A set of proposed regulations for China’s online ride-hailing industry are shaping up as a bellwether¹ of how much internet “disruption” Beijing will tolerate — and are being closely watched by the country’s biggest tech companies.

为中国网络约租车行业制定的一系列拟议中的监管规定即将成型，它们将体现出中国政府将在多大程度上容忍互联网的“颠覆”。中国最大的几家高科技企业正密切关注这些规定。

Last month the Ministry² of Transport published draft rules that would legalise the nascent³ sector⁴ but could also stifle⁵ it with bureaucratic⁶ red tape, and gave the industry one month to respond.

上个月，中国交通部公布了相关规定的《征求意见稿》，并给了该行业1个月的回应时间。这些规定会赋予这个新生行业合法性，但也可能会令该行业被官僚主义繁文缛节所扼杀。

That has thrown ride-hailing companies including San Francisco-based Uber and Didi Kuaidi, its local competitor, into a behind-the-scenes lobbying effort over the new rules, which could raise their costs prohibitively.

相关规定《征求意见稿》的公布，让包括优步(Uber)和滴滴快的(Didi Kuaidi)在内的叫车应用企业，被迫加入了围绕新规定的一轮幕后游说活动（新规定可能会让它们的运营成本提高到无利可图的地步）。优步是一家总部驻旧金山的企业，而滴滴快的则是它在中国国内的竞争者。

The sector’s potential is huge. Didi, in an investor⁷ presentation in June, predicted that the Chinese ride-hailing market would be worth $50bn annually⁸ by 2020. Travis Kalanick, Uber’s chief executive, reckons China accounts for 30 per cent of his company’s rides worldwide and will overtake the US by year-end.

该行业的潜力是巨大的。滴滴打车(Didi)在今年6月一次向投资者做的报告中预计，到2020年，中国叫车应用市场每年的规模或达到500亿美元。优步首席执行官特拉维斯愠灓尼克(Travis Kalanick)估计，中国占优步全球出车次数的30%，今年年底以前，中国的出车次数将超过美国。

But the regulatory environment is a wild card. It is technically⁹ illegal for private cars to operate as taxis in China, though enforcement is patchy.

不过，中国的监管环境却是个巨大的变数。理论上说，把私家车当做出租汽车运营在中国是违法的——尽管这方面的执法非常松散。

More important, experts see the car-hailing rules as precedent¹⁰ setting. As companies including Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu push into heavily regulated, state-dominated sectors¹¹ from finance to healthcare, the taxi industry is where many of the battles over regulation are being fought.

更重要的是，专家们认为，这些叫车服务法规会确定先例。在包括阿里巴巴(Alibaba)、腾讯(Tencent)和百度(Baidu)在内的企业进入一个个受到严格监管、由政府主导的行业——从金融业到医疗保健业——之际，出租车行业是围绕监管的斗争的一个主战场。

Car-hailing regulations “will be an indicator¹², a precedent for things to come”, says Jenny Lee, Beijing-based managing partner at GGV Capital, which has invested in Didi Kuaidi.

叫车服务法规“将起指示作用，为将来的事情确立先例，”对滴滴快的进行投资的纪源资本(GGV Capital)管理合伙人李宏玮(Jenny Lee)表示。

“This is a space that all the big guys are in. It’s not a strategic sector, not finance, telecoms or media. The vested interests are local taxi companies, without a lot of political clout¹³. If this doesn’t open up, it’s bad news for the rest of the [internet] industry.”

“这是一个所有大公司都参与了的领域。这不是一个战略性行业——不是金融、电信，也不是媒体。既得利益者是没有太多政治影响力的地方出租车公司。如果这个领域不开放，这对其他（互联网）行业而言是个坏消息。”

The proposed framework would oblige internet apps to register all their cars as commercial vehicles, subjecting them to the same laws as taxis including a ban on vehicles older than eight years.

新规《征求意见稿》要求互联网叫车应用将所有接入平台的车辆登记为营运车辆，须遵守和出租车一样的法规，包括8年就得报废。

The new laws would require each driver’s car to be licensed¹⁴ separately rather than a being covered by a company licence. Both Uber and Didi say that roughly three-quarters of their drivers are part-time, and the new rules would force them off the road.

新规《征求意见稿》要求每个司机的车辆单独取得营运许可，不能仅由企业所获许可覆盖。优步和滴滴都表示，它们平台上大约有四分之三的司机都是兼职的，新规将迫使这些司机放弃提供服务。

“Part-time drivers and their vehicles should be allowed on the road in order to make the sharing economy really about sharing,” says Didi. The company says most of its drivers do four to five rides per day, and licensing¹⁵ as commercial vehicles “would make it prohibitive”.

滴滴表示：“建议给兼职司机和车辆留出发展空间……顺应和推动中国共享经济发展的大潮。”该公司表示，滴滴平台上75%的司机每天接单数不超过4单，如果要求网约专车车辆变更为营运性质，“可能使大部分兼职司机和车辆退出”。

Didi Kuaidi, formed in February by the merger¹⁶ of Didi Dache and Kuaidi Dache, is backed by Tencent and Alibaba, China’s two largest internet companies, which have a combined shareholding¹⁷ of around 25 per cent. It says it controls 83 per cent of the car-hailing market.

今年2月，滴滴打车和快的打车合并为滴滴快的。滴滴快的得到了中国最大的两家互联网公司腾讯(Tencent)和阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的投资，这两家公司共拥有滴滴快的约25%的股权。滴滴快的声称其控制了叫车市场83%的市场份额。

Uber, in which Chinese search engine Baidu holds an undisclosed stake, is in second place with a market share that Mr Kalanick puts at 30-35 per cent.

优步在市场份额方面位列第二，卡兰尼克称达到30%到35%。中国搜索引擎百度(Baidu)拥有优步的一部分股权，具体多少没有公开。

Both are optimistic about their staying power. Each expects to invest over $1bn this year in China, spent largely on subsidies¹⁸ aimed at grabbing market share.

滴滴快的和优步都看好自己的持久生存能力。两家公司都预计今年自己将对中国市场投资逾10亿美元，大部分用于补贴车资，其目的是夺取市场份额。

But there is no consensus¹⁹ in the government about how to oversee²⁰ the sector, which licensed taxi drivers complain costs them money and jobs.

但目前就如何监管这个行业，政府内部尚无共识，而有执照的出租车司机抱怨这个行业让他们蒙受了金钱损失，失去了工作机会。

Last month [October]Shanghai gave Didi the country’s first municipal operating licence after the company agreed to a far slimmer set of rules — a pilot programme many thought could be eventually rolled out across the country.

10月8日，在滴滴快的同意遵守一套精简得多的规则后，上海市向滴滴快的颁发了中国首张市级网络约租车平台资质许可证。很多人认为，这一试点最终可能推广至全国。

Optimism evaporated when the transport ministry just days later published its national rules.

乐观情绪没有持续多久——仅两天后，交通部便发布了全国性专车法规《征求意见稿》。

“There are some positive bases and we’re very encouraged,” says Didi. The draft framework “actually recognises the legal existence of the car-hailing industry — but legal within a pretty constrictive²¹ set of rules”.

滴滴表示，“有一些理由保持乐观，我们非常受鼓舞”，意见稿“实际承认了叫车行业存在的合法性——但只在一套限制相当严格的法规范围内具有合法性。”

In China, where respect for authority is good business practice, Didi and Uber have couched their dissent²² carefully. But citizen groups and experts on regulation — who claim to have no connection to the industry — have begun a loud campaign against the proposed rules.

在中国，尊重当局是对经营有益的做法，滴滴和优步表达异议时都非常谨慎。但民间组织和法规方面的专家——这些专家声称和该行业没有关联——已经开始积极发声反对关于专车法规的《征求意见稿》。

“There are massive flaws in the draft and it should not be enacted,“ wrote six economists²³ last month in an editorial in Caijing, a leading financial magazine, because “it will severely²⁴ hinder the development of the internet transportation²⁵ service industry”.

在中国主要财经类杂志《财经》上月的一篇评论中，六名经济学家写道，“《征求意见稿》存在重大缺陷，不应出台”，因为“这种缺陷将会严重阻碍网络约租车这种新型业态的发展”。

The outcry has forced the transport ministry into a public response.

这些抗议迫使交通部作出公开回应。

In an interview published by Xinhua, the official news agency, ministry inspector²⁶ Xu Yahua said that “as a key service industry, it is necessary to have a set of industry admittance regulations”.

官媒新华社发表了一篇对交通部运输服务司巡视员徐亚华的访谈。他在访谈中表示：“它作为一个关系人民群众出行安全的重要服务性行业，我们制定必要的市场准入条件和服务规范也是必须的。”

But he added: “As for exactly how this will be done, we need to listen to the suggestions from society, and gradually perfect it in practice.”

但他又说：“至于管理的具体尺度，我认为需要充分广泛地听取社会意见，也需要在实践基础上不断完善。”