in jail for possessing it. So too is the three strikes rule adopted by half of US states. The statistics on mandatory sentencing are clear. It is racially biased¹⁵ and must be ended. Non-violent offenders¹⁶ should also be able to purge¹⁷ their records. Here too, there are hopeful signs. The ultraconservative Koch brothers recently joined the “ban the box” movement where employers refrain from asking about an applicant’s criminal record until later in the interview process.

更令人鼓舞的是全面改革美国刑罚制度的建议。美国的毒品法实际上起了反作用。在美国的部分地区，白人青年现在可以合法吸食大麻，而在其他地区，黑人青年仅仅拥有大麻就会面临终身监禁。美国半数州所采取的“三振出局法”也是如此。有关强制判决的一些数据清楚显示它存在种族偏见，因此必须终结。非暴力罪犯也应能清除他们的犯罪记录。好在这里也有希望的曙光。极端保守的科赫(Koch)兄弟最近加入了“禁止查问”(ban the box)运动，该运动倡导雇主不询问求职者的犯罪记录，直到进入后期的面试程序。

Then there is the question of leadership. For understandable reasons Mr Obama has been reticent¹⁸ about the scale of young black alienation¹⁹ in the US. Now he has little to lose. In the 1950s and 1960s, a potentially radical²⁰ generation was channelled towards constructive²¹ protest by inspirational leaders. Mr Obama is the only figure who can do the same today. Of all presidents, this one cannot afford to leave a legacy²² of simmering racial tension.

再就是领导人的问题。出于可理解的原因，奥巴马对美国黑人青年的异化程度一直保持沉默。但现在他已经没什么好损失的。20世纪50年代和60年代，美国富有感召力的领导人将一代可能会走向激进主义的年轻人引向更具建设性的抗议。现在能办到这一点的人只有奥巴马。在历任美国总统中，他最不该留下让种族冲突继续发酵的政治遗产。